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Description
This paper examines the impact of infrastructure projects on conflicts in Africa using georeferenced data on infrastructure projects and conflict events at the spatial resolution of 0.1 degree× 0.1 degree for all of Africa between 2002 and 2019. Employing a spatial difference-in-differences design and instrumental variable strategy, we find that infrastructure projects, particularly roads, reduce high-intensity conflicts like battles. However, they also increase low-intensity conflicts such as riots and protests. The decrease in high-intensity conflicts is mainly attributed to reduced conflicts among stationary rebel groups, while the rise in low-intensity conflicts is concentrated in politically marginalized ethnic regions. We provide evidence that the opportunity cost channel is crucial in driving the relationship between infrastructure and high-intensity conflicts, while grievances play a significant role in low-intensity conflicts.
| Keyword | Conflict Economics |
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