Sustainable Food Systems Symposium 2024

16 Sept 2024, 10:00 → 18 Sept 2024, 18:00 Europe/Berlin

Paulinerkirche

SustainableFoodSystems2024_CfA.pdf

Monday 16 September

13:00 Registration

Pre-Conference Workshop # 1: Communicating science despite Elon Musk

1 Communicating science despite Elon Musk

The workshop offers an interactive, hands-on introduction to science communication on social media. It will address issues such as choice of suitable channels, identifying audiences, communicator types/strategies and some more practical aspects. The focus will be on Twitter/X and related, text-based media. Participants are invited to contribute their specific interests and experiences.

Speaker: Dr Bartosz Bartkowski (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

Pre-Conference Workshop # 3: Turn your research into a visual summary and make your publications stand out

2 Turn your research into a visual summary and make your publications stand out!

Learn the process of creating a visual abstract, together with the key principles of design that will make your research stand out. Through a practical exercise, the assistants will follow the steps to visualize a concept and learn several important aspects they need to consider during the process.

During the workshop, we will go through the steps of creating a visual abstract and explain some basic principles of design. During the exercise, the assistants will work in groups and put into practice the explained concepts to brainstorm a visual abstract.

Speakers: Beatriz Herrera (Visuals in Science LAB), Lina Buitrago (Visuals in Science LAB)

Pre-Conference Workshop # 5: Decolonizing Research: Session 1

3 Decolonizing research (Session 1)

Scholars and activists from the Global South, particularly People of Color and Indigenous Peoples, have presented significant critiques regarding how knowledge production, especially within Western academic institutions, is intertwined with colonial hierarchies and power asymmetries. This workshop uses these critiques, often summarized as post- and decolonial perspectives, as a starting point to critically reflect on our own positionality within academic institutions and the power dynamics inherent in knowledge production. After providing a brief overview of the (im)possibilities of decolonizing research, the workshop will offer a series of tools designed to help expose the colonial implications within our own research—an essential precondition for any transformation toward more egalitarian knowledge production.

The workshop is divided in two sessions. Participation in both sessions is highly recommended but not required.

Speaker: Dr Sebastian Garbe

15:30 Coffee break

Pre-Conference Workshop # 2: The Science-Policy-Plate Nexus: Sustainable Diets and Food Futures

4 The Science-Policy-Plate Nexus: Sustainable Diets and Food Futures

What will we eat in the future? Will diets be strikingly similar to today or radically different? How can we create and enact policies to help guide people and populations towards sustainable diets? Workshop participants will engage with future food systems thinking in a hands-on, real-world example. The workshop will allow participants to reflect upon the process, needs, and challenges of designing and implementing policies for food systems change. A focus will be a diets and dietary change, with an emphasis on thinking through systemic barriers, enabling conditions and real-world outcomes.

Speaker: Dr Rachel Mazac

Pre-Conference Workshop # 4: Turn your research into a visual summary and make your publications stand out! (Repetition)

5 Turn your research into a visual summary and make your publications stand out! (Repetition)

Learn the process of creating a visual abstract, together with the key principles of design that will make your research stand out. Through a practical exercise, the assistants will follow the steps to visualize a concept and learn several important aspects they need to consider during the process.

During the workshop, we will go through the steps of creating a visual abstract and explain some basic principles of design. During the exercise, the assistants will work in groups and put into practice the explained concepts to brainstorm a visual abstract.

Speakers: Beatriz Herrera (Visuals in Science LAB), Lina Buitrago (Visuals in Science LAB)

Pre-Conference Workshop # 5: Decolonizing Research: Session 2

6 Decolonizing research (Session 2)

Scholars and activists from the Global South, particularly People of Color and Indigenous Peoples, have presented significant critiques regarding how knowledge production, especially within Western academic institutions, is intertwined with colonial hierarchies and power asymmetries. This workshop uses these critiques, often summarized as post- and decolonial perspectives, as a starting point to critically reflect on our own positionality within academic institutions and the power dynamics inherent in knowledge production. After providing a brief overview of the (im)possibilities of decolonizing research, the workshop will offer a series of tools designed to help expose the colonial implications within our own research—an essential precondition for any transformation toward more egalitarian knowledge production.

The workshop is divided in two sessions. Participation in both sessions is highly recommended but not required.

Speaker: Dr Sebastian Garbe

Tuesday 17 September

08:00 Registration

08:50 Openning ceremony - Welcome address

Plenary Session 1: Rob Vos (keynote 1) and Danielle Resnick (keynote 2)

7 Options for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture and food systems

Food systems generate about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, agriculture and agri-food supply chains are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Without reducing emissions from agriculture, food production, and land use change it will not be possible to stabilize the climate and keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5 degrees centigrade from pre-industrial levels. Soil degradation and deforestation caused by land use for agriculture have severely reduced nature’s capacity to act as a sink for absorbing GHG emissions. About 50 percent of agricultural emissions (in CO2eq) comes from methane, a super potent GHG, much of it coming from livestock production and rice cultivation.

Global scenario analysis suggests that, without drastic policy change, emissions will continue to grow rapidly. Ready-to-use technologies and sustainable farming practices exist that are climate resilient and have great potential to reduce emissions. Yet, such practices face low adoption rates and lack adaptation to local contexts. Existing public support policies provide the wrong incentives for adoption and fail to promote investment R&D for adaptation and packaging of ‘green” innovations.

This presentation reviews options for policy reform that would accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices and simultaneously pursue the objectives of climate protection and food security. Traditional approaches, like carbon taxes, are much less suited to agriculture where most emissions are not from combustion and are it is much more difficult to create incentives to change production techniques. The presentation therefore explores a range of potential options. The challenges of reform are also apparent in proposals for reforming (‘repurposing’) the vast existing public support (over US$800 billion per year) provided by governments worldwide to farm sectors and consumers. It can be shown that not only carbon taxes on agricultural production, but also rearranging agricultural subsidies to shift support towards low-emission agricultural commodity production at best have only very small impacts in terms of improving human and planetary health. Likewise, approaches that combine direct farm payments to adoption of organic farming practices (akin to payments for environmental services, PES) can be counterproductive if the environmental practices prove to lower yields and hence increase demand for agricultural land use and hence for land use change. Instead, investing more in R&D for sustainable intensification of agriculture focused on productivity enhancing innovations and their adaptation to local contexts combined with incentives (such as through PES) for the adoption and low-emission improvements in value chain efficiency (e.g., solar-powered cooled storage and transportation) have high potential to generate major efficiency gains, drastic reductions in emissions and improved food security. Therefore, policy makers should consider combinations of policy interventions to realign market incentives for the adoption and diffusion of climate resilient and emission reducing practices.

Speaker: Dr Rob Vos (IFPRI)

8 The Politics and Governance of Food Systems Transformation

While the need for a transformed food system that is healthier and more sustainable is increasingly well-recognized, the politics of adopting and implementing necessary policies to achieve these goals remains highly contentious. Policy reforms typically involve addressing trade-offs across interest groups and over time, reconciling opposing cultural and ideological beliefs, and navigating the distribution of power within extant institutions. This presentation will highlight key political economy constraints at the local, national, and global scales that require priority attention for the uptake of improved policies for food system transformation. In addition, it will consider the viability of possible solutions to overcome these constraints, including better sequencing and framing of policy options, forging coalitions and expanding networks, and transparency mechanisms that keep relevant stakeholders accountable for food systems performance over time.

Speaker: Dr Danielle Resnick (IFPRI)

10:00 Coffee break

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

9 Droughts, Agriculture, and the Economy: Time and Place Matter

Context: More frequent and more severe droughts are among the most visible consequences of climate change in drier regions of the world and a major challenge for global agriculture.

Objectives: We aim to measure drought damages to agricultural production more accurately across all countries and regions in the world from the 1960s until today.

Methods: We combine weather data with crop calendars and spatially explicit data on the production of different crops to create a measure of drought severity as felt in the agricultural sector. We validate the new measure of drought using crop-specific yield data from Brazilian municipalities, US counties, and Indian districts, as well as country-level data from the entire world.

Results: We show that when we take crop calendars and spatial production patterns into account, our measure of drought predicts larger yield losses at the municipal level and at the country-level than conventional measures of drought. Tentative results show little evidence of adaptation at the global level, but the global results mask significant heterogeneity across countries.

Implications: We find that the global effects of drought are larger than what is implied by conventional measures of drought otherwise used in the macro-literature. Our new data on droughts is useful for answering many additional research questions related to droughts.

Speaker: Mr Leonard Krapf (University of Göttingen)

10 The effects of digital yield monitoring on greenhouse gas emissions in the US

The effects of digital yield monitoring on greenhouse gas emissions in the US

Introduction

Digitalization in crop production likely affects the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture through several direct and indirect effects (Figure 1). Direct effects include more efficient use and therefore reductions of energy intensive inputs, such as fertiliser, plant protection, gasoline, and feed (D'Antonio et al., 2023). For example, GPS-led, self-driving tractors use less fuel (D'Antonio et al., 2023, Shockley et al., 2011, Jensen et al., 2012) and plant-specific input application requires less inputs (Finger et al., 2019, UNDP, 2021), and thus reduces emissions (Balafoutis et al., 2017). However, direct effects also include the initial set-up and energy use of digital infrastructure (García-Martín et al., 2019), which suggest an increasing effect of digitalization on emissions. Indirect effects result from cost reductions as a response to the direct effects because increasing levels of digitality lead quantities of other inputs to decrease. These cost reductions result in an increase in output quantity which can even cause a net increase of emissions (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014, Paul et al., 2019). Apart from the level of digitalization in crop production, a second key determinant of GHG emissions in agricultural production is the output quantity.

Figure 1: Causal linkages between digitalization and GHG emissions.

Given that some of those effects work in opposite directions, this study determines empirically which set of effects dominates, relying on a panel dataset at the US state level between 1996 and 2010.

Methodology

To account for time-varying, unobserved heterogeneity, the analysis employs a Group Fixed Effects (GFE, Bonhomme and Manresa, 2015) approach to estimate the effects of digitalization and output quantity on GHG emissions from agriculture. Given that relations between emissions and both production (Bennetzen et al., 2015) and digitalization (Kopp et al., 2023) may be non-linear and to also allow for interacting effects, both the measure of digitality in crop production and production quantities enter as linear and as squared terms, as well as in the form of an interaction term. To avoid omitted variable bias while accounting for heterogeneity over time in the unobserved effects, we include time-varying, Group Fixed Effects (Bonhomme and Manresa, 2015) and control for income per capita. The econometric model is given by the following equation:

in which CCpc,s,c,t represents climate gas i ∈ {N2O, CH4, CO2}, emitted in state s at time t. prods,c,t stands for output quantity of crop c and digiymi,s,c,t is the share of the cultivated area of crop c on which digital yield monitoring technologies are employed. GDPpc,s,t stands for per capita income, and GFEg,t are the year-specific, fixed effects of groups of the state-crop-combination g. The β parameters represent coefficients to be estimated and εs,c,t captures normally-distributed, zero-centred errors.

Data

The unit of observation is state-crop-year. Those data stem from different federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture (production quantities and spread of yield monitoring as a proxy for site specific fertilisation, pesticide application, etc.), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (methane and nitrous oxide emissions from production of specific crops), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (carbon dioxide emissions per state), and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP per state). All numbers enter the estimation as per-capita values.

Results and discussion

The estimation results are displayed in Table 1:

Table 1: Estimation results.

Given the quadratic relation between digitalization and emissions, the effects cannot be derived immediately by observing Table 1. We therefore differentiate the estimation equation with respect to the measure of digitalization and set it equal to zero to find the extremum of the respective parable. This procedure leads to the following extrema:

Table 2: Calculation of effects direction.

As the squared term is negative in the estimations of N2O and CH4, the respective functions are concave, indicating that the extreme values are maxima. For CO2, the squared term is statistically not significant, suggesting that the relation is linear. As for N2O and CH4, the maximum is below the median value of the measure for digitalization, the relation is decreasing at the sample median. For CO2, the linear effect is increasing.

Conclusions

The empirical analyses lead to the conclusion that for the case of methane and laughing gas, the productivity gains of digitalization in crop production reduce direct GHG emissions. In the case of carbon dioxide, the direct effects of the emissions generated through constructing and maintaining the digital infrastructure dominate over the reduced emissions from productivity gains.

References are not included in this abstract to save space.

Speaker: Thomas Kopp (University of Siegen)

11 Smallholder Welfare and Weather Extremes: Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Smallholder Welfare and Weather Extremes: Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Keywords: Climate change adaptation, household resilience, sustainable cocoa, agricultural practices

Introduction and Research Objective
Climate change is a major threat to food production systems (Wheeler and Braun 2013). Frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and high temperatures contribute to increased crop stress, while gradual temperature increases create favourable conditions for disease and pest outbreaks (Skendžić et al. 2021), both of which reduce crop productivity. At the same time, the majority of smallholder farmers in many developing countries depend on rain-fed crop production for their livelihoods, making them particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change (Cohn et al. 2017).
Against this background, there is an urgent need to identify strategies on how smallholder farmers can adapt to climate change and thereby increase their resilience to extreme weather events. The existing literature on smallholder climate change adaptation often relies on cross-sectional data, neglecting to account for the long-term effects of changing rainfall and temperature patterns (e.g. Amadu et al. 2020). Moreover, the majority of research has focused on seasonal crops like maize, millet or rice (e.g. Arslan et al. 2017) and the effects of agricultural practice related to climate change adaptation on perennial crops under differing climatic conditions are still poorly understood.
Here, we use panel data from smallholder cocoa farmers in Ghana to examine the effects of widely promoted agricultural practices related to climate change adaptation on agricultural and welfare outcomes. Further, we estimate how these effects differ under changing weather extremes. Specifically, we examine the effects of inter-cropping, synthetic fertilizer use, practices of integrated pest and weed management and the use of hybrid cocoa varieties on cocoa yield, cocoa and agricultural income and household dietary diversity.
Although Ghana is the world's second largest cocoa producer, its cocoa yields per hectare remain among the lowest in the world (FAO 2023). Reasons for low productivity are related to lack of knowledge on agricultural technologies and practices, lack of agrochemical inputs, ageing cocoa trees, depleted soils, and high pest and disease pressure (Bymolt et al. 2018). In addition, Ghana is at high risk of drought due to climate change, with projections indicating a further decline in climatic suitability for cocoa. This will have severe implications not only for Ghana’s economy which heavily relies on cocoa production but also for the livelihoods of millions of smallholder cocoa farmers (Ruf et al. 2015).
Methods
Data
We use two waves of household data collected in 2019 and 2022. To obtain our household data, we applied a multi-stage sampling strategy where we randomly selected 45 communities from five regions based on existing population census data. Our sample is based on a balanced dataset of 365 cocoa farming households. We use rainfall data from Chirps and temperature data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Anticipated Estimation Strategy
We will use a fixed-effects estimation approach to study the effects on our outcome variables. Furthermore, we will interact the agricultural practice variables with climate variables to estimate to which extent the effects differ in the presence of weather extremes.
Expected Results
We expect to find that synthetic fertilizer has a positive effect on cocoa, yet we anticipate that this effect may reduce during droughts due to potential limitations in nutrient absorption by cocoa tree roots. Furthermore, we expect inter-cropping to contribute significantly to additional agricultural income and enhance household dietary diversity. This positive effect is expected to intensify during extreme weather events, providing a compensatory source of income and nutrition when cocoa yields are adversely impacted. Regarding the utilization of hybrid crop varieties, we posit that their influence on overall cocoa yields may not be pronounced under normal weather conditions. However, we anticipate a positive turn in this effect during weather extremes, when traditional cocoa varieties struggle to survive. Lastly, we anticipate that integrated pest and weed management practices will positively affect cocoa yields, and that this positive effect persists even under weather extremes.
Expected Conclusion
We anticipate that the findings of our study will identify which agricultural practices related to climate change adaptation will improve agricultural and welfare outcomes and how these effects change under diverse weather extremes. From a policy perspective, our study will put emphasis on promoting practices which have proven to be most effective in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change.

Speaker: Marlene Wätzold (Georg-August University of Göttingen)

12 Economic performance of cocoa agroforestry systems in southern Bahia, Brazil

Keywords
Cocoa, Agroforestry, Sustainable agriculture, Agricultural productivity, Brazil

Introduction
Cocoa is an important agricultural commodity traded globally and with a constantly increasing demand. Cocoa production, however, is confronted with significant environmental and socio-economic challenges in tropical regions, due to its association with deforestation, biodiversity loss and prevailing poverty among farmers. To address these challenges, agroforestry has been proposed as a nature-based solution for promoting sustainability in the cocoa supply chain. However, many farmers are converting their shaded agroforests to more intensively managed systems by reducing the number of shade trees in an effort to secure short‐term income. This ongoing trend of management intensification jeopardizes the biodiversity conservation value of cacao agroforestry systems, while failing to ensure more stable household incomes. Understanding the economic performance of shade-tree management within cocoa agroforestry systems is crucial to address this challenge. While many studies compare cocoa agroforestry systems with monocultures, evidence on the economic effects of shade-tree management within agroforestry systems is lacking.
Objective
This study aims at investigating the economic performance of cocoa agroforestry systems in the region of southern Bahia (Brazil). We will evaluate the impact of shade-tree management in cocoa agroforestry systems on yields, costs and net income, and whether alternative (tree) crops in cocoa agroforestry systems may increase farmers’ income.

Method
Farm-household interviews are conducted among 300 cocoa farmers in February-March 2024 to collect socio-economic data. A quantitative structured questionnaire is used, with modules on farm-household demographics, land use management practices, cocoa production and commercialisation, other crops, other income sources, cooperative membership and certification, and biodiversity. Additionally, GPS coordinates and shade-tree density are measured at farm level, which allows merging survey data with available GIS data on climate, land cover and topography, and for ground-truthing of farmers’ assessment of shade tree density. Instrumental variable models (IV), using distance between the farm and the forest as IV, will be used to assess the impact of shade-tree density on cocoa yield, costs related to inputs, capital and labor, net cocoa income, income from other crop-produce and total household income.

Findings
Preliminary findings suggest that a lower shade-tree density in cocoa farming is likely to result in higher cocoa yields and gross revenues. However, it also leads to higher input expenses and less diversification in income sources, making farmers less resilient. Associated products from agroforestry systems do not directly translate into higher household income but positively contribute to farmers' livelihoods through self-consumption.

Conclusion
The research findings highlight the trade-offs between shade-tree management, cocoa revenue and income diversification in cocoa agroforestry systems and contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the challenges associated with intensified shade-tree management in cocoa agroforestry systems. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of implementing strategies that promote income diversification to strengthen the resilience of cocoa farmers. This comprehensive study sheds light on the multifaceted aspects of shade-tree management, offering insights for cocoa sustainability efforts, with relevance not only to the local region but also other cocoa-producing regions.

Speaker: Steffi Dekegel (Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain); Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade (PPGE/UESC); Antwerp Zoo Centre for Research and Conservation)

Food Markets and Supply Chains

13 Buyer competition and farm outcomes in the modernizing dairy sector of Punjab, India

Keywords : competition, dairy, supply chain, farm outcomes

Introduction
The dairy sector in Punjab, India has been growing and transforming rapidly in response to rising demand for milk and the increased attention to quality and safety. Some (mostly small) dairy farmers have left the business, others have scaled up and modernized, and new (mostly large) farms have entered. At the same time, also the market structure among processors and other milk buyers has evolved. In this paper, we rely on three rounds of panel data, covering the transformation of the Punjabi dairy sector over 15 years. Using data on farm-buyer relations and processor and buyer presence across different villages in Punjab, we propose a measure of buyer competition to evaluate its impact on farm outcomes.

The marketing channels in Punjab (buyer operation structures) can be categorized into formal and informal channels (referring to the 2023 scenario). The formal channels include private processing companies, cooperative organizations and farmer producer organizations. These companies or organizations mainly collect milk through village-level milk collection centers. The informal channels include local milk traders, sweet shops, households, hotels, restaurants, small-scale private milk collection centers and village-level grocery stores dealing with milk and dairy products.

Objective
The paper focuses on how changes in competition among milk buyers over space and time may benefit/harm dairy farmers. This goal will be achieved by studying three attributes: investigating intensity of competition over time, understanding the exit and entry decisions in depth considering the relations between milk buyers and milk producers and establishing a linkage between these elements of the dairy supply chain and farm growth (evolving herd size, adoption of modern technologies, income sustainability and changes in production capacities).

Method
The study examines 3-round panel (2008, 2015 and 2023) of farmer survey data which captures rapid modernization and restructuring of the dairy sector in Punjab. Over the period of 15 years, 1000 farming households have been tracked and interviewed (attrition in 2015 and 2023). The final panel consists of 739 households. Initial sampling of the villages was done in 2008. In 2008, Punjab was divided into five regions: the north-west (Amritsar and Gurdaspur), the north-east (Hoshiarpur, Jalandhar, Kapurthala and Nawanshahar), the south-west (Bathinda, Faridkot, Ferozepur, Moga and Muktsar), the south-east (Mansa, Patiala and Sangrur), and the central region (Fatehgarh Sahib, Ludhiana and Ropar). One district was selected at random from each region. Considering the concern of oversampling in smaller districts, the probability of selection was made proportional to the population share of the districts within the region. Active marketing channels were used for stratifying villages in these districts. Nestlé’s list of procurement villages, respective milk unions and cooperative sector cooling plants’ locations were considered while determining the marketing channels. These approaches concluded the selection of 15 “Nestlé villages”, 15 “cooperative villages”, five villages with operations of both Nestlé and cooperative companies, and 15 villages where none of them were operating (Janssen and Swinnen, 2019). These 50 villages were spread over Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana, Ferozepur and Mansa. With the recent district-level borders, few sampled villages are now in the districts of Fazilka and Tarn Taran too. In each village, 20 households were randomly selected and these households were categorized based on the herd size and the marketing channel. Over the years, these initial herd sizes and marketing channels have evolved and changed.

Information on members of the household, crop production, agricultural land ownership, other farm income sources, general farm expenses, dairy production, livestock inputs, milk and dairy products’ marketing, available channels for milk sales, relations with milk buyers and services received, evolution of milk production, investments in livestock and off-farm income have been collected over the 3 rounds.

We attempt to capture competition at each link of the supply chain. We calculate the average number of buyers a farmer faces at the village level. At the buyer level, we determine the average number of other buyers a particular buyer faces at the village level (downstream) and the average number of farmers a buyer faces to procure milk at the village level (upstream). For each village, we also take into account the active buyers in the surrounding areas. Here, we make an assumption if certain buyers in the surrounding villages are not known to the milk producers of the sampled village, these buyers cannot be potential channels for milk sales. Thus, the known buyers are considered potential competitors for the milk buyers operating in the sampled villages. Furthermore, we evaluate how the changes in the intensity of competition over time (determined by the number of active buyers in the sampled village and the number of potential buyers in surrounding villages) impact different farm outcomes using two-way fixed effects regression.

