Speaker
Description
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the impact of forced displacement on the labor market for hosts in four economies. Considering four key labor market outcomes, we seek to describe both aggregate effects and impacts on important groups of workers. The intention is to facilitate qualitative comparisons of impacts across economies with different economic and policy characteristics. We find that across the four economies, there are gains or no change in welfare in the aggregate in refugee-hosting communities – but in some cases, there are winners and losers in the short-term. Host workers in agriculture appear well-positioned to gain, highlighting the potential role of consumer demand for food in transmitting the effect of displacement into the labor market. Results further suggest that productivity gains may have contributed to gains in income. There is little evidence of adverse impacts on employment rates in host communities. Changes in sector and type of activity largely mirror shifts in welfare and suggest a tendency toward adaptation to the opportunities and challenges that result from refugee arrival. The arrival of displaced workers presents opportunities that deserve as much policy attention as is given to concerns about labor market competition. Even the arrival of large numbers of refugees makes little difference in aggregate employment outcomes, but distributional impacts require attention. While structural changes in host communities reflect a ‘move toward opportunity’ that policy could seek to support, the agriculture sector may often be well-positioned to provide additional opportunities in host communities.
