Speaker
Description
Land reforms are one of the most profound institutional changes in developing countries. Nevertheless, these reforms often fail, due to interruptions, reversals, and partial implementations. Unsuccessful land redistribution policies are likely to produce grievances and social unrest, further hindering economic development in areas with historically excluded populations such as peasants and indigenous groups. This paper analyzes the persistent effects of the Chilean land reform on a current indigenous self-determination conflict.
A substantial land redistribution process occurred in the study area but was entirely reverted due to a counter-reform following a military coup.
Using a detailed plot-level database, we find evidence of the persistent effects of this failed land reform on conflict.
Our results indicate that expropriated plots are at least four times more likely to be invaded and attacked between 1990 and 2021, an effect that extends beyond historically contested indigenous territories. The impact on these newly contested territories suggests that the land reform and counter-reform have a significant impact on the extensive margin of the current conflict.
These results are confirmed with instrumental variable estimates, based on our evidence that unexpected productivity shocks affected plot participation in the land reform. Potential channels explaining the results are the grievances of the failed reform, the implementation of current land restitution policies, and changes in the economic structure after the counter-reform.
| Keyword | Conflict Economics |
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