Findings
We find that greater competition intensity among the milk buyers to procure milk results in positive farm outcomes on an average. However, the herd size (number of dairy animals owned) of the milk producers (beneficiaries) determine the extent/scale of the benefits. Smallholder farmers are benefited minimally from intense competition and are significantly below the average benefit levels. Larger dairy farmers are benefited significantly from intense competition.

Conclusion
Punjab is already experiencing a decline in smallholder dairy farming. In the recent years, there are new larger entrants (milk processing companies) in the dairy sector of Punjab. Competition among the major state cooperatives, in particular, is intensifying while Nestlé stands as the largest private multinational dominating the dairy markets of Punjab. Without a minimum support price for milk, the question here remains for how long can smallholder dairy farmers sustain in this competitive dairy sector's environment with minimal/zero benefits. Transformation and modernization of the dairy sector in the light of increased competition for milk procurement promises a bright future for the large commercial dairy farmers and the medium-scaled dairy farmers (with further support for development and growth) but somewhat, a bleak future for the smallholder dairy producers of Punjab.

Reference
Janssen, E. and Swinnen, J., 2019. Technology adoption and value chains in developing countries: Evidence from dairy in India. Food Policy, 83, pp.327-336.

Speaker: Anusha De (LICOS, KU Leuven; DARE, UGOE)

14 Entrepreneurship, crop diversification, and commercialization: Evidence from small-scale farmers in Zambia

Value chain development is a market-focused approach that addresses market constraints and facilitates linkages between rural producers and urban consumers along agri-food chains. Agri-food chains, on the one hand, serve to feed a growing urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and on the other hand, provide income and business opportunities. Among small-scale farmers, commercialization and diversification of agricultural production systems are important for their food security and household welfare. Entrepreneurship in this context responds to push and pull factors – as a response to needs as well as opportunities. It is a vital component for the transformation of small-scale farming practices and rural economies (Nagler & Naudé, 2017). Entrepreneurship is also a catalyst for the two important agricultural development pathways: farm diversification and commercialization, which not only serve as a risk mitigation strategy against uncertain agricultural and market environments but also provide opportunities within agri-food chains for enhanced income generation (Barrett et al., 2001; Pellegrini & Tasciotti, 2014). It could be associated with increased specialization or requirement for entry into higher income-generating activities. Empirical evidence on entrepreneurship in farming overall is limited and mixed on the entrepreneurship, farm diversification, and commercialization nexus (e.g., Yoshida et al., (2020) and Cieslik and D’Aoust, (2018)).

This study examines the intensity of entrepreneurship and its impact on smallholder crop diversification and commercialization. It uses a 2021 cross-sectional dataset from 745 farming households in rural Zambia randomly sampled following a multi-stage sampling procedure. Zambia’s agriculture is dominated by subsistence cultivation of staple crops, mainly maize, by small-scale farmers. The study contributes to understanding the dynamics and impact of agricultural entrepreneurship by (1) examining correlates of smallholder entrepreneurship, measured using Miller's (1983) theoretical concept of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) – a broadly-validated multidimensional construct that is based on innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk propensity; (2) operationalizing crop diversification in five facets: (i) count (crop richness), (ii) Margalef’s measure of crop richness, (iii) Berger-Parker’s measure of relative abundance, (iv) Shannon’s measure of evenness, and (v) Simpson’s measure of proportional abundance (Smale, 2005). Following standard procedure, commercialization was operationalized by the ratio of crop sales to the total value of crop production and; (3) estimating the effect of entrepreneurship on crop diversification and commercialization using the generalized propensity score (GPS) to generate unbiased estimates of the dose-response function and an inverse probability-weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) as robustness check.

The result shows that smallholder entrepreneurship is positively associated with the number of active household members, market distance, asset ownership, connection with COMACO (an NGO), and cooperative membership. Further findings from the adjusted GPS parametric function reveal that the intensity of entrepreneurship has heterogeneous effects on various dimensions of crop diversification. The expected values of the count, Margalef, Berger-Parker, and Shannon indices have lower values at lower levels of entrepreneurship (up to EO = ~0.5), but rise sharply above that point. This finding is consistent with those reported by Yoshida et al. (2020), implying that farmers’ crop count, richness, relative abundance, and evenness increase as they become more entrepreneurial. In contrast, higher levels of EO do not increase the Simpson index, suggesting that the crop’s proportional abundance is unaffected by smallholder entrepreneurship.

A different remark is found for overall crop commercialization in the study area. The result demonstrates that as entrepreneurship rises (until EO = ~0.7), the expected value of total commercialization increases, after which it does not translate into increased commercialization. We further find that smallholder entrepreneurship has heterogeneous effects on different crop commercialization, with the effects being more pronounced for maize and soybean than other crops. These findings are robust to alternative entrepreneurship measures and methodological specifications using IPWRA.

The study concludes that entrepreneurship is pivotal for various dimensions of smallholder crop diversification and commercialization. Thus, to diversify and commercialize their crops, smallholders would need to adopt a strategic stance by taking on somewhat risky choices and engaging in proactive farming and marketing innovations. To achieve this, policymakers should prioritize the entrepreneurial training of farming households. Such intervention should both encourage and guide smallholders on the value of being innovative and proactive. This can be done by working with social reference points in farmer’s cooperatives and locally recognized organizations like COMACO. Moreover, policy should encourage the fair provision of productive assets and infrastructure (e.g., property rights, broadcast media, and electricity) that would boost smallholders’ propensity to take risks, as entrepreneurship depends on the household’s asset endowment. Given that active household members (aged 18-64) are important drivers of entrepreneurship, these initiatives should target not only the household heads but also other active members in rural households.

Despite the limitations of the study in terms of the relatively small cross-sectional dataset, the practical significance of the study is in its focus on the nuanced analysis of entrepreneurship, diversification, and commercialization nexus, which can contribute to the expansion of small-scale agribusinesses and the further creation of value chain development interventions.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial orientation, crop diversification, on-farm commercialization, small-scale farmers, Africa, Zambia

Main references
Cieslik, K., & D’Aoust, O. (2018). Risky Business? Rural Entrepreneurship in Subsistence Markets: Evidence from Burundi. European Journal of Development Research, 30(4), 693–717. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-017-0100-9
Miller, D. (1983). The Correlates of Entrepreneurship in Three Types of Firms. Management Science, 29(7), 770–791. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.7.770
Morris, W., Henley, A., & Dowell, D. (2017). Farm diversification, entrepreneurship, and technology adoption: Analysis of upland farmers in Wales. Journal of Rural Studies, 53, 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.05.014
Smale, M. (2005). Valuing Crop Biodiversity: On-farm Genetic Resources and Economic Change. In Valuing crop biodiversity: on-farm genetic resources and economic change (pp. 192–210). CABI Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851990835.0192
Yoshida, S., Yagi, H., & Garrod, G. (2020). Determinants of farm diversification: entrepreneurship, marketing capability, and family management. Journal of Small Business and Entrepreneurship, 32(6), 607–633. https://doi.org/10.1080/08276331.2019.1607676

Speaker: Prof. Dagmar Mithöfer (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

15 Consumer attitudes towards social commerce: Insights on female entrepreneurs selling rice and shrimp in Bangladesh

Digital advancement has made the online marketing increasingly popular worldwide. A branch of e-commerce known as “social commerce” has emerged utilizing social networking sites like Facebook, Instagram etc. to exchange products and services. In Bangladesh Facebook based social commerce (“f-commerce”) is the most popular form of e-commerce.
In f-commerce, about 0.3 million entrepreneurs in Bangladesh are currently selling various products, including agri-foods. Interestingly, 70% of these f-commerce businesses are owned by women. The popularity of f-commerce has created new opportunities for female entrepreneurs, because of its low entry barriers. Many Bangladeshi female entrepreneurs have started using digital platforms because they see it as an opportunity to empower themselves as the traditional Bangladeshi agricultural market is still dominated by men. The country’s government has also launched various initiatives to promote e-commerce entrepreneurship among women in Bangladesh, including seminars, trade fairs and conferences to support the empowerment of them.
Despite these important trends, studies on consumer attitudes for agricultural foods from f-commerce are limited. Considering the potential of f-commerce in Bangladesh, this contribution aims to explore consumer attitudes toward f-commerce, to buy rice and shrimps as example of agri-food with a focus on female entrepreneurs. The specific case of consumer perceptions of rice and shrimp sold by female entrepreneurs was selected because rice is the staple food of Bangladesh, with per capita consumption at 116 kg per year and shrimp is one of the most popular sea-food with a rapidly increasing demand in the country. Both these agri-food products are marketed by female entrepreneurs in the country’s f-commerce platform. The aim of this study is to identify a) the factors that drive consumers to purchase rice and shrimp via f-commerce, (b) the risks consumers perceive in buying rice and shrimp through f-commerce, and (c) the factors that influence consumers in deciding whether to buy rice and shrimp specifically from female f-commerce entrepreneurs.
Five online audiovisual focus group discussions were conducted with 41 consumers from Dhaka, Bangladesh in June 2022 with semi-structured guideline. The participants were selected using snowball sampling method. A qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data.
The results indicate that in light of modern and busy lifestyles consumers interest in online shopping is increasing. Convenience has emerged as the primary motive for purchasing agri-food through f-commerce, above all to avoid the time and “hassle” involved in physical shopping. In addition, consumers choose f-commerce platforms because of the specific offers such as area-specific special rice and processed shrimp. These products from f-commerce are perceived to be better of quality than those available in traditional markets and supermarkets. Notwithstanding these perceived benefits, a widespread lack of trust remains a major barrier to greater engagement in buying food through f-commerce. Lack of quality assurance and certification of the authenticity of f-commerce sellers are also significant barriers and a key reason why consumers still prefer shopping for agri-food in physical markets. The perishability of certain foods like shrimp is another reason why consumers continue to purchase these products from physical retail outlets. The results also show that consumers mainly focus on “social proof” like reviews, ratings, recommendations, activity of the business page and transparency about product information and price, while buying from f-commerce. One focus of our study was on consumer perceptions of female entrepreneurs selling agri-food in the f-commerce market. Here we found that consumers appreciate the opportunity for self-dependence that f-commerce platforms provide for female entrepreneurs in Bangladesh. But, consumers mainly prioritize product quality and service over the gender of sellers when buying food in this market, and women enjoy no advantage in this respect.
As trust came out as a major issue in f-commerce shopping, to overcome these and make f-commerce shopping more attractive, a quality assurance system would be helpful to increase trust among consumers. Such assurance could be achieved in various ways, ideally through a combination of the following measures. First, policymakers could introduce regulations governing the opening of business pages in f-commerce platforms, which at present is possible for anyone, including non-authentic sellers. This measure for enhancing trust should be accompanied by rules for cold chain systems that ensure product freshness. In addition, entrepreneurs themselves can build consumer trust by increasing the transparency of their business homepages, making sure these are frequently updated with current price and product information, reviews, and ratings. Since product quality and service is the main priority of the consumers rather than the gender of the seller, to be successful in the f-commerce market female entrepreneurs need to fulfil consumer expectations by offering reliable and high-quality products and services. Implementing the strategies suggested above, including maintaining an active business page, valuing consumer feedback, and ensuring reasonable pricing, can increase confidence not only in female entrepreneurs but in f-commerce more generally. To support female entrepreneurs, policymakers should take more active measures, such as providing training and workshop facilities for female entrepreneurs to enhance their skills and nurture their potential for success in competitive f-commerce platforms.
Keywords: consumer perception, f-commerce, purchase behavior, social commerce, Female entrepreneurs

Speaker: Mrs Shanjida Sharmin (Section of Agricultural and Food Marketing, University of Kassel, Germany)

16 Trade policies and the transmission of international to domestic prices

The importance of a reliable agricultural trade system becomes especially apparent in times of crisis. Trade on well-integrated international markets can help to buffer shocks such as those experienced in 2007/08 and more recently following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, past research has suggested that international markets for important agricultural staples are less than perfectly integrated, and that governments respond to international price surges by implementing measures such as export restrictions or changes in tariffs that insulate their domestic markets from international price surges.
Increasing insulation may appear to be a rational response to individual governments as they aim to protect domestic consumers from food price inflation. However, by reducing the buffering capacity of international markets these responses can create a collective action problem, fuelling a vicious circle of further increases in international prices, additional trade policy responses and, ultimately, increased food insecurity, especially in low-income importing countries (MARTIN and ANDERSON, 2011). Hence, it is important to understand whether insulation does indeed increase when international prices surge, and if so, what is causing this increase. The objective of this study is to generate empirical evidence on these questions.
The analysis is based on a total of 503 monthly domestic price series for wheat (n_w=56), yellow maize (n_ym=78), white maize (n_wm=152) and rice (n_r=217) obtained from the FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS FAO, 2023) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET, 2023). Depending on availability we use price series beginning as early as January 2004 and no later than January 2014, and ending in June 2023 to cover the 2007/2008 food price crisis and price surge triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As international prices $P^I$, we use US No. 2 SRW fob Gulf for wheat, US No. 2 Yellow for yellow maize, South Africa Randfontein for white maize, and Bangkok Thai 100 B for rice. We use the Baltic Dry Index as a proxy for transport costs.
Our empirical approach uses these data to estimate the basic long-run relationship:

$$P_t^D=\beta_0+\beta_1 P_t^I+\beta_2 TC_t+u_t$$ (1) where $\beta_1$ and $\beta_0$ capture ad valorem and specific tariffs, respectively. The effects of changes in transport costs TC are captured by $\beta_2$. However, if countries do respond to increasing $P^I$ with measures that insulate domestic prices, then $\beta_0$ and $\beta_1$ will not be constant over time and equation (1) will be misspecified. To account for this, we depart from earlier studies that assume a time-invariant relationship between $P^D$ and $P^I$ (e.g. MARTIN and MINOT, 2022) and estimate the following smooth-transition model proposed by SAIKKONEN and CHOI (2004): $$P_t^D=\beta_0^L+\beta_1^L P_t^I+(\beta_0^H+\beta_1^H P_t^I )*g(P_t^I )+\beta_2 TC_t+u_t$$ (2) where the superscripts L and H refer to low- and high-price regimes, respectively, and $$g(P_t^I )=(1+e^{(-\gamma (P_t^I-c)) })^{-1}$$ (3) The function g(∙) in equation (3) ranges from 0 for low values of $P_t^I$ to 1 for high values. When g(∙) = 0, the long-run relationship between $P_t^I$ and $P_t^D$ in equation (2) is $P_t^D=\beta_0^L+\beta_1^L P_t^I+\beta_2 TC_t$, which we refer to as the low-price regime. When g(∙) = 1, the long-run relationship becomes $P_t^D=(\beta_0^L+\beta_0^H)+(\beta_1^L +\beta_1^H)P_t^I+\beta_2 TC_t$, which we refer to as the high-price regime. The coefficient c marks the mid-point of the transition between the regimes where g(∙) = 0.5, and the relationship between $P_t^I$ and $P_t^D$ is an equal mixture of the low- and the high-price regimes. The coefficient $\gamma$ determines the speed with which g(∙) transitions from 0 to 1 as $p_t^I$ increases. Our results confirm that the insulation of domestic from international markets for staple grains increases when $P^I$ increases sharply as was the case in 2007/08 and more recently in 2022. The smooth transition model provides evidence that in the high-price regime $P^D$ becomes less responsive to changes in $P^I$ (i.e. the elasticity of international to domestic price transmission falls) for all of the grains that we study. The regime switch from lower to higher insulation happens on average at a world market price of roughly 285$/t for wheat, 260$/t for white maize, 275$/t for yellow maize and 555$/t for rice. There is considerable variation in these results among countries. We demonstrate that this variation is partially due to the fact that some of the domestic price series are recorded at the wholesale prices, while others are recorded farther along the chain at the retail level. We also find that the critical $P^I$ levels that trigger increased insulation of $P^D$ from $P^I$ are generally higher for exporting than for importing countries, as might be expected.
Interestingly, we do not find evidence that border measures are being adjusted to generate the increased insulation that we observe during price surges. Analysis with data on trade policy changes from the Global Trade Alert data base and annual tariff data from UNCTAD-TRAINS does not reveal any temporal correlation between the increases in insulation that we observe and changes in trade policy measures such as tariffs. This suggests that countries are using other, non-border measures such price controls or the release of public stocks to insulate domestic prices.

Keywords
Price transmission, food prices, trade policy, food security

FEWS NET (2023): Staple Food Price Data Famine Early Warning Systems Network. In: https://fews.net/staple-food-price-data.
GIEWS FAO (2023): Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Tool V4. In: https://fpma.fao.org/giews/fpmat4/#/dashboard/home.
MARTIN, W. and N. MINOT (2022): The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis. In: Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 66 (4): 753–774.
MARTIN, W. J. and K. ANDERSON (2011): Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5645.
SAIKKONEN, P. and I. CHOI (2004): Cointegrating smooth transition regressions. In: Econometric Theory 20 (02).

Speaker: Lina Kastens (Department für Agrarökonomie und Rurale Entwicklung, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)

Food Security I

17 Food Loss Analysis in Nigeria: A Systematic Literature Review

Keywords: food systems, food loss, arable crop farmers, food security

1 Introduction
Despite the plethora of publications on food loss, some knowledge gaps remain. More data on this topic are needed to understand the underlying causes of this phenomenon in both developed and developing countries (Chauhan et al., 2021). Most studies have been conducted in high-income countries, resulting in limited data from other regions. In developing countries, significant arable crop loss occurs during the production and distribution stages; however, less than 35% of the annual global studies on food loss have focused on these stages (Xue et al., 2017). In this study, food loss is referred to as any food that is originally planned or cultivated for human consumption but omitted (irrespective of the alternative purpose) between the production and distribution stages (FAO, 2011).

Food loss has contributed to the current food crisis in developing countries such as Nigeria. Current statistics indicate that this issue has significantly worsened food crises, leading to food scarcity. In terms of food security, Nigeria is ranked 25th among the 28 African countries (The Economist Impact 2022). Of the studies conducted globally on food loss between 2016 and 2022, Nigeria was classified among the top ten countries with the most case studies (Rolker et al., 2022). Paradoxically, millions of people suffer from hunger and malnutrition in a country in which food is lost. Given this context and the global interest in finding a sustainable solution to the problem, a systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted as part of a PhD project. The objective of this review is to explore the research profile for food loss based on specific crops, where food loss is most experienced, the drivers of these losses, and the consequences of food loss.

2 Method
The SLR was conducted to provide a comprehensive overview of existing knowledge on food loss in Nigeria. Eligible articles for the review included all studies on food loss until 2023, which were written in English, focused on the plant-based sector, and were conducted in Nigeria. The initial search from the Web of Science yielded 141 articles. The final articles were chosen based on their comprehensiveness within the scope of this study. Data search and extraction were performed between August and September 2023. After the final round of full-text screening, 23 articles were deemed relevant, and full-text was assessed for their quality and relevance. Finally, the content of the identified articles was read and analysed, and consequently, different themes were identified.

3 Findings
Most of the studies were from the 2000s; the first was in 2002, and the highest number of articles was found in 2021 (four) and 2022 (six studies). One study each was identified in 2002, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2020. This signifies the publication on the topic of food loss at least every two to three years since 2000. This also means that publications on food loss have grown steadily over the last decade.
The predominant crops studied included maize, rice, and cassava. These crops are classified as “priority crops and are largely consumed across the country from the northern to the southern regions.
Only five studies adopted qualitative research techniques. Additionally, of these five articles, only one adopted a qualitative research method. In contrast, most studies have adopted quantitative research methods.
The information extracted from these studies revealed that the causes of food loss include the incidence of pests and diseases, inappropriate farming practices, lack of data, lack of education and training, lack of social and physical infrastructure, and climatic conditions. Most arable crop farmers experience losses from the production to distribution stages. Although the extent of loss differs based on the types of crops grown, the production stage is the most critical stage of loss that is common to all farmers, irrespective of the crops they cultivate. The consequences of this loss are the low return on farmers' investment, the prevalence of hunger, and consequently, rural-urban migration, especially among rural youths.

4 Conclusion
Findings from the SLR show that studies on food loss in Nigeria have increased over the past decade. The losses are most severe at the production stage. Some of the causes of food loss include lack of technology and infrastructure, the incidence of pests and diseases, climate variability, use of inappropriate farm practices, and lack of education and training. Consequently, this leads to low returns on farmers' investment, the prevalence of hunger, and rural-urban migration. Although there has been an increase in publications, few qualitative studies have examined this problem from the farmers’ perspective. Notably, this is because farmers are the most important actors in food loss reduction efforts, as they make different farming decisions that could either increase or reduce loss. Furthermore, no study has attempted to use existing theories to investigate the reasons for persistent food loss. Therefore, the next phase of the study adopted qualitative research techniques and the concept of valuation to explore the motivations, perceptions, and practices that influence actors' contributions to food loss.

References
Chauhan, C., Dhir, A., Akram, M. U., & Salo, J. (2021a). Food loss and waste in food supply chains. A systematic literature review and framework development approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126438.

FAO. (2011). Global Food Losses and Food Waste-Extent, Causes and Prevention Bio-LCA: Biodiversity indicators for life cycle assessments in forestry and agriculture View project FAFSynt-Future.

GRFC. (2022). Global Report on Food Crises. FSIN Food Security Information Network.

Rolker, H., Eisler, M., Cardenas, L., Deeney, M., & Takahashi, T. (2022). Food waste interventions in low-and-middle-income countries: A systematic literature review. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 186, 106534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106534.

The Economist Impact. (2022). The Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Country report: Nigeria.

