Speaker
Description
Keywords: Conflict; Food security, Food system; Agriculture; Aid
Introduction
The Syrian crisis entered its 13th year, leaving 7 out of 10 Syrians in need of assistance (UNOCHA, 2024). This protracted crisis had several outcomes on the agriculture sector, such as damaged agricultural infrastructure, disrupted food value chains, and fluctuating food prices, which aggravated the food insecurity situation in the country that was previously “self-sufficient.”
This research fits the literature that studies the main factors associated with food insecurity in conflict regions. In the context of conflicts, assistance and aid demonstrated a favourite impact on households' food security (Romano et al. 2019; Brück et al. 2019). However, research provides evidence that farmers shift towards short-term, low-profitability activities in prolonged conflicts and focus on subsistence farming when the violence intensifies. Nevertheless, even with the shift towards subsistence farming, households’ consumption might not be affected (Bozzoli & Brück 2009), meaning that agriculture could become a coping mechanism in the face of food insecurity.
This paper aims to answer the following questions:
- Do humanitarian aid, especially agricultural interventions, help improve food and nutrition security during protracted crises?
- Can households engaging in agricultural and on-farm activities during wartime maintain good food security outcomes?
Methodology
We use data from the 2017 “Crop Production and Food Security Assessment in Syrian Rural Areas” household survey in Syria. A sample of 1,381 farmer households was selected from 12 Syrian Governorates using a stratified sampling technique. The interviews were conducted with the households’ heads using a structured questionnaire.
Three indicators are used to assess the status of food security: the Food Consumption Score (FCS); the Dietary Diversity Score (DDS); and the Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI). These indicators are the outcome variables in our empirical strategy. We test the assumption that households receiving assistance and having diversified agricultural production exhibit better food and nutrition security.
We estimate the impact of a set of independent variables on food security at the household level. We grouped these variables into household socio-economic characteristics (household head gender and age, household size, number of income sources, and off-farm income); farm characteristics (share of cultivated land of the total land size, number of cultivated crops, livestock ownership, and productive assets ownership); and conflict-related factors represented by the (in)ability of farmers to cultivate their lands due to conflict-related issues (lack of inputs, unavailability of funds, unavailability of irrigation sources, and safety and security situation induced in the region where they live).
Due to the endogenous nature of conflict, we used the instrumental variable two-stage least square technique (IV-2SLS) to analyze the data.
Findings
Results of the IV-2SLS models indicate that receiving any type of aid resulted in a significant increase in the food security indicators (FCS and DDS) while it did not show any significant impact on the rCSI. The positive impact of assistance on food security corroborates the findings of Doocey et al. (2016) in northern Syria and Romano et al. (2019) in Palestine.
Regarding agricultural and on-farm activities, all farm characteristics variables improved the FCS significantly. The larger the share of cultivated land and the higher the number of cultivated crops, the higher the FCS and DDS scores. Contrarily, the impact was negative for the rCSI, where larger cultivated areas were associated with lower food security. Several studies have highlighted the linkages between a good-functioning agriculture sector and better dietary diversity outcomes (Jones et al. 2014; Koppmair et al. 2017). Our sample results suggest that households in Syria are currently more inclined to produce short-term and low-profitability crops or low-cost crops. This is in line with the findings of Arias et al. (2019) and Bozzoli & Brück (2009).
Conclusion
Evidence from the literature suggests that households “learn to live amidst conflict” (Arias et al. 2019). This paper presented the results of a study conducted in Syrian rural areas in 2017. It contributes to the growing literature linking food security to assistance in the context of protracted crisis. Moreover, it provides evidence of the potential role of the agriculture sector in improving food security outcomes. Bozzoli & Brück (2019) found that maintaining on-farm activities during wartime could enhance the post-war welfare effects, which has a significant positive effect on the post-war reconstruction efforts.
This study has some limitations. More research should be dedicated to investigating the targeting of assistance programmes, by addressing social aspects (e.g gender of the household’s head or household’s poverty status ) and assistance type (food, cash or production assistance).
Syria's conflict has brought the country's economy to its knees. The agriculture sector could save the country. However, once the war ends, the country will undoubtedly be exposed to recovery challenges. A big issue will be how to enhance food security and build resilience through agri-food system rehabilitation during the post-war transition.
References
Arias MA, Ibáñez AM, Zambrano A. 2019. Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty. World Development 119:165–184.
Bozzoli C, Brück T. 2009. Agriculture, Poverty, and Postwar Reconstruction: Micro-Level Evidence from Northern Mozambique. Journal of Peace Research 46:377–397.
Brück T, D’Errico M, Pietrelli R. 2019. The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict. World Development 119: 203–223.
Doocy S, Tappis H, Lyles E, Witiw J, Aken V. 2017. Emergency Food Assistance in Northern Syria: An Evaluation of Transfer Programs in Idleb Governorate. Food and Nutrition Bulletin 38: 240–259.
Jones AD, Shrinivas A, Bezner-Kerr R. 2014. Farm production diversity is associated with greater household dietary diversity in Malawi: Findings from nationally representative data. Food Policy 46:1–12.
Koppmair S, Kassie M, Qaim M. 2017. Farm production, market access and dietary diversity in Malawi. Public Health Nutrition 20:325–335.
Romano D, Stefani G, Rocchi B, Fiorillo C. 2019. The impact of assistance on poverty and food security in a fragile and protracted-crisis context: the case of West Bank and Gaza Strip. Bio-based and Applied Economics 8: 21-61.
UNOCHA. 2024. Overview of the humanitarian response in the Syrian Arab Republic. Available from https://www.unocha.org/syrian-arab-republic. Accessed 2024.03.15.