Xue, L., Liu, G., Parfitt, J., Liu, X., van Herpen, E., Stenmarck, Å., O’Connor, C., Östergren, K., & Cheng, S. (2017). Missing Food, Missing Data? A Critical Review of Global Food Losses and Food Waste Data. Environmental Science and Technology, 51(12), 6618–6633. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b00401

Speaker: Ifeoluwa Abulude (International PhD Program for Agricultural Economics, Bioeconomy, and Sustainable Food Systems (IPPAE). Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research. Justus-Liebig University, Giessen. Germany)

18 Combining crop diversity and market access to promote dietary diversity and food security: Insights from Smallholder Productivity Promotion Programme in Zambia

Combining crop diversity and market access to promote dietary diversity and food security: Insights from Smallholder Productivity Promotion Programme in Zambia

Key words: Crop diversity, Market Access, Diets, Food Security, Agricultural Policies, Smallholder farm households

Introduction

Despite significant progress in food availability, over 828 million people still suffer from hunger each night, with smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa particularly affected by factors such as conflicts, economic shocks, and climate extremes (FAO et al., 2023). Recent studies have focused on two main strategies to combat this issue: increasing on-farm crop diversity and improving market access (Jones, 2017; Sibhatu et al., 2015; Sibhatu and Qaim, 2018). While some studies advocate for prioritizing on-farm diversity for its ecological benefits and smallholders consume a significant portion of the food they produce (Jones, 2017), others argue that addressing market barriers may be more effective in providing diverse and nutritious foods (Sibhatu and Qaim, 2018). However, these two approaches are often viewed as contradictory, overlooking potential synergies between them. Combining on-farm diversity with enhanced market participation could lead to better household diets and food security, thus challenging the notion of inherent antagonism. This raises the following question: Can a combined intervention of both strategies offer viable solutions to hunger and malnutrition in smallholder farm households?

Objectives

This study aims to investigate the potential synergistic effects of combined interventions in crop diversity and market participation on enhancing the dietary diversity and food security of smallholder farm households. Building upon Sibhatu et al.'s (2022) assertion of the positive impact of boosting both agricultural production and market access, our research extends this analysis by examining the interplay between on-farm crop diversity and market access.

Methods

This study uses IFAD’s Smallholder Productivity Promotion Programme (S3P), implemented in Zambia between 2015 and 2019, as an empirical context. Utilizing secondary data and geospatial information collected pre-project, we employ a two-stage propensity score matching (PSM) procedure to randomly select treated and control households from their respective populations. To assess the impact of S3P on crop diversity (measured by crop species count and Gini index), market access (measured by crop market access (dummy), share of sales value in the total value of production (0-1), revenue from crop sales (log, USD), if cassava is sold as chips (1=yes) and participation in farmer organizations (1=Yes)), household diversity (household dietary diversity score of 12 food groups - HDDS), and food security (measured by months of adequate household food provision, MAHFP), we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). We estimate the program's impact using Inverse Probability Weighting and Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) to address endogeneity concerns.

Findings

Descriptive Results

Analysis of dietary outcome variables reveals that beneficiary households demonstrated significantly higher scores across all indicators than non-beneficiaries. Beneficiaries reported higher food consumption diversity, with an average HDDS of 8.3, indicating access to over eight food groups over a seven-day period. Additionally, beneficiary households experienced a longer period of adequate food provision annually than non-beneficiaries, with a surplus of about two and a half months.
Market access variables also exhibited significant differences between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, with beneficiaries demonstrating higher values across all indicators. This suggests that S3P participation not only enhances own production but also improves economic access to food through increased engagement in agricultural markets and farmer organizations.

Promoting Crop Diversity and Market Participation

Regression estimates indicate significant positive effects of S3P on crop production diversity and market participation among beneficiary households. In particular, beneficiary households exhibited a 13% increase in total crop production value compared to non-beneficiary households. Additionally, beneficiaries showed higher yields and increased crop diversification, implying enhanced availability of diverse foods from their own production.
Similarly, S3P beneficiaries experienced improvements in market access, with a 10-percentage point increase in the probability of selling crops and a 39% increase in revenue from agricultural sales compared to non-beneficiaries. These findings highlight the programme’s success in facilitating both production and marketing activities, ultimately contributing to enhanced dietary diversity and food security.

Role of Crop Diversity and Market Access

Exploratory analysis reveals significant positive associations between crop diversity and market access indicators, dietary diversity, and food security. Increased crop species count and crop harvest are correlated with higher HDDS and MAHFP, emphasizing the importance of diversified production for improved nutrition outcomes.
Similarly, market access indicators such as the share of agricultural sales are positively associated with HDDS and MAHFP, underscoring the significance of market engagement in enhancing household food and nutritional security.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that both production diversity and market access pathways play complementary roles in improving food and nutrition security among smallholder households, advocating their joint promotion of food insecurity and malnutrition alleviation efforts. Contrary to viewing production diversity and market participation as opposing pathways to improving dietary diversity and food security, our findings advocate for their combined implementation. Particularly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries where market failures inhibit specialization, promoting crop diversification alongside market incentives emerges as a crucial strategy for alleviating malnutrition and food insecurity.

References

• FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, 2023. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023. FAO, Rome, Italy.
• Jones, A.D., 2017. Critical review of the emerging research evidence on agricultural biodiversity, diet diversity, and nutritional status in low- and middle-income countries. Nutr Rev 75, 769–782. https://doi.org/10.1093/nutrit/nux040.
• Sibhatu, K.T., Arslan, A., Zucchini, E., 2022. The effect of agricultural programs on dietary diversity and food security: Insights from the smallholder productivity promotion program in Zambia. Food Policy 113, 102268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102268.
• Sibhatu, K.T., Krishna, V.V., Qaim, M., 2015. Production diversity and dietary diversity in smallholder farm households. PNAS 112, 10657–10662. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510982112.
• Sibhatu, K.T., Qaim, M., 2018. Review: Meta-analysis of the association between production diversity, diets, and nutrition in smallholder farm households. Food Policy 77, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.04.013.

Speaker: Kibrom Tadesse Sibhatu (Independent Consultant, Research and Impact Assessment Division, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Goettingen, Germany)

19 Reducing the 'True Cost' of Food-Based Safety Nets: Evidence from India's National Food Program

Introduction

Public procurement and distribution of food play an important role in determining what is produced and consumed the world over. This is particularly true for countries where governments play a major role in the procurement of certain food items. A case in point is India where, in 2021-22, the government procured 44 percent of rice and 41 percent of wheat production. A large part of this food grain was distributed to over 60 percent of India’s population through various food-based safety net programs. This scale of public procurement of food grain, at guaranteed prices announced before the farming season, plays a pivotal role in determining what farmers choose to grow.

In this study, we focus on the food-related impacts of food-based safety nets on the economy and environment. We do this to highlight the ‘hidden’ costs associated with the food system. The price we pay for food does not reflect its ‘true’ cost as it fails to account for negative externalities resulting from the production and consumption of food, such as scarce water use and greenhouse (GHG) gas emissions. We estimate the true cost of distributing rice, wheat, and millets through India’s food program and propose ways to reduce the true cost of this program.

Objective

Our study aims to identify, quantify, and monetize hidden costs (or negative externalities) associated with public procurement and distribution of food through food-based safety nets. We specifically examine food-based safety nets as governments have direct control over what is procured and distributed through these programs.

We focus on the Public Distribution System (PDS), India’s highly subsidized food program that provides five kilograms of food grain (a combination of rice and wheat) to over 800 million individuals every month. While the PDS plays a critical role in ensuring food security, there is scope for making it more sustainable by replacing part of the current PDS food basket with millets.

Millets have two major benefits over rice and wheat: first, they are more nutritious due to their higher content of iron, dietary fiber, and calcium (food system – nutrition interaction); and second, they are often described as ‘climate-smart’ crops because of their low requirement of inputs such as water and fertilizer (food system – environment interaction).

The major millets grown in India are pearl millet (Barja), sorghum (Jowar), and finger millet (Ragi). Traditionally, they were an important part of the Indian diet. However, over the past five decades, they have been replaced by rice and wheat due to the advent of the Green Revolution in India in the 1960s. Including millets in the PDS can also help improve the livelihoods of millet farmers in western and central India who have not benefited from the public procurement system as it predominantly focuses on rice and wheat farmers in northwest and eastern India.

Method

We use True Cost Accounting (TCA) to estimate the food-related impacts associated with the PDS. Most TCA frameworks focus on four areas: economy, environment, health, and social impacts. In our study, we focus on economy- and environment-related impacts. We identify, quantify, and monetize four metrics associated with these focus areas: power and fertilizer subsidies for the former, and scarce water use and GHG emissions for the latter.

A major challenge in estimating the true cost for our study was attributing costs to each crop and state. We estimate the power and fertilizer subsidies using data from government sources. For scarce water use and GHG emissions, we use estimates from existing studies.

Findings

We estimate that the true cost of the PDS is €34 billion – this is more than twice the financial cost of the PDS. A large part of the ‘hidden’ costs associated with the PDS are due to the cost of scarce water use. We further divide these costs by state and find that two states incur most of the costs associated with all four of our metrics. Finally, we estimate crop-wise true costs and find that rice and wheat are 2 and 1.6 times more costly than millets.

We use our crop-wise true cost estimates to calculate the savings from replacing 1 kg of rice with 1 kg of millets, in the monthly PDS allocation of 5 kg, for a quarter of PDS beneficiaries (~200 million). Doing so reduces the financial cost of the PDS by €215.2 million (or 1.3 percent of the financial cost of the PDS) and results in true cost savings of €1.1 billion (or 3.3 percent of the true cost of the PDS).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that replacing rice (or wheat) with millets can help reduce the water and carbon footprint of the PDS, while also resulting in lower fertilizer and power use. However, these savings rely on the assumption that PDS beneficiaries will replace 1 kg of rice (or wheat) from their diets.

These findings need to be viewed in the context of the political economy around public procurement in India. Intensive rice and wheat production in northwest India have been identified as major sources of GHG emissions and scarce water use, respectively. However, given the high yields, guaranteed prices, and highly subsidized inputs, it is unlikely that farmers will diversify to other crops. Replacing part of the PDS allocation with millets can help promote the consumption of millet and further decentralize the procurement of food grain by shifting it away from the northwestern states to the millet-growing western and central parts of India.

Speaker: Raghav Puri (Cornell University)

Technology Adoption

20 How to achieve greener palm oil?

The relationship of agriculture to climate change is bi-directional. On the one hand, climate change is a major challenge for agriculture and food systems, as it causes crop failures due to extreme weather events and increased atmospheric temperatures. On the other hand, current agricultural production itself contributes significantly to climate change. Around 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the food and agricultural sector. This results in the need to reduce emissions in our food system. At the same time, the challenge is to make agriculture more resilient to the effects of climate change. Sustainable agricultural practices (SAP) play a key role here and our study focuses on these. SAP have the potential to improve biodiversity and soil quality with regard to conventional practices – while maintaining yields (Manda et al., 2016).
Several studies analyze the socioeconomic and agronomic determinants of the adoption of sustainable practices among smallholder farmers (Oyetunde-Usman et al., 2021). Still, there is only little information on the same adoption dynamics among smallholder farmers who are highly specialized in one single cash crop. Likewise, the research on determinants of the adoption of SAP in oil palm farming is relatively recent. Existing studies rather focus on the determinants of the adoption of RSPO or ISPO certifications (e.g., Rodthong et al., 2020). Therefore, we investigate whether crop history in oil palm production affects today’s adoption of SAP.
In Costa Rica, the United Fruit Company (UFC) introduced large-scale monocultural systems of banana plantations during the early 20th century. After the company left in the mid-1980s, many of the former banana plantations were converted into oil palm. Today, oil palm is the second largest agricultural sector in terms of plantation area, behind coffee, and ranks third after bananas and pineapples regarding production volume. In the Costa Rican oil palm sector, farmer cooperatives which had already emerged at the time of the UFC still play an important role today.
First, we explore the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices through (1) the use of organic instead of conventional fertilizers, (2) manual weeding instead of herbicide use and (3) intercropping and biodiversity enrichment. Subsequently, we analyze the relationship between crop history on today’s adoption of SAP. To test this relationship, we employ a mediation analysis and use cooperative membership as a mediator between crop history and today’s adoption of SAP.
We add to the existing literature on socioeconomic and institutional determinants of the adoption of sustainable practices among small- and medium-scale farmers in tropical agriculture. We hypothesize (i) that the adoption of SAP in Costa Rica is mostly influenced by institutional factors such as contracts or cooperative memberships and less by socioeconomic factors and (ii) that these institutional factors can be linked back to the farmers’ crop history.
To address the aforementioned research question, we conducted 515 household interviews with Costa Rican small-scale oil palm farmers in the Puntarenas province – the main oil palm-producing region of the country – between December 2022 and January 2023. The collected dataset is representative of the Costa Rican oil palm sector and contains rich information on household livelihoods, farming inputs and outputs, environmental perception through farmers and land-use history on plot level. We employ probit regressions on the SAP adoption variables. For a more detailed analysis, we intend to use early satellite images from the 1980s to examine which subregion in our study area was heavily influenced by agricultural practices linked to the former banana company.
We find that younger age, high spending on machinery and long distance to markets are important determinants of organic fertilizer adoption among farmers. Meanwhile, household income is not associated with a higher likelihood of adopting organic fertilizer, unlike in many similar studies. The farms that grew bananas before palm oil are less likely to use organic fertilizers today. Extension services have a significant influence on the adoption of manual weeding but not on organic fertilizers. Further, findings suggest that intercropping is mostly adopted by relatively larger and wealthier farms. We hypothesize that one mechanism between crop history and adoption of SAP is the intensive usage of agrochemicals over decades which makes farmers more trained and conscious about their use in today’s farming.
Given that oil palm production systems are relatively similar around the globe, our findings are also of relevance for policymakers in oil palm producing countries other than Costa Rica. They may also be relevant for other perennial crop productions and agroforestry schemes because adoption dynamics of SAPs such as organic fertilizers are similar across different crops and regions (Darras et al., 2019). The findings of this study help policymakers to better understand heterogeneity across smallholder farmers – and the long-term consequences of the organizational structure of a multinational company. The findings can also help to improve policy on training for SAP adoption, e.g., through group workshops with farmers which are common practice in Costa Rica.

References
Darras, K. F. A., Corre, M. D., Formaglio, G., Tjoa, A., Potapov, A., Brambach, F., Sibhatu, K. T., Grass, I., Rubiano, A. A., Buchori, D., Drescher, J., Fardiansah, R., Hölscher, D., Irawan, B., Kneib, T., Krashevska, V., Krause, A., Kreft, H., Li, K., … Veldkamp, E. (2019). Reducing Fertilizer and Avoiding Herbicides in Oil Palm Plantations—Ecological and Economic Valuations. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2(November). https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00065
Manda, J., Alene, A. D., Gardebroek, C., Kassie, M., & Tembo, G. (2016). Adoption and Impacts of Sustainable Agricultural Practices on Maize Yields and Incomes: Evidence from Rural Zambia. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67(1), 130–153. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12127
Oyetunde-Usman, Z., Olagunju, K. O., & Ogunpaimo, O. R. (2021). Determinants of adoption of multiple sustainable agricultural practices among smallholder farmers in Nigeria. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 9(2), 241–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2020.10.007
Rodthong, W., Kuwornu, J. K. M., Datta, A., Anal, A. K., & Tsusaka, T. W. (2020). Factors Influencing the Intensity of Adoption of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Practices by Smallholder Farmers in Thailand. Environmental Management, 66(3), 377–394. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01323-3

Speaker: Jakob Vincent Latzko (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development - Uni Göttingen)

21 Large scale pilot of low-cost soil tests to promote soil health management practices among smallholder farmers in Indonesia

1. Introduction

Since the 1960s, the Indonesian rice farmers have widely adopted “Green Revolution” type techniques to achieve rapid increases in productivity. However, the extensive use of such techniques, specifically the overapplication of chemical fertilizers, has also induced tremendous environmental costs like degraded water quality, soil quality and biodiversity loss (Hazell, 2009; IAASTD, 2009; IFAD, 2013). Several reports (e.g. BAPPENAS, 2014) suggest that overapplication of nitrogen-rich fertilizers has caused widespread deterioration of agricultural land quality. Empirical evidence suggests that Indonesian smallholder farmers apply twice as much urea per hectare as large-scale farmers, and much more than what is officially recommended by the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (Osorio et al., 2011).

Providing farmers with information about soil nutrient principles, balanced fertilizer application recommendations, along with the provision of low-cost soil tests could in principle increase farmers’ ability to manage their soils in a sustainable way. However, the provision of agricultural information has also become increasingly difficult in recent years. The number of agricultural extension workers, who once played an important role in Indonesian agricultural development (Rusliyadi et al., 2018; Utami et al., 2019; Anwarudin and Dayat, 2019), were drastically reduced during the Covid-19 pandemic (Dharmawan et al., 2021).

Our study uses a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to investigate the impact of soil health management training and manual rapid soil tests on the adoption of soil health management practices. Our study has the following objectives:

i. To evaluate the impact of hands-on-training on smallholder farmers’ fertilizer application behaviour and their knowledge about soil health management.

ii. To determine whether smallholder farmers incorporate soil tests in their health management practices, and if doing so helps them become more sustainable.

iii. To evaluate the costs of soil tests compared to their benefits (both economic and ecological).

2. Methodology

As our assessment is based on a RCT, we estimate treatment effects by a simple mean comparison at end-line. Further, to redress any potential bias stemming from minor structural differences across the two treatment groups and the control group and to increase the precision of our estimates, we condition on a set of controls. Moreover, we estimate ANCOVA models, i.e. we also condition on the baseline values of our outcomes to increase the statistical power of our analysis (McKenzie, 2012). The notation is as follows,

y_i = b₀ + b₁t₁ + b₂y_io + b₃z_i + e_i

The outcome of interest y_i is measured under three broad categories – i). adoption behaviour ii), yields and profits and iii). knowledge and perceptions. t₁ is the treatment, b₁ measures the causal effect of the treatment, y_io is the baseline value of the outcome, b₂ is the corresponding coefficient, zi are controls, b₃ for the corresponding coefficients, and e_i is the error term.

3. Study Design and Data

3.1. Study Design

The intervention was implemented as a RCT in 69 villages across three districts in the Province of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Information and training sessions on soil management practices were provided in a farmer group setting and villages were randomized into three groups: (1) Control group, (2) T1: 1-day training and (3) T2: 2-day training. In T2 we additionally offered soil testing allowing to investigate whether soil testing can augment the effect of soil health management training.

3.2. Data

The baseline survey was conducted in August and September 2022 and the endline survey between May and June 2023. In each wave, twelve enumerators interviewed 1,104 respondents. Each interview lasted between 40 – 60 minutes. Later, qualitative data was also collected in the form of focus group discussions (FGDs) and qualitative interviews to better understand how farmers asses soil quality and also to capture their perception of soil quality.

4. Results

4.1. Quantitative Results

Our findings suggest that the two-day training has a significant effect on reducing nitrogen application by almost 27 kg/ha, whereas the treatment does not seem to have any impact on phosphorus and kalium application. The ANCOVA results also suggest similar outcomes. Further, we observe that the two-day training had positive and significant effects on the adoption of sustainable farming practices like using Leaf Colour Chart (LCC) and Lime. On the other hand, we see a very low uptake of rapid-soil tests. Only six farmers out of 368 farmers tested their soil again. We also observe that the two-day training had a positive and significant effect on yield productivity, increasing harvest by about 1.6 – 1.8 quintal/ha. On the other hand, no significant impact of training was observed on knowledge levels of farmers.

4.2. Qualitative Results

The qualitative data collected through FGDs and semi-structured interviews reconfirms the results observed through quantitative data. Farmers appreciate that the trainings exposed them to new farming tools and techniques like LCC, MOL preparation, and lime application. They also report to have more ease in identifying the characteristics of a healthy soil. On the other hand, the most common reasons for low uptake of rapid-soil tests include - forgotten how to use the soil test kits, lack of confidence to use such kits without expert supervision, hesitancy in collecting soil test kit from other famer’s house.

5. Conclusion and Policy Implications

Our study demonstrates the potential of training to enhance the adoption of soil health management practices in a developing country context. We observe that cost effective methods like LCC usage and lime application are simple yet powerful practices that local decision makers could consider while conducting sustainable farming trainings. Furthermore, we observe that a two-day training on soil health management was indeed successful in reducing nitrogen-fertilizer application and consequently also increased yields. However, farmers seem to require more encouragement in using complex tools like soil tests. Overall, our study provides evidence bases for national and international organizations to design large scale programs addressing soil health management issues in the broader context of sustainable farming.

JEL codes: O12, O13, Q12, Q15, Q16
Key words: Technology adoption, soil tests, sustainability, soil health,

Speaker: Udit Sawhney (University of Passau)

22 How do information channels and sources relate to smallholders’ distinct forestry practices?

KEYWORDS
Agroforestry; Multivariate Sample Selection Model; Sahel; Tree Usage

INTRODUCTION
In the Sahel region, global warming drives the degradation of agricultural land. The Sahara Desert is expected to extend further south, turning formerly Sudanese climate zones gradually more Sahelian. This trend directly threatens the agricultural production of the region and thus food security and livelihood of the majority of the region’s population (Yobom 2020). International and local efforts to counteract land degradation have been intensified in the past decades (Cotillon et al. 2021). At the core land restoration initiatives is the promotion of practices such as agroforestry, i.e. the interaction of trees and agriculture (World Agroforestry 2024). The underlying aim of agroforestry promotion in the Sahel is to increase tree quantity. -diversity and the uptake of specific tree species (Mbow et al. 2021; UNCCD 2024). Past agroforestry adoption studies that rely on narrow indicators for adoption systematically exclude certain interactions of farmers with trees on and off their farmland (Amare and Darr 2020). We argue that especially in the Sahelian context informal farm-tree interactions that are e.g. culturally rooted (Cotillon et al. 2021), fall through the grids of research and thus interventions and policies. We therefore hypothesize that established agroforestry adoption determinants differ, when farm-tree interactions are considered in more detail. In past studies, information and knowledge have been found to be main drivers for agroforestry adoption (Amare and Darr 2020; Arslan et al. 2022). We therefore focus on smallholder’s information seeking behaviour regarding agricultural information and expect specific information sources and -channels to affect different forestry practices as well as related tree species, -quantity, and -diversity differently.

OBJECTIVE
We aim to understand how information sources and -channels determine smallholders’ interactions with trees. We therefore want to (1) understand, which information sources and -channels jointly and distinctly determine smallholders (a) actively planting trees, (b) actively practicing farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR), (c) actively cutting down trees, (d) having trees on their farmland and actively utilizing them, as well as (e) actively utilizing trees that grow off their farmland. Further we want to (2) investigate the correlation between those distinct forestry practices. We additionally aim to (3) understand different types of tree usage and (4) explore, if specific foresting practices relate to specific tree species, tree quantity and tree diversity and (5) what drives those outcomes within respective forestry practice.

METHODS
We collected household data of 606 smallholder farmers in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin. For our analysis, we employ a multivariate sample selection model based on Yen (2005) to analyze the determinants and correlation of smallholders practicing different forestry practices. The model further allows us to analyze tree quantity and tree diversity conditional on practicing respective forestry practices.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Our results indicate that trees are growing on 92% of the respondents' farms or homesteads. All smallholders that have trees on their farmland or homestead indicate to utilize those trees in various ways. Further 38% indicate to utilize trees that grow off their farmland and about 5% commercialize tree products. 26% actively planted trees and 21% actively practiced FMNR on their land in the past three years, while 15% have cut down trees on their land during this time. 85% of the smallholders that utilized trees, used them to produce food, 51% for firewood or carbon, 50% for medical purposes and 37% for fodder for livestock. The medicinal use of trees is mainly as fever remedy, antibiotics and to treat diarrhea. The multivariate probit regression in the first stage of the sample selection model shows that all different types of forestry practices correlate positively, indicating the high probability to jointly practice multiple forestry types. The multivariate probit regression further shows that smallholders that seek information via diverse channels and from diverse sources are more likely to engage in any forestry practice. We found phone calls to be the most important information channel for increased forestry activity, followed by radio and social media platforms. Interestingly, smallholders seeking information from their family members are less likely to indicate practicing FMNR, while they are more likely to engage in the other forestry practices. The most important sources of information to positively affect forestry activities are neighboring farmers and friends as well as farmers association. We surprisingly find a negative relation of NGOs and governmental organizations to all forestry types.

CONCLUSION
Our preliminary results highlight the need for future research and impact evaluation in the context of agroforestry to distinguish in more detail between different forestry practices. Future agroforestry policy and extension should target the versatile interactions of smallholder farmers and trees in the Sahel more specifically to achieve increases in tree quantity and -diversity as well as the uptake of specific tree species. Further phone calls, radio and social media platforms such as Whatsapp, YouTube and Tiktok should be integrated in communication strategies targeting specific forestry practices.

REFERENCES
Amare, Dagninet; Darr, Dietrich (2020): Agroforestry adoption as a systems concept: A review. In Forest Policy and Economics 120, p. 102299. DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102299.
Arslan, Aslihan; Floress, Kristin; Lamanna, Christine; Lipper, Leslie; Rosenstock, Todd S. (2022): A meta-analysis of the adoption of agricultural technology in Sub-Saharan Africa. In PLOS Sustain Transform 1 (7), e0000018. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pstr.0000018.
Cotillon, Suzanne; Tappan, Gray; Reij, Chris (2021): Land Use Change And Climate- Smart Agriculture In The Sahel. In Leonardo A. Villalón (Ed.): The Oxford Handbook of the African Sahel: Oxford University Press.
Mbow, Cheikh; Halle, Mark; El Fadel, Rabih; Thiaw, Ibrahim (2021): Land resources opportunities for a growing prosperity in the Sahel. In Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 48, pp. 85–92. DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2020.11.005.
World Agroforestry (2024): What is Agroforestry. Available online at https://www.worldagroforestry.org/about/agroforestry.
Yen, Steven T. (2005): A Multivariate Sample-Selection Model. Estimating Cigarette and Alcohol Demands with Zero Observations. In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87 (2), pp. 453–466. Available online at http://www.jstor.org/stable/3697857
Yobom, Oudah (2020): Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel. In Climatic Change 159 (3), pp. 365–384. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02606-3

Speaker: Luisa Müting (Uni Göttingen)

23 Impact and drivers of informal water markets in irrigation regions in India

Significant water supply-demand gaps are projected in many regions of India under current climate change and population growth scenarios. Agriculture in India accounts for around 90% of freshwater withdrawals and 65% of the irrigation water is sourced from groundwater (Devineni et al., 2022; World Bank, 2022). Farmers in many regions receive subsidies for water intensive cropping systems and subsidised electricity for groundwater pumps leading to widespread groundwater over-exploitation (Fishman, 2018). Many rural populations in India are highly dependent upon agricultural development and access to water to support food security and livelihoods (Blakeslee et al., 2020). The government in India is considering and implementing different measures to better manage water, e.g. water metering, water pricing, incentives to reduce water abstractions, decreasing energy subsidies, or community-based water management. Also, informal water markets (or pump rental markets) are widespread in India; however, their impacts are largely unknown and under-researched due to a paucity in related data. Their development is attributed to an unequal access to irrigation resources (water and energy) dominated by larger/wealthier water sellers that own (deeper) wells, modern pumps (e.g. heavy-duty, submersible pumps) and have surplus supply of water and energy. Small/marginal farmers often lack necessary irrigation infrastructure and access to deeper wells. As such, less-endowed farming communities can face increased irrigation water costs because of lower groundwater levels (Chaudhuri et al., 2021). On the one hand, informal water trading may increase equity in access giving farmers that do not own wells or pumps access to water (Mukherji, 2007). There may also be positive effects for water conservation and water use efficiency in case farmers face higher costs for irrigation water (Manjunatha et al., 2011). On the other hand, unmonitored informal water markets can cause water resources over-exploitation and also give wealthier water sellers a significant amount of power over less-endowed farmers (Dubash, 2000).
We investigate the impacts and drivers of farmers’ irrigation water purchases using a large representative national survey for India over two years. We are particularly interested whether there is an association between increased irrigation water purchases and characteristics of local (water) governance, (water) conflicts and memberships as well as the diversity of access to water sources. It is also expected to find a difference for related expenditures when purchasing from private as compared to government tubewell owners. We use a subset of the farm level data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) covering all irrigating farms (n=19,330). In addition, we collected precipitation (mm/day), temperature and groundwater storage (percentile) data from NASA Earthdata and merged the district level average statistics with the survey data. We estimated several probit models for the survey years separately and combined (pooled cross-section), and separately for groundwater and surface water. As an extension we estimated the models by State, focussing on those states with large-scale irrigation areas and a sufficient number of irrigation farms, such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Furthermore, fixed-effects panel regression models were estimated to examine determinants of farmers’ irrigation water expenditure per year and per acre (INR/acre). A Heckman sample selection model was further tested. Modelling results for both models (groundwater and surface water) show that, after accounting for several control variables, irrigation water purchases were more likely where: a) Groundwater levels were already low; b) Farmers have access to both water sources; and c) Farmers have no access to public piped drinking water supply. Particularly in groundwater irrigation areas, purchases were also more likely where: a) Conflicts are prevalent within the village; b) Families solve (water supply) conflicts individually; c) Farmers are not members in a cooperative; and d) Farmers have low confidence in State or village government. Furthermore, modelling results for irrigation water expenditure showed a strong association between increased expenditure INR/acre when purchasing mainly from private tubewell owners as compared to government tubewell owners.
There is a need for future research to examine this dataset at local spatial scales and per different irrigation types, because of highly varied irrigation systems in India. This is reflected in the different results for the state-specific models. Results underpin, on the one hand, the severity of the state of India’s groundwater resources and, on the other hand, issues regarding community cohesion and confidence levels regarding local governments. Local networks may need to be reinforced, such as water users associations, accompanied by participatory approaches to provide for better water sharing systems. Studies have shown that better water governance systems improve the cooperation among stakeholders and the resilience in communities. Overall, there is a need for better regulation and monitoring in water management, e.g. with regards to informal water markets and related subsidies, to provide for the long-term sustainability of irrigation communities. At the same time, different water-related policies need to take into account the effects of multiple implemented measures as well as the existence of informal water markets.
Key words: irrigated agriculture, groundwater, informal water markets, India
References
Blakeslee D, Fishman R and Srinivasan V (2020) Way Down in the Hole: Adaptation to Long-Term Water Loss in Rural India. American Economic Review 110(1): 200–224.
Chaudhuri S, Parakh D, Roy M, et al. (2021) Groundwater-sourced irrigation and agro-power subsidies: Boon or bane for small/marginal farmers in India? Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15: 100690.
Devineni N, Perveen S and Lall U (2022) Solving groundwater depletion in India while achieving food security. Nature Communications 13(1): 3374.
Dubash NK (2000) Ecologically and Socially Embedded Exchange: 'Gujarat Model' of Water Markets. Economic and Political Weekly 35(16): 1376–1385.
Fishman R (2018) Groundwater depletion limits the scope for adaptation to increased rainfall variability in India. Climatic Change 147(1): 195–209.
Manjunatha AV, Speelman S, Chandrakanth MG, et al. (2011) Impact of groundwater markets in India on water use efficiency: A data envelopment analysis approach. Journal of Environmental Management 92(11): 2924–2929.
Mukherji A (2007) Implications of Alternative Institutional Arrangements in Groundwater Sharing: Evidence from West Bengal. Economic and Political Weekly 42(26): 2543–2564.
World Bank (2022) World Water Day 2022: How India is addressing its water needs (accessed 30.01.23).

Speaker: Juliane Haensch (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Finance and Insurance

24 Digital innovations to increase impacts of agricultural insurance: Evidence from a randomized trial in Kenya

Keywords: risk, agriculture, technology adoption, digital technologies, Kenya

Introduction
Farmers in developing countries face a host of climate-related risks that make their incomes volatile, undermine their food security, and hamper investments in agriculture (Dercon, 2005). Agricultural insurance has the potential to transfer some of these risks away from smallholder farmers, thereby protecting households’ incomes and assets from weather shocks, improving access to credit, and increasing investments in agriculture (Karlan et al. 2014; Jensen et al. 2017; Hill et al. 2019; Janzen and Carter, 2019). Yet, insurance supply and demand remain limited across the global south. Classic incentive problems stemming from asymmetric information, such as moral hazard and adverse selection, along with high monitoring and transaction costs, restrict the supply of indemnity-based insurance (Alderman and Haque, 2007; Sanrtos and Barrett, 2011). Index-based insurance, introduced to lower transaction costs and solve problems associated with asymmetric information, grapple with low demand due to high basis risk (discrepancies between actual losses and insurance payouts determined by the index), product complexity combined with low financial literacy, liquidity constraints, and lack of trust (Clarke et al. 2016; Hill et al. 2016; Gine et al. 2008; Casaburi and Willis, 2018).

Objective
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of a digital innovation on crop insurance take-up and agricultural investments among smallholder farmers in Kenya. We analyze a picture-based insurance solution, designed to lower basis risk by indemnifying insurance claims based on visible damage detected from smartphone images of an insured crop (Ceballos et al., 2019). Reducing basis risk, combined with a more participatory product that is easier to explain than index-based insurance, could enhance farmer trust, product understanding, demand, and impacts. By providing insurance providers with a stream of pre- and post-damage pictures of insured crops taken from planting to harvest, the product also reduces monitoring costs, addressing potential concerns around classic incentive problems stemming from asymmetric information (Ceballos et al, 2021). This could translate into a more commerically viable insurance solution with increased demand whilst keeping monitoring costs low.

Methods
To evaluate the impacts of this innovation, we use a cluster randomized trial in which 191 villages from seven counties in western and eastern Kenya were randomized into one of three treatment arms: a control group, in which no free insurance trials were provided; an index-based insurance treatment, in which up to 20 farmers per village were provided with free trials of rainfall insurance; and a treatment arm in which up to 20 farmers received free trials of picture-based insurance. Across these three treatment arms, 3200 farmers were surveyed at baseline, midline and endline to measure the impacts of the two types of insurance products on insurance demand, perceptions, and agricultural investments. We cross-randomized whether farmers were also offered seeds of improved (drought-tolerant) maize and sorghum varieties. A few months prior to endline, farmers in the two insurance-related treatment arms were offered an opportunity to purchase the insurance product of which they had previously received an insurance trial (rainfall index-based and picture-based insurance, respectively). Insurance was offered at that time at actuarially fair or, for a randomly selected subset of farmers, subsidized premiums.

Findings
We find that providing picture-based crop insurance significantly increases demand relative to weather index-based insurance, but particularly among farmers who were randomly selected to receive an insurance premium subsidy. These effects are mediated by significantly improved perceptions of insurance in terms of trust, perceived quality, and satisfaction with provided coverage among farmers offered picture-based insurance, compared to those who were offered rainfall insurance. The increased demand for picture-based insurance is concentrated among women smallholder farmers. Whereas in the rainfall index insurance treatment, less than 20 percent of women purchased insurance, this increases to 31 percent in the picture-based insurance treatment. We observe no significant effects of offering picture-based insurance on take-up among men smallholder farmers. As a result, the picture-based product increases women’s insurance uptake beyond take-up rates observed among men.

Despite increased take-up, intent-to-treat estimates reveal no significant impacts on agricultural investments, including expenditures on seeds, fertilizer, other inputs, and hired labor, and on yields. Local average treatment effects, estimated by instrumenting insurance coverage using the randomly assigned treatment, show significant positive effects of insurance coverage on amounts spent on seed, fertilizer and hired labor. However, this crowding-in of inputs occurs only in the cross-randomized treatment where farmers were not offered drought-tolerant maize and sorghum varieties. This suggests that farmers perceive improved varieties, a technology to manage moderate risks, to be a substitute for crop insurance, which is in theory designed to manage more extreme risks. An important research question therefore remains how to design insurance products in ways that farmers perceive them to be complementary, rather than substitutes, for other risk management instruments they might use.

Conclusion
Our findings imply that an easy-to-understand insurance solution with low basis risk can increase demand to levels that are potentially more commercially viable than index-based insurance, but insurance programs would still benefit from insurance subsidies to reach larger numbers of farmers. Although the use of smartphone technology could have potentially reduced interest among women farmers, who have less access to smartphones, we find that this did not deter them from taking up insurance, and that in fact, the use of smartphone pictures for claims settlement increases demand among women more than among men. Whilst the innovation increases demand for insurance, in this context, it was not sufficient to increase smallholder farmers’ investments in agriculture, potentially because farmers perceive insurance to be a substitute for other risk management technologies in which they can invest. This will limit the potential impacts of such financial instruments on agricultural production, incomes, food security, and other nutrition-related outcomes.

Speaker: Berber Kramer (International Food Policy Research Institute)

25 Picture-based crop insurance: A randomized control trial evaluating the impacts of using smartphone pictures for claims verification in India

Exposure to weather hazards, pests, crop diseases, and climate change threaten the livelihoods of many smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Uninsured risks in agricultural production do not only cause severe financial consequences in the aftermath of a shock, but also during years without a shock, by discouraging a risk-averse farmer from investing in profitable agricultural production opportunities, and by limiting the adoption of practices and technologies that would improve a farmer’s expected productivity and income. Many countries are therefore looking at agricultural insurance to reduce farmers’ exposure to production risks and increase investment. This paper describes the findings from an impact evaluation of a novel crop insurance scheme in the state of Haryana, India.

Farmers in Haryana have limited access to instruments for managing agricultural production risks. Although they have access to the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which provides subsidized insurance coverage for major crops across India, this scheme provides incomplete coverage since it relies on average yields in an area instead of individual farmer losses. Moreover, the cost and logistical challenges for measuring yields across the country results in long delays in claims assessment and issuing payouts, depriving farmers from supplementary income when needed most. Finally, the scheme provides insurance coverage only for major crops and does not cover farmers for damage to commercial crops grown at a smaller scale.

To overcome these challenges, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), HDFC Ergo, and the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) designed Picture-Based Insurance (PBI), a solution that uses smartphone pictures of insured crops to identify damage and settle claims. PBI aims to bring out the best of both indemnity-based and index-based insurance by offering a new way of managing risk. The product assesses plot-level crop damage from a stream of georeferenced crop pictures taken from sowing to harvest, uploaded by farmers themselves using a dedicated tamper-proof smartphone app. A formative evaluation showed that this approach can reduce basis risk and improve demand for insurance without inducing moral hazard or adverse selection.

We evaluate an intervention that integrates picture-based loss assessment into a weather index-based crop insurance product and provides this product to wheat, tomato, and rice farmers across 4 districts and 100 villages in Haryana. In particular, we assigned 50 randomly selected villages to the treatment group, in which eligible farmers who regularly upload crop pictures received free PBI coverage. The remaining 50 villages were assigned to the control group, in which farmers received cash incentives instead of PBI in return for sending pictures regularly. This design allows us to identify the effect of state-contingent cash transfers versus regular cash transfers, both conditional on sending in pictures of targeted crops. The intervention took place over three years and seven consecutive agricultural seasons, including the monsoon or “Kharif” season focused on paddy, and the winter or “Rabi” season focused on wheat and tomatoes.

The intervention showed moderate take-up rates, with about 22 percent of eligible farmers accepting to participate and send in images of their crops in exchange for free insurance or cash incentives. During Kharif 2022, the last season project season, we asked farmers to co-pay for the insurance products, which reduced take-up in the treatment arm in about half, to 12 percent. However, when we consider the intervention’s reach over the life the of the project, 59 and 51 percent of the farmers invited to participate in, respectively, the treatment and control groups enrolled in the app in at least one season and around two thirds of them enrolled in the insurance product or cash incentives. The moderate take-up numbers are arguably related to a few key implementation challenges, a slow build-up of farmer rapport over time, difficulties gathering sensitive enrolment documents from farmers, and a relatively low number of PBI payouts and substantial delays in disbursing them. Despite these challenges, satisfaction among participating farmers seems high, based on both quantitative and qualitative data, and we observe relatively high take-up intentions of PBI into the future, particularly if the timeliness of payouts is improved.

To assess the effects of the intervention on our primary and secondary impact variables, we administered an endline survey with both the primary male and female decision-maker in a household. We find large effects of the intervention on insurance uptake and perceptions of insurance, and small effects on investments in the extensive margin (i.e. types of crops produced, acreage and number of seasons over which target crops are produced). However, we find very limited or no effects on investments in the intensive margin (i.e. input usage), or other agricultural, economic, and wellbeing outcomes. We believe these findings have separate implications for the private and public sector.

Our findings suggest that PBI is a useful innovation for the private sector and insurers to provide more tangible and trusted insurance coverage to farmers and increase demand for their services. However, the limited impacts on agricultural outcomes or household wellbeing suggest that – at least in the Haryana context – there is little justification to be using public funds for fostering private sector efforts to incorporate PBI in their product portfolios. Instead, many of the challenges that we faced in implementing this impact evaluation point at the need of investing in digital infrastructure, particularly for the poor and marginalized, in order to create a more enabling environment in which insurers can provide PBI and other commercial solutions in an economically viable way.

Finally, during recent seasons incoming pictures have been used to provide tailored, interactive picture-based advisories (PBA) remotely and at a low cost. Crop agronomists can review incoming pictures, together with any farmer-submitted questions or concerns, through a dedicated web platform and provide personalized text- or audio-based advice within a short time frame (usually under 24-48hs), allowing for unprecedented levels of tailoring and timeliness of remote advisories. We are in the process of concluding a second impact evaluation, assessing the effects of PBA on farming practices and other outcomes of interest, and preliminary results will also be shared in the presentation.

Speaker: Francisco Ceballos (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

26 Impacts of an innovative credit-insurance bundle for landless farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

Introduction
Agriculture is inherently risky and smallholder farmers often lack the funds to expand their operations or invest in profitable technologies and inputs. For instance, lacking documented land rights or lacking the necessary collateral limits potential borrowers’ access to formal credit (Higgins et al., 2018), and consequently potential borrowers are involuntarily limited in their borrowing, resulting in efficiency losses and potential entrapment in a low productivity equilibrium (Croppenstedt et al., 2013). One way to potentially overcome both types of credit rationing and expand investments in agriculture is through agricultural insurance. Yet, the challenges with agricultural insurance are well known (e.g., Hazell et al., 1986; Binswanger-Mkhize, 2012; Carter et al., 2017; Kramer et al., 2022), namely high costs associated with monitoring and assessing losses, resulting in high administrative loads; informational asymmetries manifesting as both adverse selection and moral hazard; the highly covariate nature of production risks; and a mismatch between insurance demand (which is highest among wealthier farmers) and who would actually benefit from risk transfers (poor farmers without the ability to self-insure). Although index-based insurance programs promoted to address some of these challenges, they have few drawbacks that can be covered by leveraging remote sensing. Now, it is essential to deepen our understanding of the extent to which it can enhance rural credit access, help smallholders manage agricultural risks (Benami et al., 2021), and improve targeted populations’ wellbeing and livelihoods.
Objective
KhetScore - a novel credit scoring method that generates credit scores using remote sensing and crop analytics - was designed by Dvara E-Registry (DER) the implementing partner for this study to overcome information asymmetries and documentation requirements in the provision of financial instruments for marginal landless farmers. This evaluation aims to find out beneficial impacts of offering farmers KhetScore loans bundled with insurance over a wide range of agricultural, gender parity, and mental health outcomes. In particular, the evaluation demonstrates the potential for this novel financial product to have transformative effects on the rural economy by strengthening financial literacy, improving credit and insurance uptake, increasing farm profits, enhancing women’s empowerment, and easing some of the mental health stresses that so often accompany near-subsistence agriculture.
Method
To evaluate the impacts, we implemented a cluster randomized trial with about 1,800 potential KhetScore clients from 58 villages of two blocks in Jajpur, Odisha. We randomized all 58 villages into a treatment arm (29 villages), where farmers were offered the KhetScore loans bundled with insurance, and a control arm (29 villages), where DER did not offer any loans or insurance products.
To estimate intent-to-treat (ITT) effects, we used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) estimators, in which endline values of outcome variables are regressed on a dummy variable indicating whether the farmer was in the treatment group, controlling for baseline values of the dependent variable and a matrix of covariates, with standard errors adjusted for the clustered nature of the experimental design. ITT provided an estimate of overall impacts of offering loans and insurance based on the KhetScore credit-scoring methodology. Assuming a positive correlation between take-up and the various outcomes of interest, these ITT effects will be a downward-biased measure of the beneficial impacts. It provided a conservative estimate of the overall program impacts and may be of greater interest to policymakers interested in the economywide impacts of the program, rather than just the effects on those households who took up KhetScore loans. Nevertheless, we also estimate impacts for those households in the sample that decided to take up these products if offered to them. We estimated local average treatment effects (LATE) (Imbens and Angrist, 1994), by instrumenting for product take-up with random assignment to the treatment group.
Findings
In this impact evaluation, we found that KhetScore loans have a wide range of significant and meaningful impacts that benefit participants in our study area. We find evidence of significant increase in the uptake (62 percent higher than the control) and renewal (28 percent higher than the control) of agricultural insurance, and an overall increase in familiarity with the terms and conditions of crop insurance. The program also increased overall utilization of credit, especially among women. Much of this overall increase comes from an expansion in formal credit uptake and not merely from a shift from informal to formal credit. In addition, households in the treatment group were more than 40 percentage points less likely to report facing difficulty in repaying their loans, indicating that the KhetScore loan and insurance bundle had particularly favorable terms.
LATE estimates that the treatment increased revenues and profits per acre by more than INR 7,500(USD 101) and INR 8,500(USD 114) respectively. As a result, treatment households had significantly higher agricultural profits, with profits nearly doubling those in the control group. We also observe important impacts on women’s empowerment and mental health. Compared to female DER clients in the control group, those in the treatment group were 28 percentage points more likely to report making contributions to household decisions regarding borrowing and 25 percentage points more likely to make contributions to household decisions about how to use borrowed money. We also find that the program had a beneficial effect on reducing stress levels especially pronounced among the other female household members who co-signed the loans. These findings also underscore the value of surveying not only the (typically male) head of the household, but also other household members since the impacts of an intervention may differ across members of a household.
Conclusion
Our findings suggest that the KhetScore credit-scoring methodology, serves to mitigate credit rationing while simultaneously enhancing the inclusivity of rural finance. KhetScore's elimination of paperwork prerequisites, specifically the need for land titles, extends access to formal credit to a previously underserved group of potential borrowers. Furthermore, the incorporation of crop insurance may alleviate collateral requirements, addressing both risk-related and quantity-related constraints in formal borrowing. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers interested in expanding access to credit and insurance for sharecroppers and tenant farmers who lack documented land rights.

Speaker: Subhransu Pattnaik (International Food Policy Research Institute)

27 Comparing Living Income methods: an application to Cameroon’s cocoa farmers

Keywords: welfare; poverty; income; value chains; agrifood systems; resilience; inclusivity; smallholders

Introduction
The analysis of poverty and the policies aimed at its reduction have predominantly been steered by conventional monetary poverty indicators. These indicators differentiate between the poor and the non-poor based on a subsistence threshold, determined by the cost of a basic basket of consumption goods priced at local rates. For international comparison, the now $2.15 ‘dollar-a-day’ concept has guided poverty statistics, establishing a cross-country standard to identify the extreme poor (Gonzalez Sabatino et al., 2023; Ravallion, 2016). While poverty analysis tools have diversified to encompass non-monetary dimensions of poverty and attempt to produce targeting friendly indicators, such as multidimensional measures of deprivation (Alkire et al., 2015), the focus on subsistence has dominated the narrative. This focus has been increasingly challenged by sluggish progress in the eradication of extreme poverty, and more recently by high income inequalities, as evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The emergence of living wage and income concepts has sought to overcome this shortcoming, defining an adequate remuneration for producers and workers in agricultural value chains as one that would enable attaining decent education, a nutritious low-cost diet, adequate healthcare and healthy housing (Anker & Anker, 2017). In comparison to other monetary poverty measures that do not necessarily reflect the required goods and services inherent in a decent living standard (van de Ven et al., 2021), the concept of living income and its related suite of indicators relies on a normative understanding of a decent life defined according to internationally accepted standards of living conditions but also informed, through a multi-stakeholder process, by elements of local culture and prevailing traditions. This approach aims at guiding policies directed at producers of global value chains, such as cocoa and coffee,

The introduction in recent years in Ghana and the Ivory Coast of a living income differential, a measure to support farmgate prices received by producers of cacao, has raised the question of the best policies and guiding indicators to foster inclusive and resilient agrifood systems in the context of internationally traded agricultural commodities. The Ghanaian and Ivorian living income differential informed a minimum price per tonne of cacao sold to exporters, one that would in theory bridge the gap between the actual income of cacao producers and the income required for those producers to live a decent life – the living income benchmark, LIB (Anker & Anker, 2017). As the LIB embodies the cost for a typical household of obtaining decent education, healthcare, housing and nutrition, the benchmark ultimately exceeds official poverty lines, thus focusing the policy discourse on sustainable and equitable poverty reduction rather than on the subsistence threshold, which does not actively address the risk of poverty traps (Barrett, 2005; Carter & Barrett, 2006)

Objective
The LI methodology, while innovative and promising for addressing income adequacy among agricultural producers, has not been systematically validated following rigorous methods for other welfare indicators (Ravallion, 2016). Our first objective is to assess the statistical reliability of LI indicators and whether they harness utility for targeting purposes. Furthermore, since the ‘living income’ concept was borne from the ‘living wage’ one, conceptualized for wage workers rather than self-employed primary producers, applying the concept to rural, agricultural environments merits assessment of its contextual relevance. We aim to assess whether the LI approach is relevant to the context of small-scale producers. Finally, the cost implication of employing these methods needs specific consideration before scaling up through established data collection processes. This paper aims at addressing these objectives using the Cameroonian cocoa sector as our case study. leveraging a large-scale, representative survey of cocoa producing households in Cameroon.

Methods
We conducted a representative survey of cacao producing households in seven regions of Cameroon to obtain comprehensive data on income, multidimensional poverty, food security, and livelihoods resources and strategies indicators for 4,140 cacao producing households. We estimate the LIB using cost data from nearly 500 sectoral service provider interviews, collected according to two different LI methodologies - the Anker method (Anker & Anker, 2017) and an alternate approach developed by Wageningen University researchers, hereafter referred to as the ‘WUR method’ (van de Ven et al., 2021).

In order to test the relevance, reliability and performance of the LI indicators, we assess their features in terms of the poverty literature axioms of monotonicity, scale invariance, replication invariance, and transferability (Ravallion, 2016). We explore the distributional properties of the LI indicators, following (Kraay et al., 2023) as part of a non-parametric analysis comparing the LI indicators with other established deprivation indicators – the prosperity gap, the multidimensional poverty index and the food insecurity experience scale – to assess errors of inclusion and exclusion. Cost analysis allows us to then quantify the operational implications of each method.

To further evaluate the utility of LI methods for targeting and policy formulation, we identify the factors that contribute to narrowing the gap between incomes and the LIB and test these across the Anker and WUR methods. First, we empirically model the ratio of total annual income to the LIB for cocoa producing households to identify the extent to which specific factors influence the LI gap. Then, given that certain producer types may be closer to the LIB than others, we apply the Oaxaca-Blinder approach (Rodgers, 2006) in order to quantify the extent to which this distance from the LIB is attributed to endowment factors, which are ‘explainable’, versus other unobservable effects, such as prices or discrimination. We define groups according to observable characteristics, namely, gender, age, cooperative membership and production scale.

Findings and conclusions
The findings of this analysis will provide a first comparative study of LI methodologies in relation to other recognized indicators of deprivation. The conclusions of the study will serve not only to guide decision-making regarding the use of these new indicators by policy makers and practitioners, but also provide a new understanding of their potential and limitations when assessed according to a set of conceptual and empirical tools validated by poverty economists.

Speaker: Katia Covarrubias (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

Food Security II

28 Food Security in Times of Conflict: The Vital Role of Humanitarian Aid and Agricultural Development

Keywords: Conflict; Food security, Food system; Agriculture; Aid

Introduction

The Syrian crisis entered its 13th year, leaving 7 out of 10 Syrians in need of assistance (UNOCHA, 2024). This protracted crisis had several outcomes on the agriculture sector, such as damaged agricultural infrastructure, disrupted food value chains, and fluctuating food prices, which aggravated the food insecurity situation in the country that was previously “self-sufficient.”

This research fits the literature that studies the main factors associated with food insecurity in conflict regions. In the context of conflicts, assistance and aid demonstrated a favourite impact on households' food security (Romano et al. 2019; Brück et al. 2019). However, research provides evidence that farmers shift towards short-term, low-profitability activities in prolonged conflicts and focus on subsistence farming when the violence intensifies. Nevertheless, even with the shift towards subsistence farming, households’ consumption might not be affected (Bozzoli & Brück 2009), meaning that agriculture could become a coping mechanism in the face of food insecurity.

This paper aims to answer the following questions:
- Do humanitarian aid, especially agricultural interventions, help improve food and nutrition security during protracted crises?
- Can households engaging in agricultural and on-farm activities during wartime maintain good food security outcomes?

Methodology

We use data from the 2017 “Crop Production and Food Security Assessment in Syrian Rural Areas” household survey in Syria. A sample of 1,381 farmer households was selected from 12 Syrian Governorates using a stratified sampling technique. The interviews were conducted with the households’ heads using a structured questionnaire.

Three indicators are used to assess the status of food security: the Food Consumption Score (FCS); the Dietary Diversity Score (DDS); and the Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI). These indicators are the outcome variables in our empirical strategy. We test the assumption that households receiving assistance and having diversified agricultural production exhibit better food and nutrition security.

We estimate the impact of a set of independent variables on food security at the household level. We grouped these variables into household socio-economic characteristics (household head gender and age, household size, number of income sources, and off-farm income); farm characteristics (share of cultivated land of the total land size, number of cultivated crops, livestock ownership, and productive assets ownership); and conflict-related factors represented by the (in)ability of farmers to cultivate their lands due to conflict-related issues (lack of inputs, unavailability of funds, unavailability of irrigation sources, and safety and security situation induced in the region where they live).

Due to the endogenous nature of conflict, we used the instrumental variable two-stage least square technique (IV-2SLS) to analyze the data.

Findings

Results of the IV-2SLS models indicate that receiving any type of aid resulted in a significant increase in the food security indicators (FCS and DDS) while it did not show any significant impact on the rCSI. The positive impact of assistance on food security corroborates the findings of Doocey et al. (2016) in northern Syria and Romano et al. (2019) in Palestine.

Regarding agricultural and on-farm activities, all farm characteristics variables improved the FCS significantly. The larger the share of cultivated land and the higher the number of cultivated crops, the higher the FCS and DDS scores. Contrarily, the impact was negative for the rCSI, where larger cultivated areas were associated with lower food security. Several studies have highlighted the linkages between a good-functioning agriculture sector and better dietary diversity outcomes (Jones et al. 2014; Koppmair et al. 2017). Our sample results suggest that households in Syria are currently more inclined to produce short-term and low-profitability crops or low-cost crops. This is in line with the findings of Arias et al. (2019) and Bozzoli & Brück (2009).

Conclusion

Evidence from the literature suggests that households “learn to live amidst conflict” (Arias et al. 2019). This paper presented the results of a study conducted in Syrian rural areas in 2017. It contributes to the growing literature linking food security to assistance in the context of protracted crisis. Moreover, it provides evidence of the potential role of the agriculture sector in improving food security outcomes. Bozzoli & Brück (2019) found that maintaining on-farm activities during wartime could enhance the post-war welfare effects, which has a significant positive effect on the post-war reconstruction efforts.

This study has some limitations. More research should be dedicated to investigating the targeting of assistance programmes, by addressing social aspects (e.g gender of the household’s head or household’s poverty status ) and assistance type (food, cash or production assistance).

Syria's conflict has brought the country's economy to its knees. The agriculture sector could save the country. However, once the war ends, the country will undoubtedly be exposed to recovery challenges. A big issue will be how to enhance food security and build resilience through agri-food system rehabilitation during the post-war transition.

References

Arias MA, Ibáñez AM, Zambrano A. 2019. Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty. World Development 119:165–184.
Bozzoli C, Brück T. 2009. Agriculture, Poverty, and Postwar Reconstruction: Micro-Level Evidence from Northern Mozambique. Journal of Peace Research 46:377–397.
Brück T, D’Errico M, Pietrelli R. 2019. The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict. World Development 119: 203–223.
Doocy S, Tappis H, Lyles E, Witiw J, Aken V. 2017. Emergency Food Assistance in Northern Syria: An Evaluation of Transfer Programs in Idleb Governorate. Food and Nutrition Bulletin 38: 240–259.
Jones AD, Shrinivas A, Bezner-Kerr R. 2014. Farm production diversity is associated with greater household dietary diversity in Malawi: Findings from nationally representative data. Food Policy 46:1–12.
Koppmair S, Kassie M, Qaim M. 2017. Farm production, market access and dietary diversity in Malawi. Public Health Nutrition 20:325–335.
Romano D, Stefani G, Rocchi B, Fiorillo C. 2019. The impact of assistance on poverty and food security in a fragile and protracted-crisis context: the case of West Bank and Gaza Strip. Bio-based and Applied Economics 8: 21-61.
UNOCHA. 2024. Overview of the humanitarian response in the Syrian Arab Republic. Available from https://www.unocha.org/syrian-arab-republic. Accessed 2024.03.15.

Speaker: Ms Kindah Ibrahim (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

29 Seasonality as a construct in sustainability and food security discourse: the case of smallholder agricultural production in Kenya

Introduction
Against a backdrop of an increasingly globalised food marketplace and increasing availability of a varied and consistent supply of fresh products on a year-round basis (Spence, 2021), consuming food that is ‘in season’ is advocated as a radical lifestyle choice and a socio-politically and environmentally conscious decision to engage in ‘ethical eating’ that has positive environmental, health, economic and societal impacts (Briguglio et al., 2017). The impact of this choice is particularly positive if food is locally rather than globally seasonal as the environmental costs, e.g., food waste and miles, associated with production in heated greenhouses, processing, and long-distance transport to market, are reduced (Vita et al., 2019). Consumption of ‘seasonal’ food is envisaged as a means of ‘reconcil[ing] our food systems with the seasons’ and realising ‘more sustainable, meaningful and healthy rhythms of growing, processing, preparing and consuming food’ (Boon and Schifferstein, 2022, p. 79). The continued prevalence of this positive conceptualisation of ‘seasonality’ in sustainability and food security discourse is indicative of a persistent ‘idealistic and “romanticised'' image’ of consumers - previously decoupled from the construct of seasonality in their everyday consumption patterns (Röös and Karlsson, 2013) - being ‘reconnect[ed] with the origins of the food they eat’; having a more nuanced ‘understanding of natural growing and production seasons of food’; and proactively choosing to consume ‘tastier, fresher and better quality [food] than that produced out of season’(Macdiarmid, 2014, p. 369). This image is premised on the idea that seasonal food production and consumption is a goal that is and should be aspired to by consumers, irrespective of their socio-economic class, due to ‘benefits [derived] in the domains of sustainability, health and wellbeing’ (Boon and Schifferstein, 2022, p.79). The idea that seasonality equates to sustainability is, however, at odds with the reality of seasonal food production and consumption reflecting a food system that is ‘spatio-temporal[ly] arrange[d] [...] [to] ensure supplies from other regions of the world’ and relies on ‘technology to achieve refrigeration and the “extension” of the growing season’ (Vincent and Feola, 2020, p.306). Moreover, the food system is ‘heavily reliant on migrant and seasonal food workers, who often face precarious living and working conditions’ and exists due to the clear ‘distinction [made] between those considered ‘citizens’, entitled to affordable food, and those working to provide these foods’ (Martínez, Brons and Wertheim-Heck, 2023, p. 2).

Objective
The objective of this study was to contextualise the construct of seasonality and its role in shaping the sustainability and food security discourse by drawing on a concrete case study, namely, smallholder agricultural production in Kenya and explore how farm households coped with the seasonal nature of production and consumption and the impact on dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes.

Method
This study was undertaken in seven counties in the Mau Narok-Cheregany complex in Kenya as part of the broader Prosperity Co-learning Laboratory (PROCOL) project. Data was collected through a modified Photovoice method, a recall questionnaire and focus group discussions. Thematic content analysis was undertaken using NVIVO. This study had ethical clearance from University College London in the United Kingdom.

Findings
The dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes of farm households in the Mau Narok-Cheregany complex reflected the influence of seasonal nature of food production and consumption. Farmers were aware that they were required to eat a balanced diet with diverse food groups to achieve good health outcomes. However, the majority of households did not consume diverse diets except during the rainy season when a variety of fresh produce was readily available in sufficient quantities and households were in a position to consume vegetable and staple crops as well as traditional indigenous vegetables foraged within and outside their farms. The majority of households kept cattle for milk production and small livestock, such as goats, sheep, chicken, and pigs, for consumption and/or sale. Milk production volumes reflected seasonal availability of feeds and fodder. Beyond the rainy season, consumption of animal source foods, fruits, and legumes was low. In addition to being impacted by seasonality, household dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes were impacted by a reduction in the diversity of foods produced associated with a move away from subsistence farming towards small-scale commercial farming. Farmers reported that they now focused on producing foods that could be sold in the market rather than for their own consumption. This led to a reliance on purchased foods which adversely impacted dietary choices as food prices followed seasonal trends, i.e. fruits and vegetables were cheap in the rainy or bumper harvest season and expensive in the dry and lean seasons. Climate change was reported as undermining household food (in)security, by exacerbating the seasonality of production and consumption, with the intensity of dry season conditions leading to crop failure.

Conclusion
Seasonality is a construct that is widely used in framing the sustainability and food security discourse but often without a nuanced appreciation for the implications and limitations of using a complex, value-laden construct that derives meaning from, and cannot be used without reference to, a given context. The results of this study underscore that, whereas in the Global North, the seasonal nature of production and its impact on consumption has largely been eliminated (Vincent and Feola, 2020), consumers’ food choices in the Global South are still impacted by seasonal differences in climatic conditions. The current prevailing conceptualisation in discourse of seasonality as an aspirational lifestyle and dietary choice should therefore be extended to capture the lived experience of smallholder farmers who are vulnerable to food insecurity and - despite producing food - consume a diet limited in its diversity. The availability of off-farm income is typically less affected by seasonality than farm income and therefore perceived as an effective mechanism to smooth food consumption (Sibhatu and Qaim, 2017). The results of this study underscore that the impact of seasonal food production and consumption is particularly adverse and acute for households with no access to off-farm income given their reliance on purchased foods during the dry and lean seasons.

Speaker: Dr Ndungu S. Nyokabi (University College London)

30 Urbanization and intra-household dietary quality: Insights from Malawi

Sub-Saharan Africa is rapidly urbanizing. Urbanization has been discerned as a salient driver of the nutrition transition, a shift of dietary patterns away from traditional diets to diets high in sugar, salt and fat (Popkin, 1999; Ruel et al., 2017). While this has been well documented in the literature (e.g., Ameye, 2023; Cockx et al., 2018; Hawkes et al., 2017), two important facets are missing in this debate. First, it is still unclear whether and how urbanization affects individual dietary patterns within the household differently. Understanding intra-household allocation of resources is crucial to effectively target policies and programs. Second, it is not well understood what the underlying drivers of changing dietary patterns are. One important aspect may be the food environment, which modifies the effect of income on diets (Herforth & Ahmed, 2015). Where we stand in terms of food environment characteristics along the continuum of urbanization, and whether the changes in consumption run through this channel has not been systematically tested.

Our study aims to explore the association between urbanization, dietary habits and nutrient adequacy, considering aspects of the food environment as mediating channels. We follow three research objectives. First, we seek to understand how household nutrient consumption patterns, specifically the ratio of macro- to micronutrients, change along the rural-urban continuum. Second, we explore differential patterns within the household. And lastly, we gauge the extent to which this association is driven by changes in the food environment, i.e. unobserved preferences, food prices, physical access and food choice.

We leverage geocoded primary data, which we collected from October to December 2022 in Malawi. Our research design employs a three-stage random sampling approach along a rural-urban gradient to capture various types of food environments. We collected market-level information in conjunction with a household survey, assessing a total of 2300 individuals from 701 households and 89 different types of markets in the surrounding area of our sampled villages. In addition to basic household information, we conducted 7-day consumption expenditure recalls and collected information on shopping behaviors. For up to five members in the household we obtained 24-h dietary recalls and individual health, physical activity and anthropometrics. Our market survey included comprehensive information on physical aspects of markets and we captured information on food items and their retail price.

We utilize nighttime lights and population density as urbanization indicators. Nutrient consumption is derived from 7-day household consumption recall and 24-hour individual dietary recall using the Malawi Food Composition Tables (MAFOODS, 2019). Nutrient adequacy is assessed against dietary reference intakes (Schneider & Herforth, 2020). Household and individual data is linked with food environments using a spatial travel-time matrix (Weiss et al., 2020). Unobserved preferences are expressed as the difference between price paid by the household and retail price for a given food item. A market food prices index is calculated as the ratio of prices from nutritious non-staple foods to unhealthy foods of the most frequently consumed food items within each group from markets. Food choice is computed by the Euclidean distance between available and purchased items. We proceed with a regression analysis, using the overall macro- and micronutrient consumption ratio per adult equivalent as dependent variables for the overall household analysis and individual consumption levels for the within-household analysis. Our main independent variable is the urbanization indicator. In subsequent analysis we use food environment characteristics as mediators between the relationship from urbanization to dietary patterns. We control for socioeconomic factors, such as education, income, age and gender, and geographical and locality-specific characteristics. To ensure robustness, we instrument urbanization with a natural path IV (Damania et al., 2017).

Preliminary statistics show variations in household nutrient patterns across urbanization levels. Drawing from Ameye (2023), we anticipate a positive urbanization-diet relationship in Malawi. A major contribution of this paper is to disentangle whether the expected trend stems from entire households or specific demographics. It may be, for instance, that adults and specifically men are consuming more out-of-home meals, while females and children consume more nutrient-dense home-cooked foods. Yet, urban children may consume more snacks. The food environment is expected to play an important role in this relationship: more variety in the food environment is associated with lower food prices, which makes even for low-income households’ healthy diets more attainable. At the same time, urbanization is associated with an increased availability of unhealthy foods. These factors may be driving unobserved preferences and food choices, which we assume to be a strong driver of food consumption patterns. Many Sub-Saharan African countries undergo similar urbanizing processes and dietary changes. Understanding the variations and implications can help to inform policy and programmatic interventions that can help shape the food environment and improve nutrition outcomes.

References

Ameye, H. (2023). Dietary quality in rural areas, secondary towns, and cities: Insights from Tanzania. Food Security, 15(6), 1563-1584.

Cockx, L., Colen, L., & De Weerdt, J. (2018). From corn to popcorn? Urbanization and dietary change: Evidence from rural-urban migrants in Tanzania. World Development, 110, 140-159.

Damania, R., Berg, C., Russ, J., Federico Barra, A., Nash, J., \& Ali, R. (2017). Agricultural technology choice and transport. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(1), 265-284.

Hawkes, C., Harris, J., Gillespie, S. (2017) Urbanization and the nutrition transition. In Global Food Policy Report, (4) pp. 34-41.

MAFOODS. (2019). Malawian Food Composition Table. 1st Edition. A. van Graan, J. Chetty, ... E. Marino-Costello (Eds). Lilongwe, Malawi.

Popkin, B. M. (1999). Urbanization, lifestyle changes and the nutrition transition. World development, 27(11), 1905-1916.

Ruel, M. T., Garrett, J., Yosef, S., \& Olivier, M. (2017). Urbanization, food security and nutrition. Nutrition and health in a developing world, 705-735.

Schneider, K. and Herforth, A. (2020). Software tools for practical application of human nutrient requirements in food-based social science research . Gates Open Res, 4:179

Weiss, D. J., Nelson, A., Vargas-Ruiz, C. A., Gligorić, K., ... Gething, P. W. (2020). Global maps of travel time to healthcare facilities. Nature Medicine, 26(12), 1835–1838.

Speaker: Vivien Hülsen (Georg-August Universität Göttingen)

31 Estimating spatial patterns of food security within Sub-Saharan African countries

Objectives: Food insecurity and malnutrition are major concerns worldwide linked to food price volatilities, financial crises, and climate change including weather shocks. Food insecurity can increase the risk of various forms of malnutrition and can have both severe short- and long-term impacts on health and well-being. Despite rapid economic growth and poverty reduction within the last three decades, food insecurity still afflicts many people In 2020, 8.9 percent of the world’s population are undernourished – this means they have a caloric intake below minimum energy requirements; 22% of children younger than five are ‘stunted’ – they are significantly shorter than the average for their age, as a consequence of poor nutrition or repeated infection, and in 2019 close to 750 million – or nearly one in ten people in the world – were exposed to severe levels of food insecurity. Moreover, current events like the Russian-Ukraine war have further strained a global food system already weakened by global inequalities, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic, with devastating consequences for poor people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Therefore, we are far from meeting the commitments made by the international community in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, in particular SDG 2, which aims to eradicate hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition by 2030, by ensuring that food is universally available, adequate and accessible Therefore, eradicating food insecurity is a top priority on the development agenda in many countries.

However, estimates of food insecurity or hunger are typically presented as national averages and only minimal information on measures of hunger and food insecurity within countries exists. Only the recent availability of better data and more capable statistical methods has enabled the first attempts at doing so on a global scale. Hence, commonly used aggregate food security indices mask within-country variation in food insecurity and are not sensitive to the distribution of the index. In addition, short-term food shocks or seasonal fluctuations are not well taken into account. Furthermore, it is crucial to recognize that food insecurity cannot be adequately assessed by relying on just one specific indicator. Different indicators are designed to capture various facets of this complex issue

We aim to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The overall objective of this project is to enhance our understanding of within-country variations of food insecurity in SSA which allows a better targeting of policy measures to reduce food insecurity. In particular, this study aims to estimate the Global Hunger Index (GHI) and its components at disaggregated levels within countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. This enables the identification of high-risk areas of food insecurity within countries and allows more precise targeting of policy interventions. In doing so, our study directly contributes to the empirical literature by estimating spatial patterns of food insecurity within Sub-Saharan African countries.

Data and Methods: We use Bayesian distributional regressions to analyze and map the GHI within Sub-Saharan African countries. This approach allows us to analyze the complete distribution of the GHI. The GHI combines four equally weighted indicators: undernourished people, wasting, stunting, and child mortality. By pooling several Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS) with demographic, environmental, and geospatial factors we create a unique data set to analyze the impact of socioeconomic, environmental, and spatial patterns associated with food security. While the calculation of stunting, wasting, and child mortality is relatively straightforward, deriving the indicator of the share of undernourished people is more complicated because of high data requirements, particularly the conversion from quantities and types of foods to associated calorie consumption. To calculate undernourishment, we use various methods for the conversion of quantities (e.g. heap to kg) such as the USDA conversion factors, and from units to calories (e.g. kg to kcal) such as country-specific or African Food Consumption Tables. There is a huge data effort because of several thousand food items and units per survey.

The analysis has four steps: First, we generate subnational microdata at the first administrative level for each survey year. Second, we gather data on covariates related to food insecurity. Third, a geostatistical approach based on a Bayesian regression is used to provide high-resolution maps of the GHI. We model subnational rates of the GHI as a function of several covariates related to human development, nutrition, health, infrastructure, and the environment. As a starting point, the normal distribution for the GHI index is assumed. Finally, we extrapolate the GHI to all admin-1 level regions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Results: Our results show considerable variation in the GHI and hence food security within Sub-Saharan African countries. The estimates also show large heterogeneity in the GHI across and within countries by socio-economic sub-groups. In addition, the spatial distribution is analyzed which allows the creation of a unique high-resolution map helping to identify hot spots of food security.

Discussion: This paper presents the first estimates of the GHI at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa. We provide a detailed within-country analysis of food security in Sub-Sahara Africa. Policy interventions to improve food security and reduce poverty depend on the effective identification of the vulnerable population as well as an understanding of the underlying determinants of both phenomena. The large share of people suffering from hunger hampers productivity and is a major obstacle to achieving sustained economic and social development. In the short term and in acute situations of food insecurity, safety nets, insurance, and social protection programs can provide immediate relief to poor households, helping them remain food secure. In the long term, improving agricultural productivity is fundamental for ensuring food security and promoting poverty reduction.

Speaker: Kenneth Harttgen (ETH Zürich)

Trade-offs and Transformation

32 Unveiling Trade-offs: Organic Farming and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil

Keywords: organic farming, GHG emissions, climate change mitigation, Brazil

1. Introduction

Organic agri-food systems are an alternative to the sustainability challenges of today’s conventional systems. However, knowledge of their effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is limited and provides heterogeneous results (Boschiero et al., 2023). This is particularly important in the Brazilian context, where the agricultural sector and land-use change contribute to a large share of GHG emissions. In addition, Brazil’s government has actively encouraged the conversion to organic farming with its National Policy for Agroecology and Organic Production in 2012. It was a federal policy that supported the sustainable development of rural communities through the adoption of agroecological and organic farming techniques. Yet, whether this policy facilitated a trend towards lower agricultural GHG emissions has not been investigated.

In this study, we explore whether Brazil’s incentives for organic farming align with its emission reduction targets. This is important because, despite the acknowledged environ- mental benefits of organic farming, a debate persists regarding its effectiveness in mitigating GHG emissions. For example, there is a consensus on its benefits for soil health, lower dependence on non-renewable resources, and diminished ecological footprint (Chamorro et al., 2016; Lori et al., 2017; Gamage et al., 2023). On the other hand, studies have reported fewer emissions per unit of land (Tuomisto et al., 2012), higher emissions per yield (Skinner et al., 2014), diminished N2O emissions (Skinner et al., 2019), or no significant difference between organic and conventional systems (Clark and Tilman, 2017). Addi- tionally, organic farming’s lower yields may require larger production areas, increasing emissions related to land-use change (de Ponti et al., 2012; Meier et al., 2015). Therefore, our study aims to assess the potential of organic farming to contribute to a low-carbon future and climate change mitigation.

2. Data and Methods

We combine two data sources. Annual farming emissions from Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2019 (SEEG, 2023) and Agricultural Census data on organic agriculture for 2006 and 2017. This creates a comprehensive data set with information from 5,537 municipalities.

With this data, we perform an econometric estimation of the effect of expanding organic farming on GHG emissions. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we integrate propensity score matching (PSM) and instrumental variable (IV) techniques. This com- bined approach allows us to account for the spatial distribution of organic farms, thereby reducing omitted variables bias. We use a targeted credit program as an exogenous source of variation to create our instrument. The program is called Pronaf Agroecologia and is part of an effort to enhance agroecological and organic farming by providing financial assistance to farmers. More specifically, the instrument considers whether a municipality is within a state that has received this credit. Equation 1 outlines the model specification.

\begin{eqnarray}\label{eq:main1}
Y_{i} = \beta\,{0} + \beta\,{1}\hat{org}{i} + \gamma \mathbf{X}{i}+ \varepsilon_{it}
\end{eqnarray}

The dependent variable (Y_i) is the absolute variation in emissions per hectare between 2017 and 2006, and org is the difference between the percent of organic farms in 2017 compared to 2006. Xi is a vector for observable municipality characteristics, including the farming sector size, different farming systems, and yields.

3. Preliminary Results

Findings from a preliminary analysis indicate that organic farming expansion is associated with lower emissions per hectare. This suggests that municipalities experiencing an increase in organic production had a decrease in total emissions per unit of land. This result underscores the complexity of the relationship between organic farming and emissions, highlighting the importance of context-specific considerations in designing effective environmental policies.

References

Boschiero, M., De Laurentiis, V., Caldeira, C., and Sala, S. (2023). Comparison of organic and conventional cropping systems: A systematic review of life cycle assessment studies. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 102:107187.

Chamorro, L., Masalles, R., and Sans, F. (2016). Arable weed decline in northeast Spain: Does organic farming recover functional biodiversity? Agriculture, Ecosystems amp; Environment, 223:1–9.

Clark, M. and Tilman, D. (2017). Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of agricultural production systems, agricultural input efficiency, and food choice. Environmental Research Letters, 12(6):064016.

de Ponti, T., Rijk, B., and van Ittersum, M. K. (2012). The crop yield gap between organic and conventional agriculture. Agricultural Systems, 108:1–9.

Gamage, A., Gangahagedara, R., Gamage, J., Jayasinghe, N., Kodikara, N., Suraweera, P., and Merah, O. (2023). Role of organic farming for achieving sustainability in agriculture. Farming System, 1(1):100005.

Lori, M., Symnaczik, S., Mäder, P., De Deyn, G., and Gattinger, A. (2017). Organic farming enhances soil microbial abundance and activity—a meta-analysis and meta-regression. PLOS ONE, 12(7):e0180442.

Meier, M. S., Stoessel, F., Jungbluth, N., Juraske, R., Schader, C., and Stolze, M. (2015). Environmental impacts of organic and conventional agricultural products – are the differences captured by life cycle assessment? Journal of Environmental Management, 149:193–208.

SEEG (2023). SEEG Brasil: O Sistema de Estimativas de Emissões e Remoções de Gases de Efeito Estufa. https://seeg.eco.br/. [Accessed 13-11-2023].

Skinner, C., Gattinger, A., Krauss, M., Krause, H.-M., Mayer, J., van der Heijden, M.

Skinner, C., Gattinger, A., Krauss, M. et al. The impact of long-term organic farming on soil-derived greenhouse gas emissions. Sci Rep 9, 1702 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38207-w

Skinner, C., Gattinger, A., Muller, A., Mäder, P., Fliebach, A., Stolze, M., Ruser, R., and Niggli, U. (2014). Greenhouse gas fluxes from agricultural soils under organic and non-organic management — a global meta-analysis. Science of The Total Environment, 468–469:553–563.

Tuomisto, H., Hodge, I., Riordan, P., and Macdonald, D. (2012). Does organic farming reduce environmental impacts? – a meta-analysis of European Research. Journal of Environmental Management, 112:309–320.

Speaker: Maria Luisa Fernandes de Araujo (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)

33 Land-use transformation and conflict: The effects of oil palm expansion in Indonesia

Introduction

We investigate whether agricultural commodity booms can lead to social conflict. The economic literature suggests that commodity booms reduce conflicts by creating employment, raising incomes, and hence increasing the opportunity cost of violence. Yet, simultaneously, stronger incentives to contest the distribution of this additional income may lead to a rising potential for conflict. This "rapacity effect" has been observed in booms in capital-intensive commodities like oil and minerals, but less so in agricultural windfalls. Our paper introduces a unique third mechanism triggered when a commodity boom causes land-use transformation—this process itself can become a primary cause of social conflict when rising incentives for land acquisition and agricultural expansion clash with ambiguous legal frameworks and non-inclusive economic institutions. In such a setting, inequalities in land rent benefits or favoritism towards certain groups can lead to social unrest and conflict, as marginalized groups resort to violence or disruption to express their grievances or claim the share of resources they feel entitled to. Our study fills a gap in the empirical literature in economics that has overlooked the role of social conflict stemming from land-use changes.
We conduct our analysis in the context of Indonesia’s oil palm boom, where from the 1990s onwards palm oil production expanded rapidly in response to rising global demand. While this boom contributed to a substantial improvement in rural livelihoods, it has also increasingly been associated with social conflicts, particularly violent land disputes. We argue that these conflicts are rooted partly in Indonesia’s institutional land governance framework. In the Indonesian context, where political representatives face strong rent-seeking incentives and the effective exploitation rights for land are biased, economic incentives for land conversion can lead to conflicts related to the distribution of economic benefits and to violent grievances over local representation.

Method

To study this issue, we link highly detailed data on local conflict outbreaks between 2005 and 2014 sourced from newspaper reports by Indonesia’s National Violence Monitoring System (NVMS) to incentives for oil palm expansion at the level of 2,755 rural sub-districts in Indonesia. Our empirical models control both for sub-district-fixed effects capturing unobserved local heterogeneities, and for common time shocks through year fixed effects. Our main explanatory variable captures national-level variation in incentives for oil palm expansion, which we bring to the local level via a suitability-based exposure measure that reflects the relative size and potential profitability of the agricultural area that is not yet used for oil palm. Our identification strategy thus relies on a one-dimensional shift-share measure. We further control for differential trends in remoteness, to account for potential reporting biases in the conflict data. We further supplement our analysis with a wide variety of secondary data sourced from satellite data and from Indonesia’s PODES village census.

Findings

We find that stronger economic pressure to expand oil palm plantations increases the incidence of violent conflicts at the local level, especially in the form of resource conflicts and conflicts involving popular justice, as well as violence around local elections. Importantly, this mechanism of conflict induced by land-use change is also distinct from income shocks in producing areas. While we find that social conflict increases with negative income shocks (negative price shocks or localized drought shocks), these variables do not change the effects of land-use change when estimated in a joint framework.
At the local level, the adverse impacts of expansion incentives are very heterogeneous. We document three major sets of results that are in line with theoretical predictions and qualitative evidence: First, social conflict related to land expansion pressure is closely related to scarcity. Adverse impacts are stronger where less land is available and where other sources of income are lacking, suggesting that competition over increasingly scarce resources could be an important driver of violence in this setting. We interpret this finding as suggestive evidence that alternative income sources in rural areas could mitigate competition for agricultural land by reducing its relative importance and hence perceived feelings of scarcity.
Second, we find that initial land distribution plays an important role. Locations with a higher share of communally-owned land experience a stronger increase in conflicts due to expansion pressure. This finding is in line with qualitative and descriptive research arguing that local elite-control over village lands had very adverse effects on social cohesion during the oil palm boom, and that resource conflicts over communal lands are frequent.
Finally, we find that expansion pressure is closely linked to election conflicts. Whenever incentives for land conversion are stronger, local elections and official appointments are surrounded by more outbreaks of violence. This is driven by elections at the village and district level, where most decisions about land-use are made in Indonesia.
Overall, our findings align with assessments by various qualitative and anecdotal sources stating that the rise in reported land disputes in Indonesia is primarily driven by imbalanced ownership and disputes over the economic potential of these lands, rather than cultural, social, or environmental factors. We also test some of these competing explanations and do not find evidence for environmental, ethnic, or migration-related disputes in our context.

Conclusion

We document that the oil palm boom increased conflicts in Indonesia despite its positive effects on income and employment. We provide evidence that this effect is driven by economic motives, distributional grievances, and an institutional setting that has historically favored local and political elites. We believe that our findings are not limited to Indonesia and might also apply in other contexts where rapid land conversion occurs. They are especially relevant in light of the fact that palm oil production in other regions of the world, such as tropical Africa and Latin America, is expected to increase significantly in the next few decades. This could lead to similar problems to those identified in the Indonesian context. Overall, our findings thus underline the importance of Indonesia’s ongoing land reform efforts and the necessity of rural land transformation to go hand in hand with conflict mitigation strategies.

Speaker: Tobias Hellmundt (University of Göttingen)

34 Modern Solutions to Age-Old Problems: Exploring the Impact of Online Food Delivery, Market Access, and Poverty Alleviation in Indonesia

Introduction:
Indonesia’s economic landscape is heavily influenced by the significant presence of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). According to the 2016 Economic Census, a staggering 99 percent of the country’s firms fall into the MSME category. A substantial portion of these enterprises operates informally, with informality shares amounting to approximately 65 percent between 2018 and 2021. Notably, the food, beverage, and accommodation sector hosts around 42 percent of these informal MSMEs, encompassing a diverse range from street vendors to established eateries (Hapsari et al., 2023; BPS, 2022).

In the context of developing economies, entrepreneurship, particularly through MSMEs, appears as a potential panacea for poverty alleviation, premised on the capitalist assumption of higher income prospects and job creation (Filippinni, 2021). Within this framework, entrepreneurship becomes a pathway to poverty alleviation. Moreover, Nirathron (2006) asserts that MSMEs, particularly those in the food and beverage sector like street vendors, act as significant absorbers of surplus labor, notably unemployed women.

Simultaneously, the advent of innovative digital platforms has ushered in a new era in Indonesia, driven by increased smartphone ownership and internet access. Among these, food delivery applications have rapidly gained traction, with platforms like Go-Food revolutionizing consumption behavior since their inception in 2015. Tenggara Strategics (2022) reports that approximately 35.5 percent of smartphone users in Indonesia, totaling around 67.2 million users in 2022, engage with the Go-Food application, generating an annual revenue of approximately 30.7 trillion IDR in 2022 alone. Beyond their substantial market influence, these platforms offer MSMEs in the food and beverage sector an avenue to join their network, granting access to a broader consumer base within a 25-kilometer radius, thus potentially expanding their market reach.

While existing literature has predominantly explored the impact of online food delivery on nutrition transitions and dietary patterns in Indonesia, there exists a notable gap regarding research on the potential of flourishing food and beverage MSME entrepreneurship and its broader implications for poverty alleviation. Hence, this study seeks to bridge this gap by examining the role of online food delivery, particularly through leading platforms like Go-Food, in fostering food entrepreneurship and augmenting overall labor market incomes.

The primary aim of this paper is to quantify the potential impact of online food delivery platforms on entrepreneurship and poverty alleviation through income generation. The hypothesis posits that the proliferation of entrepreneurship hinges on the availability of higher-income markets in urban or peri-urban environments in close proximity of economically disadvantaged neighborhoods where food MSMEs are situated, thereby attracting customers with greater purchasing power. Consequently, the main research questions are as follows: (1) Did enhanced market access facilitated by food delivery platforms contribute to the growth of food entrepreneurship in Indonesia? (2) Did this growth result in an increase in the number of laborers employed in the food sector? (3) Did villages surrounded by higher-income areas benefit from reduced trade barriers through food delivery platforms? (4) Did this initiative succeed at alleviating poverty, and fostering food entrepreneurship in lower-income villages?

Methodology and dataset
The preliminary analysis combines data from the Indonesian Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) and the Indonesian Household Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) to generate indicators of socio-economic status, labor market as well as nutrition outcomes, food consumption behavior, and entrepreneurship activity in Indonesia between the year of 2010 to 2022. The presence of Go-food services in any district is collected using web-scraping. The company started serving 5 cities at its inception in 2015 and expanded its operations to 73 cities by 2022. This gradual roll-out of Go-Food services is the main treatment variable in this study. Lastly, Indonesian Village Census data (PODES or Potensi Desa) from Indonesian Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik) is utilized to complement the survey data with village-level measures of socio-economic conditions, demography and geographical characteristics, from 2014 to 2021.

This study will employ an event study design (staggered difference-in-differences) with permanent roll-out at a different timeline based on Clarke and Schyte (2021), estimating the following regression:

LOi,t represents labor market outcome variables in district i and year t, including the (a) the employment rate in the food and beverage sector within the district (per 1,000 of local inhabitants), (b) the number of entrepreneurs (self-employed) in the food and beverage sector (per 1,000 of local inhabitants), and the (c) natural logarithm of labor market incomes in the food and beverage sector. The treatment variable takes one starting with the year when Go-Food has been introduced within the district capital and zero otherwise. In our baseline specification, ωi is the district fixed effect, which controls for average time- invariant differences across Indonesia’s districts, while θt is the year fixed effect that captures common nation-wide trends in employment and food consumption. γit is controlling for the district-specific linear trends. The error terms ϵi,t are clustered at the district level.

Preliminary Findings
The initial results indicate a 13.7% increase in real wages in the food and beverage sector immediately and in the medium term following the introduction of Go-Food. However, this effect is not significant in rural areas due to limited sample size. Moreover, there is a modest but statistically significant growth rate of 1.8% in food and beverage entrepreneurship post-rollout.

This paper offers insights for scholars and Indonesian policymakers, serving as a starting point for further research into the effects of the digital revolution via online food platforms on labor markets and poverty alleviation.

Keywords: Online Food Delivery, Go-Food, MSME, Food Entrepreneurship, Poverty Alleviation, Market Access, Food System, Indonesia

List of References
BPS. (2022). Proportion of informal employment in total employment by education level - statistical data. BPS. https://www.bps.go.id/en/statistics- table/2/MjE1NyMy/proportion-of-informal-employment-in-total-employment- by-education-level.html
Clarke, D., & Tapia-Schythe, K. (2021). Implementing the panel event study. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 21(4), 853–884. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x211063144
Filippini, Federica. (2021). Sustainability in the last mile online food delivery: an important contribution using the case study of “Glovo”
Hamflett, A. (2018, March 7). Challenging food poverty in the Digital age. LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenging-food-poverty-age-andy-hamflett
Nirathron, N. (2006) Fighting Poverty from the Street – A Survey of Street Food Vendors in Bangkok.

Speaker: Wisnu Harto Adiwijoyo (University of Goettingen)

35 Urbanisation and adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, India

Keywords: sustainable agricultural practices; technology adoption; urbanisation; climate change; panel data; Mundlak approach; India

Urbanisation is a global trend, which is expected to take place most rapidly in low- and lower-middle-income countries in Asia and Africa (United Nations, 2022). It is likely to result in major cropland and agricultural productivity losses (Bren d’Amour et al., 2017), and might foster an intensification of agricultural production. Agricultural intensification can also accelerate ecosystem deterioration (Cumming et al., 2014). Besides, climate change poses an increasing threat to agricultural productivity, especially in the Global South. In light of this, a shift of agricultural production systems away from a mere intensification of agriculture towards more sustainable production approaches is required. Sustainable agricultural practices are considered an approach to increase agricultural productivity whilst safeguarding the provision of ecosystem services and adapting to climate change (Godfray & Garnett, 2014).

We analyse how urbanisation affects peri-urban farmers’ adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. While some studies examine the implications of urbanisation for farm management decisions, literature on agricultural technology adoption and urbanisation has so far focused on conventional intensification methods (e.g., Steinhübel & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2020). Studies on farmers’ adoption of sustainable agricultural practices mostly focus on rural areas and employ cross-sectional data. We contribute to the literature in two main ways. First, we use a panel dataset from household surveys administered in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, India, in 2017 and 2020. Besides urbanisation, we control for a wide range of potential influencing factors for farmers‘ decisions, such as weather variability, institutional factors and farm and household characteristics. Second, we measure urbanisation based on the percentage of built-up area in a 200-metre radius around the survey villages in the year of the household survey and are thus able to measure changes in urbanisation in the immediate surroundings of the farm households over time.

We employ random effects probit models to analyse the adoption of four categories of sustainable agricultural practices: water and erosion management (WEM), integrated pest management (IPM), soil fertility management (SFM), and an integrated package consisting of practices from all previous categories. Since the adoption outcome variables show relatively low within-group variation and we are interested in exploring the effects of various time-invariant independent variables, a random-effects estimator is preferred over a fixed-effects estimator. We use the Mundlak approach, which allows us to address concerns about time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity across farm households and thereby seeks to reduce endogeneity concerns (Mundlak, 1978).

We find that urbanisation, measured in terms of changes in the percentage of built-up area, is associated negatively with the probability of adopting sustainable agricultural practices (statistically significantly for IPM, SFM and the integrated package). The magnitude of the coefficient is rather small, as a one percent increase in built-up area is associated with a reduction in the adoption probability by 0.3 percentage points. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that urbanisation might already threaten the viability of farming due to the loss or fragmentation of land and water bodies and increasing uncertainties about the future of farmland, which might dis-incentivise investments into agricultural land. Possibly, urbanisation also increases labour costs due to higher wages, preventing farmers from adopting often more labour-intensive sustainable agricultural practices.

In line with prior literature, we find that weather variability, measured in terms of annual and seasonal rainfall, is an important determinant of farmers’ adoption decision. We find that market integration is positively associated with adoption, which corroborates the findings of prior studies. Our results show that this is especially true when farmers sell their produce through informal marketing channels, while selling through formalised marketing channels is negatively associated with adoption. We also find a negative association between the receipt of extension services and the probability of adoption, which is contrary to the findings of most prior studies and might be explained by our peri-urban setting. Finally, we find that wealth indicators are positively related to the probability of adoption, while increasing age and education of the main decision maker reduce the likelihood of adoption.

Further research is needed to examine the effects of urbanisation on adoption over longer time periods, across different stages of urbanisation and in different contexts. Future studies should also consider the integrated use of chemical farming inputs and sustainable agricultural practices in urbanising areas, as the integration of both might strike the required balance between agricultural intensification and resource conservation. In the Indian context, the future integration of resource conservation technologies in policies and training programmes seems imperative to achieve a sustainable intensification of peri-urban agriculture and to enable farmers to adapt to progressing urbanisation and climate change. Enhancing and re-focusing institutional support like extension services, enhancing information provision and facilitating market linkages can contribute to a more widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in urbanising areas. Farmers in the most rapidly urbanising parts of peri-urban areas should be targeted to enhance their uptake of sustainable agricultural practices.

References:
Bren d’Amour, C., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.-H., Haberl, H., Creutzig, F., & Seto, K. C. (2017). Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(34), 8939–8944. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606036114
Cumming, G. S., Buerkert, A., Hoffmann, E. M., Schlecht, E., von Cramon-Taubadel, S., & Tscharntke, T. (2014). Implications of agricultural transitions and urbanization for ecosystem services. Nature, 515(7525), 50–57. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13945
Godfray, H. C. J., & Garnett, T. (2014). Food security and sustainable intensification. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 369(1639), 20120273. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0273
Mundlak, Y. (1978). On the pooling of time series and cross section data. Econometrica, 46(1), 69–85. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913646
Steinhübel, L., & von Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2020). Somewhere in between towns, markets and jobs – agricultural intensification in the rural–urban interface. The Journal of Development Studies, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2020.1806244
United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022. Summary of Results (UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 3). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf

Speaker: Verena Preusse

Traditional and Alternative Sources of Protein

36 Do ingredients matter? Exploring consumer preference for abstract vs. concrete descriptors of plant-based meat and dairy alternatives

Keywords
Consumer behaviour, Information abstraction, Plant-based alternatives

Introduction
Production and consumption of meat and dairy products have long held a pivotal role in discussions on how to make current food systems more sustainable. There is general agreement that a reduction in consumption of animal-based products bodes well for improving both planetary and human health (Willett et al. 2019). The food industry, in developed markets especially, has steadily increased the accessibility of plant-based meat and dairy substitutes. Nonetheless, the mere availability of these alternatives does not directly translate to consumer acceptance and uptake, as scepticism and negative perceptions persist among many (Collier et al. 2023). To address this, manufacturers have recognised the importance of strategic communication. Beyond offering certified labels, the language used to describe these products to consumers has been an important mechanism in enhancing the appeal of plant-based meat and dairy alternatives. Descriptors vary in abstraction, ranging from simply indicating the absence of animal-based ingredients (e.g. meat-free burger, dairy-free milk) to identifying the presence of plant-based ingredients in general (e.g. plant-based burger, plant-based milk), or highlighting the primary ingredient (e.g. lentil-based burger, soy-based milk). These different types of product descriptors trigger various expectations and perceptions amongst consumers.

Objective
The objective of the study was therefore to understand how British consumers rationalize semantic differences for meat and dairy alternatives. We explore the underlying appeal, willingness to try, taste, health and sustainability expectations that food products carry across three different levels of information abstraction: broad (meat/dairy free), intermediate (plant-based), and specific (ingredient-based).

Method
To meet our objective, data were collected through an online survey in January 2024. 1073 British participants were recruited via a panel provider. To improve data quality, quality checks were implemented with those who failed them, along with speeders and straight-liners, removed before analysis. Four meat substitutes (burger patty, nuggets, sausage rolls, mince) and four dairy substitutes (milk drink, yoghurt, cheese, margarine) which are commonly found on the British market were selected. Within each of these categories, two products were soy-based (sausage roll, mince and milk drink, yoghurt) and two were pulse-based for the meat alternatives (chickpea-based burger patty, lentil-based nuggets), or oil-based for the dairy alternatives (coconut oil-based cheese, rapeseed oil-based margarine). To firstly explore attributes associated with meat/dairy-free, plant-based or ingredient specific foods a ‘Check-All-That-Apply’ approach was used. This was supplemented by a correspondence analysis to identify which words are most closely related to the three different levels as well as further analyses based on comparisons of means between the products and their different levels of information. Descriptive statistics as well as ANOVAS were used to test appeal, willingness to try, as well as taste, health and sustainability expectations.

Findings & conclusions
We found that overall respondents had more experience with purchasing dairy alternatives than meat alternatives, with milk, margarine and yoghurt being the most purchased products from the given categories. Except for margarine, consumers consistently found products presented under the broadest category (meat/dairy-free) most appealing. Although the effect sizes are small, this also transferred to taste expectations, where meat and dairy-free products were deemed as being the tastiest. This was followed by products labeled as plant-based. Products with the least levels of abstraction, namely those referring to individual ingredients were perceived as being least tasty. More variability exists between sustainability and health expectations. Sustainability expectations are more strongly shaped depending on the ingredients used. Soy as an ingredient fares poorly for both meat and dairy alternatives, with the abstract (meat/dairy free) and intermediate (plant based) conditions perceived as being more sustainable. This heterogeneity is even more pronounced with regards to health expectations.

Our findings are relevant as they show that consumers generally do not place much emphasis on the ingredients of products when assessing appeal of substitutes. Instead they tend to prefer meat and dairy alternatives which are broadly identified under high levels of abstraction. However, in contrast to other studies (Fenko et al. 2015), when alternatives are presented by their ingredient and these (such as soy) carry pre-existing strong emotional and heuristic aversions, these can negatively influence product perceptions. In this way, our findings also support the literature on the ‘free-from’ halo (Asioli et al. 2017, Cao and Miao, 2022), which is a phenomenon where products gain desirability by virtue of being labelled as being ‘free from’ certain ingredients. Hence, products presented as ‘meat-free’ or ‘dairy-free’ alternatives, could prove to be more successful in enhancing the appeal for plant-based substitutes. For meat alternatives especially, manufacturers can leverage these findings by taking advantage of the most economical or healthy ingredients which suit their needs and have the highest marketing potential. With consumer preferences towards higher degrees of abstraction in terms of composition, they can then market their products with greater flexibility. This trend is also evident amongst dairy alternatives, albeit not as prominent. Hence, considering what type of information granularity the consumer prefers can be important in encouraging an increase in the consumption of plant-based meat and dairy products.

Speaker: Sophie-Dorothe Lieke (University of Göttingen)

37 Bison as a Food Source: the braiding of Indigenous and Western Food Systems

Keywords: agroecology, meat production, cultural revitalization, ecosystem resiliency, food sovereignty,

Introduction: Bison (Bison bison), also referred to as North American buffalo, is considered an ecological and cultural keystone species on the North American Great Plains, which despite its keystone functions, faced near extinction starting in the late 19th century. Today, despite Indigenous Nations historically being restricted and cut-off from this food source, bison herds are being restored and managed for cultural and commercial purposes by numerous Indigenous Nations. Yet, the segregated history of bison husbandry in Canada has led to differences in paradigms and resulting knowledge and management practices. According to legislation, bison animals are either legally designated as livestock or wildlife in Canada, with nearly 90% of live animals managed according to Western ranching practices. Bison natural behaviour, such as wallowing, plowing through deep snow and brush, and general grazing habits, is credited for maintaining many North American grassland ecosystem services. Braiding Indigenous and Western Food Systems and their associated knowledge of bison, including management practices, could lead to improved agroecological and production outcomes for multi-functional animal husbandry serving both food sovereignty and sustainability.

Research Objective: Identify the cross-cutting food systems and their actors pertinent for practicing food sovereign and sustainable bison husbandry in Western Canada.

Methodology: This research followed a transdisciplinary approach of working with(in) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Indigenous Science Liaison Office (AAFC-ISLO) to employing a fact-finding mission to inform a strategy for bison husbandry in Canada. Bison actors were identified through snowball sampling starting from previous and on-going research collaborations with AAFC, as well as contacting publicly established institutions, such as the International Buffalo Relations Institute and the Canadian Bison Association. Different formats, e.g. online conference calls, walkabouts, in person-meetings, and attending community conferences were used to exchange information with and between identified actors. During online video calls, walkabouts, and in-person meetings, actors were asked in a free open format to share their experience, appreciation, and knowledge of bison, as well as highlight where they see the largest barriers for the future of bison as a food source. Researchers attended conferences hosted by local Indigenous communities and conservation groups on the topic of sustainable land management to gain insights into priorities, motivations, and trending topics on bison husbandry. Information was qualitatively mind-mapped according to current and hypothetical future food system(s) related to bison husbandry in Western Canada.

Results:
Indigenous and non-indigenous livestock producers, conservationists, municipal administrators, academics, and scientists were all identified and responded to the research team requests to “talk about bison.” Through conversations, two dynamic bottom-up movements and associated food systems were identified: 1) commercial livestock industry for domestic markets; 2) bison reintroduction for eco-cultural ways of life. A third system of bison husbandry exists – wildlife conservation in national parks – which feeds into the other systems through donations and sales of live animals to manage population size as well as Indigenous partnership bison management programs. The two food systems share common Western science-based knowledge regarding bison’s role as an ecological keystone species and agree that bison as a food source is necessary for successful bison restoration, i.e. “to restore bison we need to eat bison.” Importantly, some Indigenous perspectives (e.g. Cree & Blackfoot) include the spiritual role of bison on the Great Plains. Perceived challenges for bison husbandry were also similar across actors. The systems shared multiple nodes (e.g. ecosystem conservation, access to abattoirs, animal breeding & procurement) within a greater Western Canadian food system.
Overall aspects mentioned as related to bison husbandry in Canada included – cultural revitalization, spirituality, feed (prices), connection to the land, food security, animal agency, ecosystem restoration/engineering, economics, circular/buffalo economy, sustainability, biodiversity (genetic diversity), processing, fencing, financing, food security, fire, access to markets, livelihoods/occupation. The first four aspects were exclusively expressed by Indigenous actors, whereas the other aspects were expressed by both Indigenous and non-indigenous actors.
One main challenge for the future of bison husbandry came up multiple times within both food systems: access to government inspected bison abattoirs / legal distribution of prepared meat. This was mentioned in connection with aspects such as food security, access to markets, access to appropriate food (e.g., culturally relevant food is also safe food), commercial competitiveness, and limited bison meat supply compared to demand. A subsequent policy analysis of current food safety regulations in Western Canada pointed out that current regulations create barriers for expression of food sovereignty and negatively impact food security from bison meat procurement. Not all provinces (federal states) have the same regulations and less restrictive practices were found in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. If implemented at a wider scale, regulations such as allowing the sale of uninspected meat with the appropriate labelling, could benefit isolated populations, particularly Indigenous communities, in increasing legal access to meat and economic livelihoods. Other provinces are encouraged to consider alternatives for on-site slaughter and processing so that more products may enter the supply chain as saleable products as well as through community institutions, such as food banks and community sharing. In addition, loosening restrictions on movement of meat between provincial jurisdictions could allow for increased trade amongst Indigenous Nations and thus improving food sovereignty.

Conclusion:
Bison husbandry is a success story for species and biodiversity conservation; yet, in terms of social and economic sustainability the system remains imbalanced, largely due to institutional and jurisdictional complexities. Some existing Western regulations could be leveraged to meet constraints hindering Indigenous food sovereignty. Future bison food systems are likely to become more diverse and further establish themselves as agroecological systems, where bison husbandry is valued beyond the provisioning ecosystem service of food. Thus, creating an opportunity for the bridging of Indigenous and Western knowledge systems for the betterment of the agriculture sector at local, national and international levels.

Speaker: Brianne Andrea Altmann (University of Kassel)

38 Consumer Response to Price Increases for Meat Dishes in University Canteens: Exploring the Impact of Animal Welfare Standards and Subsidy Reduction

Keywords: price sensitivity, food service, sustainability, meat consumption, consumer behaviour
Introduction: Enhancing food service represents a crucial step towards transitioning to healthier and more sustainable food systems. Within this context, university canteens hold significant potential to instigate positive transformations in dietary patterns, particularly by advocating for reduced meat consumption. The implementation of price adjustments for meat dishes emerges as a viable strategy for curbing their consumption, as substantiated by a body of empirical research elucidating the correlation between product price and demand. This observed phenomenon is underpinned by the economic principle of price elasticity of demand, wherein increased prices deter consumption due to heightened cost sensitivity among consumers. The implementation of such strategies within university canteens, where students typically exhibit a heightened awareness of prices, may encounter resistance. Thus, ensuring consumer acceptance of proposed changes is imperative to effecting sustainable alterations within university canteens.
Our study explores potential avenues to mitigate this resistance by testing consumer responses to justifications for price increases. Specifically, we investigate how consumers in university canteens might be more accepting of higher prices for meat dishes if they are informed that the increase is justified by sourcing meat from suppliers adhering to high animal welfare standards or by reducing subsidies for meat dishes. These justifications appeal to ethical and economic considerations, offering a rationale that aligns with consumer values and concerns. By providing transparent and morally resonant reasons for price adjustments, canteen operators can potentially foster greater acceptance of changes in pricing structures, thereby facilitating shifts towards more sustainable and socially responsible food consumption habits.
Objective: Our objective was to employ a participatory approach to assess the level of support and resistance to potential justifications for increasing the price of meat dishes, alongside evaluating their impact on the frequency of canteen visits.
Methods: We conducted a survey among students and employees of three large German universities across two cities. Employing a vignette approach, we presented four scenarios regarding justifications for a price increase of meat dishes and variations in the price increase. Each participant evaluated two scenarios.
Scenarios were diversified across three attributes, each with two different levels: justification type (high animal welfare standards and subsidy), proportions applied (proportion of meat meeting high animal welfare standards: part and totality, and proportion of subsidy given: partial or absent), and dish price increase (25% and 70% more expensive). The percentage of price increases was calculated based on the disparity between student, staff, and guest prices, considering governmental subsidies. For each scenario presented, participants rated their level of support and resistance from none (0) to maximum (100) and how often they would continue eating at the canteen.
Findings: The valid sample comprised 3,521 respondents (80% students; 58% meat eaters). At the aggregate level, the scenario presenting a 25% price increase due to a proportion of meat meeting high animal welfare standards garnered the highest support (77 points), the lowest resistance (19 points), and a 4% increase in visit frequency. Conversely, the worst scenario comprised a 70% price increase due to the absence of subsidies for meat dishes, resulting in a support level of 54 points, a resistance level of 37 points, and a 12% decrease in visit frequency intention. The other two scenarios had the following results: a 70% increase in meat dishes due to all meat coming from high animal welfare standards exhibited a support level of 70 points, resistance level of 27 points, and a 4% decrease in visit frequency, while a 25% increase in meat dishes due to partial subsidies resulted in a support level of 63 points, resistance level of 31 points, and a 4% decrease in visit frequency. The scores were consistent across the two cities.
When considering only meat eaters, the pattern remained consistent, albeit with lower acceptance, higher resistance, and more substantial declines in visit frequency intention. The best-performing scenario (25% price increase due to high animal welfare standards) elicited superior acceptance with 69 points support, 28 points resistance, 4% visit frequency decrease compared to the worst-performing scenario (70% price increase due to no subsidies for meat dishes) with 35 points support, 57 points resistance, and a 34% visit frequency decrease. The other two scenarios also demonstrated varying degrees of support, resistance, and visit frequency changes among meat eaters.
Conclusions: Our study elucidates the nuanced interplay of consumer perceptions regarding potential price adjustments in meat-based offerings within university canteens. Our findings demonstrate that rationales grounded in ethical and economic principles, such as sourcing meat from suppliers adhering to elevated animal welfare standards or diminishing subsidies for meat dishes, exert a substantial impact on consumer receptivity. Notably, scenarios entailing a modest 25% price increment, accompanied by a proportion of meat aligning with high animal welfare standards, elicited the highest levels of endorsement and minimal resistance, further prompting an inclination towards increased visitation. Conversely, instances involving a pronounced 70% price surge owing to the withdrawal of subsidies for meat dishes exhibited diminished support, heightened resistance, and a conspicuous decline in visitation intentions. Additionally, our results underscore the pivotal role of animal welfare considerations in shaping consumer inclinations within such settings. Intriguingly, even a considerable 70% price escalation attributed to sourcing all meat from suppliers upholding stringent animal welfare standards garnered superior acceptance compared to a mere 25% price elevation stemming from partial subsidies. This highlights consumers' substantial valuation of ethical sourcing practices and their willingness to endorse initiatives promoting humane treatment of animals. These findings underscore the mounting significance of animal welfare standards as a determinant of consumer decision-making, not solely confined to individual purchasing behaviours but extending to institutional dining services like university canteens. Consequently, integrating measures to uphold animal welfare standards emerges as a pivotal strategy for augmenting consumer satisfaction and catalysing positive shifts towards more ethical and sustainable dietary patterns. The results add to ongoing stakeholder discussion on how to design university canteens to help the transition to more sustainable and healthy diets.

Speaker: Aline Simonetti (University of Bonn)

39 Choice experiment assessments of the target consumer group of insect-based food and their preferences for product labelling

Keywords: alternative protein, potential early adopters, edible insects, food labelling, latent class logit

Introduction and Objectives
In the search for innovative and sustainable protein sources, the consumption of insect-based food (IBF) has emerged as a promising option, as they offer environmental benefits and nutritional value comparable to meat. However, commercialising IBF in Western countries has proved difficult in the face of high consumer resistance. Nonetheless, there are also consumer groups (“potential early adopters”) who are open to try them. To make IBF more appealing for these consumers, producers could provide diverse food labels to create informative and attractive product packaging. However, no study has yet investigated the heterogeneity of preferences for IBF labelling among the different segments of potential early adopters, which is necessary for creating targeted marketing measures. This is an important knowledge gap, as even potential early adopters vary significantly in their preferences and expectations of IBF. Thus, the present study aims to identify the different consumer segments for IBF and determine their product attribute preferences.

Methodology
This study is based on an online survey with 922 participants, considering gender, age and residence at state level to resemble the German population. Consumers who are (slightly) open to eating IBF, and are (partially) responsible for grocery shopping and/or meal preparation in household were eligible to participate.

To determine consumer preferences for food labelling, two discrete choice experiments (CEs) with real product packaging were conducted. In cooperation with the Swiss start-up Essento, we selected two products covering different meal situations from their product portfolio: insect-based meatballs and insect-based crackers. Based on the original product packaging, we worked together with professional packaging designer to create new packaging designs to include the following product attributes for the CE: nutritional information (Nutri-score; Reference Intakes; no label), sustainability claims (CO2 neutral; soy free [for meatballs] /palm oil free [for crackers]; no label), naturalness claims (100% natural ingredients; no additives; no label), trust indicator (Stiftung Warentest [institutional product recommendation]; ambassador endorsement [interpersonal product recommendation]; no label), insect labelling (with high-quality protein from mealworms; with high quality protein from insects) and price (1.99€ - 5.49€ [for meatballs] / 0.99€ - 4.49€ [for crackers]).

All participants received both CEs in randomised order, i.e. some received the CE meatballs first, others the CE crackers first. The experimental design was optimized using Bayesian efficient design. Each participant received six random choice sets for each CE, featuring two product alternatives and a ‘no-buy’ option in each choice set. The survey was concluded with socio-demographic questions.

The CE data was analysed using latent class logit model, as it recognises consumer heterogeneity and identifies consumer segments with homogenous preferences. The segmentation was determined based on participants’ choices in the CEs. To assess the socio-demographic characteristics of each class, the following covariates were included in the model: age, gender, prior experience of eating IBF, hometown size and income. Based on model fit criteria, the four-class model was identified as the optimal solution for both products.

Findings
Descriptive statistics indicate greater consumer openness to buying insect-based crackers than insect-based meatballs, with participants choosing the no-buy option in 37% of the total choice situations for the meatballs and 32.3% for the crackers.

The analysis for the insect-based meatballs revealed two price-sensitive consumer segments (1, 2) with a strong preference for the product, a sceptical segment (3) with some buying inclination and a reluctant segment (4). All three segments with a preference for the product attached the highest importance for naturalness labels, and tended to include more younger people, male consumers, people with prior experience and from big hometowns than the reluctant segment. All four segments showed a high preference for the institutional trust indicator. Sustainability claims and nutritional information were almost equally liked by all segments and were only more important than trust indicator for Segment 3. In terms of insect labelling, segments 1 and 2 with a strong preference for the product preferred specific insect species information, while the other two segments preferred general insect labelling.

For insect-based crackers, all four segments showed potential to buy the product, however, only consumer segment 1 expressed a strong preference, which consisted of the most number of young people and people with prior experience. Price was the most important attribute for segments 1, 2 and 4, but not for segment 3. Regarding food labelling, three segments attached the greatest importance to the naturalness claims, while segment 4 expressed no particular liking, except for the general insect labelling. While segment 1 attached almost equal importance to the other attributes, sustainability claims were the next most preferred attribute by segment 2 and 3, with segment 2 showing a clear preference for CO2 neutral and segment 3 for palm oil free. As in meatballs, Stiftung Warentest was the preferred trust indicator for all segments. Specific insect species information was, again, liked by segments 1 and 2 with a stronger preference for the product, while the other two classes preferred the general insect labelling.

Conclusion
The present study identified two distinct potential target groups for both products: The most promising group consists of two segments (1, 2), preferred insect species information and were price sensitive. Another group consists of sceptical consumers (3) with a tendency to buy high-priced products and a higher preference for general insect labelling. Compared to the main focus of IBF marketing, sustainability and nutritional information were not the most important purchasing arguments for all consumers. Instead, our study showed the key role of naturalness and institutional trust indicator, suggesting the need for marketing shifts to emphasise the natural aspect of IBF and provide consumers with reassurance about food safety and quality.

Speaker: Berlianti Puteri (University of Kassel, Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, Department of Agriculture and Food Marketing)

13:10 Lunch

Plenary Session 2: Klaus Grunert (keynote 3) and Sanchayan Banerjee (keynote 4)

40 Hedonic reward and informational gratification: Perspectives for behavioural change towards a healthier and more sustainable diet

In this presentation, I will start with three fundamentals of food choice that I regard as important for achieving behavioural change. First, food choice can be made both under high and low involvement conditions, and the degree of conscious elaboration in food choice will therefore vary. Second, any food choice is only an element in a series of food choices over time, and any food choice has consequences that will have an impact on future food choices. Third, taste is still the prime factor in the development of food preferences. Based on these premises, I will discuss the role of information in food choice. Information has always been used as a quality cue predicting the taste experience that is unknown at the time of purchase, but with the increasing role of credence characteristics like health and sustainability, information has received a much broader role in food choice. How this role plays out depends among other factors on the degree of involvement both during food choice and during food consumption and how information-based food choices align with subsequent taste experience. I will discuss consequences of these mechanisms for behavioural change in the food area, both by providing information like in labelling schemes, and by changes in the choice environment.

Speaker: Prof. Klaus G. Grunert (Aarhus University)

41 Behavioral and Economic Policies for Sustainable Dietary Transition

Current food choices have a high environmental footprint, rendering them incompatible with both climate objectives and broader sustainable development goals. Transitioning to “planetary health diets” is important and demand-side meat reduction policies are required at scale urgently. However, existing food policy has predominantly favoured softer approaches, such as behavioural "nudges," which subtly alter choice environments without imposing bans or raising costs. While nudges can be effective, scaling them up has presented challenges, often raising ethical concerns regarding their implementation. This keynote introduces three innovative alternatives to traditional nudges, proposing new strategies to tackle the pressing challenge of dietary transitions. First, it introduces a novel behavioral toolkit —nudge+— which emphasises designing more autonomous food policies that empower individuals to act sustainably. Nudge+ accommodates individual diversity and heterogeneity by encouraging reflection alongside nudges. Drawing on a series of behavioral economics experiments related to food choices, the keynote outlines evidence that suggests nudge+ can improve both the efficacy and legitimacy of standalone nudges in promoting sustainable dietary behaviors. Second, the talk will advocate for the introduction of economic policies, particularly meat taxes and voluntary carbon offsets, addressing and dispelling common myths surrounding these underexplored, yet crucial, policy measures. Lastly, the keynote will stress the importance of adopting a more open-minded approach to policy combinations and sequences, underscoring the value of leveraging policy complementarities and synergies. If we are to seriously address the climate crisis and mitigate the emissions associated with livestock, urgent action is required. The time to act is now.

Speaker: Prof. Sanchayan Banerjee (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Climate Change and Nutrition

42 How climate shocks impact nutrient adequacy in Tanzania

Keywords: Climate shocks, nutrient adequacy, double burden of malnutrition

Introduction: Climate change and food production are deeply intertwined. Roughly 25-30% of all greenhouse gas emissions stem from food systems (Poore & Nemecek, 2018). Simultaneously, climate change disrupts agricultural outputs through rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, drought, storms, and more extreme weather events (Hansen et al, 2011; Fisher et al., 2015). These climate impacts cascade through agroecosystems, often destroying crops and altering pests, pathogens, and weed pressure on crops. Ongoing declines in pollinator populations, rising water scarcity, increasing ground-level ozone, and collapsing fisheries exemplify these complex dynamics (Altieri et al., 2015). The effects appear most severe in lower-income regions already facing food insecurity (IPCC, 2022). Numerous studies have traced sharp agricultural yield and food security drops to extreme weather events (Amare et al., 2018; Fanzo et al., 2018). However, research on subsequent impacts on nutrition security and potential mediating factors still needs to be conducted (McLaughlin et al., 2023). This knowledge gap is especially concerning for regions confronting the double burden of malnutrition. Closing it should be a top priority.

Objective: To assess how climate shocks alter diets - via macro- and micronutrient intake shifts - and investigate the drivers of these dietary changes.

Data and Methods: Our primary data source is the nationally representative Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS), spanning 2008-2019 across five waves. The survey comprises over 16,639 households and includes detailed modules on agriculture, livestock, community dynamics, and more. We supplement TNPS with food diaries from the Survey of Household Welfare and Labour to quantify consumption of various food groups and estimate intake levels of calories, macronutrients, and micronutrients. Households from the TNPS are linked with geospatial data on rainfall, temperature, and water scarcity to capture exposure to climate shocks.

Given its high double burden of malnutrition, rapidly growing urbanisation, diverse agro-ecological zones, and rainfed agricultural systems facing mounting climate risks, Tanzania provides an opportune setting. Much of the rural population relies on fisheries, also threatened by sedimentation and warming waters. Despite abundant water resources overall, spatiotemporal scarcity remains widespread.

We estimate the impact of climate shocks on macro- and micronutrient consumption via fixed effects regression, sequentially integrating covariates like socioeconomic status, agro-ecological zones, and explanatory mechanisms around yields, production, income, and livelihoods. Our approach controls for multiple hypothesis testing and cluster-robust standard errors. Robustness checks employ difference-in-difference models leveraging major weather events.

Findings: Our analysis reveals significant reductions in calorie intake and essential nutrient consumption for those exposed to climate shocks. However, the declines appear disproportionately concentrated in vitamins and minerals compared to calories and macronutrients. This implies households switch away from nutrient-dense foods like vegetables, fruits, and animal products towards calorie-dense staples in response to climate stresses. Investigating potential mechanisms, we find falling incomes, rising food prices, and reduced personal production primarily drive the changes in nutrient intake.

Crucially, it is important to note that our calculations likely underestimate the actual decline of nutrient levels in food. This is because increased levels of CO2 directly lead to a reduction in protein, iron, zinc, and other mineral concentrations in key crops such as wheat, rice, potatoes, and barley. Consequently, these staple foods may be less nutrient-dense than their current nutritional profiles suggest (Myers et al., 2014).

Conclusion: These findings carry important implications for regions like Tanzania confronting rising micronutrient deficiencies (Ameye, 2023) and nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (Bigna & Noubiap, 2019). Climate shocks not only reduce calories and macronutrients, but disproportionately diminish micronutrient intake through constrained access to produce, meats, fish and dairy. As fresh foods become costlier and less available, households increasingly rely on packaged and ultra-processed items. Such dynamics may further accelerate preferences for food-away-from-home (e.g., rapidly rising in Tanzania (Ignowski et al., (2023)), linked to higher saturated fat and sugar consumption plus escalating obesity and diabetes. Climate resilience and nutrition security demand integrated “double duty actions.” Alongside addressing hunger, solutions must encompass sustainable food systems, enhanced micronutrient density in staple crops, and reduced overconsumption - particularly of less healthy processed foods.

References:
Altieri, M.A., Nicholls, C.I., Henao, A. and Lana, M.A., 2015. Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems. Agronomy for sustainable development, 35(3), pp.869-890.

Amare, M., Jensen, N. D., Shiferaw, B., & Cissé, J. D. (2018). Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption. Agricultural systems, 166, 79-89.

Ameye, H. (2023). Dietary quality in rural areas, secondary towns, and cities: Insights from Tanzania. Food Security, 15(6), 1563-1584.

Bigna, J. J., & Noubiap, J. J. (2019). The rising burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. The Lancet Global Health, 7(10), e1295-e1296.

Fanzo, J., Davis, C., McLaren, R., & Choufani, J. (2018). The effect of climate change across food systems: Implications for nutrition outcomes. Global food security, 18, 12-19.

Fisher, M., Abate, T., Lunduka, R. W., Asnake, W., Alemayehu, Y., & Madulu, R. B. (2015). Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Climatic Change, 133, 283-299.

Hansen, J. W., Mason, S. J., Sun, L., & Tall, A. (2011). Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Experimental agriculture, 47(2), 205-240.

Ignowski, L., Belton, B., Tran, N., & Ameye, H. (2023). Dietary inadequacy in Tanzania is linked to the rising cost of nutritious foods and consumption of food-away-from-home. Global Food Security, 37, 100679.

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp.

McLaughlin, S. M., Bozzola, M., & Nugent, A. (2023). Changing Climate, Changing Food Consumption? Impact of Weather Shocks on Nutrition in Malawi. The Journal of Development Studies, 59(12), 1827-1848.

Myers, S. S., Zanobetti, A., Kloog, I., Huybers, P., Leakey, A. D., Bloom, A. J., ... & Usui, Y. (2014). Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature, 510(7503), 139-142.

Poore, J., & Nemecek, T. (2018). Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science, 360(6392), 987-992.

Speaker: Hannah Ameye (Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn)

43 How is climate fuelling the thirst for sweetness? Exploring drivers and adaptation

Keywords

Climate change, adaptation, weather, unhealthy diet, sugary drinks, retail
JEL: D12, Q54, I12

Introduction

Two out of five American adults are obese, driven by excessive calorie intake and a lack of physical activity. Extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly extreme heat. They directly negatively impact health (Deschenes & Greenstone, AEJ:AE, 2011) and physical activity (Zivin & Neidell, JLE, 2014). However, amid the current syndemic of obesity and climate change, little is known about the effect of extreme temperatures on dietary behaviour, particularly consumers’ beverage choices. Americans are among the highest consumers of sugary drinks globally (Lara-Castor et al., Nature Com., 2023). Physiologically, there is no rationale for consuming sugary drinks to fulfil the body’s increased hydration needs in hot temperatures. High sugar intake contributes to weight gain and chronic diseases and may exacerbate dehydration.

Objectives

This study aims to improve our understanding of how climate change affects dietary behaviour by (1) examining the impact of extreme temperatures on soft drink purchases and (2) investigating potential drivers and the mitigating effect of adaptation to climate. Historically, the economic literature has focused on the effects of weather on economic productivity rather than consumption (Burke et al., Nature, 2015). This paper contributes to recent works studying the impacts on investment decisions and retail sales (Liao et al., JAERE, 2020; Roth Tran, MS, 2023), including the strand investigating psychological mechanisms (Busse et al., QJE, 2015). While the agricultural economics literature has demonstrated the negative impact of climate change on crop yield and food security (Costinot et al., JPE, 2016; Wheeler & von Braun, Science, 2013) and the public health literature has found an association between extreme heat and highly processed food purchases (Lopez-Olmedo et al., FN, 2021), this study provides the first evidence of a causal effect on dietary behaviour using detailed longitudinal data and explores potential drivers. It also contributes to a large body of work investigating adaptation to climate, including on household spending (Lai et al., Nature HB, 2022), agricultural outcomes (Burke & Emerick, AEJ:EP, 2016), and health outcomes (Carleton et al., QJE, 2022).

Methods

The analysis is based on household purchase data from the nationally representative NielsenIQ Consumer Panel 2011-2019 matched with meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Zip code-level daily inverse-distance weighted average of the (up to) five closest weather stations within a maximum radius of 300km to the centroid geolocation are computed for each weather variable (Barreca et al., JPE, 2016). The sample size is 3,933,041 household-month observations, including data from 94,738 unique households in 11,954 zip codes across the continental US.

The main specification consists of Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood household-level multi-way panel fixed effect regressions. We exploit the randomness of weather shocks after controlling for seasonality and location (Dell, Jones & Olken, JEL, 2014). The dependent variable is the monthly per capita volume purchased and the main independent variables consist of a series of 16 five-degree daily maximum temperature bins ranging from below 25°F (-4°C) to over 95°F (35°C). Household, county x month-of-the-year, and year x quarter-of-the-year fixed effects are included, as well as additional controls for other weather characteristics and time-varying household characteristics.

Various potential drivers and modifiers are investigated. Further, we test for decreasing marginal effects with short-run repeated exposure to extreme temperatures using fourth-order polynomials of the independent variables. Finally, we investigate long-run climate adaptation by historical experience by interacting the occurrence of extreme temperature days with their zip code-specific historical probability (based on 1980-2010) as a proxy for unobserved adaptation investments (Roth Tran, MS, 2023).

Findings

Volume sold rises non-linearly with temperatures with positive effects above 80°F (27°C). An extra day with a maximum temperature above 95°F (35°C) increases the average monthly per capita purchased volume of sugary drinks by 0.3% and bottled water by 0.6%. Temperatures do not affect diet drink purchases (containing non-sugar sweeteners). Extreme cold days have minor and non-statistically significant effects. The immediate effect of extreme heat is persistent and not offset by inter-temporal shifts.

Extreme heat days have a minor impact on the monthly frequency of shopping trips (-0.05%). Effects on volume are driven by trips to convenience stores, which tend to be closer to household locations and display more unhealthy beverage options. We do not evidence inter-channel substitutions with the on-trade sector (e.g., bars). Using the NielsenIQ Retail Scanner dataset 2011-2012 and Fisher price indices for 32,742 stores across the country, we observe limited price adjustments to temperatures by retailers (-0.06% to 0.05%), in line with Gagnon and López-Salido (JEEA, 2020). Results marginally support salience as a psychological mechanism based on temperature shocks relative to zip code-specific historical weather.

Rural households’ sugary drink purchases are more sensitive to extreme heat, but we find no differences by income level. Working in an outdoor occupation amplifies the effect, likely due to higher exposure and lower adaptation capacity. Other potential unobserved drivers may include heat-induced mood change or stress and advertising adjustments.

We observe constant marginal effects for repeated extreme heat exposure in the same month for sugary drinks but decreasing marginal effects for bottled water. While the human body can acclimate to repeated heat exposure (Sexton et al., JAERE, 2022), our results may highlight persistent heat-induced craving for sugar. In line with Roth Tran (MS, 2023), we find evidence of long-run adaptation with historical cold exposure but not heat exposure, except for bottled water.

Applying these results to downscaled daily climate predictions from NASA Earth Exchange, we plan to estimate the distributional impact of climate change on sugary drink intake up to 2100 by US climate regions.

Conclusion

Future increased extreme heat frequency is expected to stimulate sugary drink intake, with negative implications for public health. Households with higher exposure to extreme heat are more vulnerable. Acclimatization and long-run adaption by historical experience have only a limited moderating effect. These findings can inform policymaking to promote healthier diets under climate change, particularly in settings grappling with an obesity epidemic.

Speaker: Maxime Roche (Imperial College London)

44 Towards a conceptual framework linking climate change-induced natural disasters and nutrition outcomes

Keywords: Nutrition, climate change, climate-induced natural disasters, theoretical framework, food systems

Introduction
Extreme weather events and climate change can affect the nutritional status of individuals and pose major risks to long-term food and nutritional security. There are different pathways through which climate-induced natural disasters affect nutrition and WASH outcomes. These pathways can be either direct or indirect. Direct pathways include the reduction of food availability due to washing away of stored food and crops in the field, shortage of potable water to drink, and reduction in food access. All of these factors affect household dietary diversity and ultimately lead to malnutrition. Indirect pathways can affect nutrition outcomes through reduced consumption of animal food as a consequence of livestock mortality, reduction of agricultural income as a result of heat stress, water scarcity, and poor sanitation. Indirect effects include changes in markets and supply chain infrastructure demanding more food production and food prices, thereby affecting the availability and accessibility of food by vulnerable groups such as women of childbearing age and children under five years of age.

The impact of climate-induced natural disasters on nutritional outcomes is complex and not always direct. There are several pathways through which climate-induced natural disasters affect nutritional outcomes. However, the reviewed literature presents a situation that implies that the pathways through which climate, including natural disasters, impact nutritional outcomes are independent of each other.

Objective
The objective of this paper is to propose a generic conceptual framework that shows the different pathways through which climate-induced natural disasters can impact nutrition outcomes and the possible interventions that can be implemented to reduce the impact.

Methodology
The development of the conceptual framework was based on theories and concepts derived from the literature and on findings from previous studies on the impact of climate-induced disasters on food heritage (Dembedza et al., 2022) and nutrition outcomes (Dembedza et al., 2023).

The proposed conceptual framework was based on two design principles. The first principle is the systems approach theory (Ackoff, 1971). The systems approach theory focuses on systems as a whole and not on individual components. Ackoff (1971) argued that the performance of any system is influenced by the ability of the different stages of the system to work together to achieve the desired output, that is, total system performance. Hence, a systems approach allows for an understanding of the several components that make up a system, and how and which factors can affect the performance of the system. Therefore, this theory advocates a holistic approach when trying to show the interlinkages between different components and how they influence the performance of a system. Thus, the system approach was adopted to design the conceptual framework.

The second design principle is based on contingency theory. This theory examines the interaction between the food system chain and its environment (Macheka et al., 2020). The theory suggests that interventions within a system should be tailored to the context in which the system operates. It is important to investigate the interaction between a system and its environment because its effectiveness depends on the interaction of the system with the environment (Luning and Marcelis, 2006).

Findings
The conceptual framework presented in this section draws primarily from elements of existing theoretical and conceptual frameworks to provide an understanding of the complex interlinkage between climate-induced natural disasters and nutritional outcomes. The conceptual framework was built using six pillars.

Based on theories from the literature, we categorized the impact of climate-induced natural disasters (Pillar 1) on nutrition outcomes. The food system (pillar 2) is central to the framework, as the pathways to impacting nutrition outcomes are either directly (pillar 3) or indirectly (pillar 4), which is through an influence on any stage of the food system. Pillar 5 of the conceptual framework is an outcome variable, in this case the nutrition indicators and outcomes, which provide measures that can be used to investigate the impact of climate-induced natural disasters. Lastly, Pillar 6 presents various interventions that can be implemented to minimize the impact of climate-induced natural disasters on nutritional outcomes. Therefore, the proposed conceptual framework provides a holistic assessment of the impact of climate-induced natural disasters on nutritional outcomes and intervention strategies that can be implemented. The conceptual framework is illustrative and can be tailored to specific contextual situations. This section discusses the pillars used in designing the conceptual framework.

Conclusion
Such a framework, as we have put forward in this study, can help inform measures to put in place to mitigate the effects of climate change and natural disasters on the impact of nutrition. However, it is important to note that the proposed framework should be tailored to a specific type of disaster and its impact. Moreover, there is a need to further evaluate the conceptual framework in different contextual settings involving climate-induced natural disasters. Future work can also be done to include operationalization of the conceptual framework into an assessment tool.

Speaker: Vimbainashe Prisca Dembedza (Ms)

From consumer Psychology to Policy Advocacy

45 Driving Factors of Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Organic Foods in Iran: Insights from a Mixed-Methods Study

Keywords:
Willingness to pay, attitude of consumers, organic food in Iran.
Introduction
There is a growing global interest in organically produced foods, fueled by concerns about residual toxins and chemicals, as well as worries regarding food-related disorders and diseases. Additionally, increased awareness of the environmental and health impacts of intensive farming practices contributes to this trend. In Iran, despite the absence of established infrastructures, there is a gradual emergence of a preference for organically produced products among consumers, influenced by factors such as consumer recognition and education (Haghjou et al., 2013; Bagher et al., 2018).
The literature on the consumption aspect of organic food systems emphasizes the importance of consumer awareness and attitudes towards organic products (Paul & Rana, 2012; Kumar & Ali, 2011), as well as the significance of product labeling (Janssen & Hamm, 2012), in determining consumer willingness to pay (Katt & Meixner, 2020).
Despite the rapid growth of the global organic products market, the organic market in Iran has remained relatively underdeveloped (Willer et al., 2023). Therefore, there is a need to address this issue to better understand the key factors that can contribute to its development.
Objective
The current study seeks to explore the demographic and attitudinal factors that may influence consumers' willingness to pay for organic products. Additionally, it aims to identify the key factors perceived by consumers as crucial for the development of the organic food sector.
Method
This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative methodologies through the use of surveys administered via questionnaires and interviews conducted with consumers at vegetable markets. Respondents were selected from vegetable markets in the central cities of various provinces, chosen based on their potential for organic and natural food production in the agricultural sector. The selection criteria included individuals who regularly shop for their household and have autonomy in making decisions about food consumption.

The research was conducted in six provinces of Iran identified as having significant potential for organic foods. The sample size comprised 460 questionnaires distributed among respondents at vegetable markets, with 454 complete responses suitable for data analysis using SPSS. The sample was stratified into six provinces for analysis.
Table 1- Distribution of samples among the cities
Stratum Number of questionnaire
Tehran 143
Mashhad 107
Shiraz 82
Kerman 53
Kermanshah 35
Gorgan 34

Findings
Almost literature about organic consumption studies socio-demographic variables as an important factor in inform about healthy and organic food and willingness to pay for it among people. The following table is a profile of demographic characteristics of the sample.

Table 2- The profile of demographic characteristics of the respondents
Characteristic Subsets Total Frequency Total Percentage
Gender Female 330 72.7
Male 124 27.3
Age (years old) Less than 25 72 15.9
26-35 164 36.1
36- 45 116 25.6
46-55 67 14.8
Over 55 35 7.7
Education level Illiterate and primary school 62 13.7
High school diploma and post diploma 223 49.1
Bachelor 107 23.6
Master’s degree, Doctorate and Ph.D. 62 13.6
Job Housewife 223 49.1
Other jobs 231 50.9
Household size 1-2 Persons 70 15.4
3-4 Persons 254 55.9
5-7 Persons 124 27.3
Over 8 Persons 6 1.3
Household Income groups 4 (The lowest) 73 16.1
3 153 33.7
2 150 33.0
1 (The highest) 78 17.2
0
Number of children below 15 years old 1 172 37.9
2 109 24.0
3 and more 13 2.9

Table 3 presents the percentage by which consumers are willing to pay a higher price for organic food compared to conventional ones in different provinces of Iran.

Table 3- The higher price percent which consumers are willing to pay to buy organic food than conventional ones
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
0% 29 6.4 6.4 6.4
1-24% 145 31.9 31.9 38.3
25-49% 153 33.7 33.7 72.0
50-74% 72 15.9 15.9 87.9
75-99% 38 8.4 8.4 96.3
100% 14 3.1 3.1 99.3
2-3 times more expensive 3 .7 .7 100.0
Total 454 100.0 100.0

To forecast consumers' willingness to pay, we employed multiple regression analysis in SPSS, employing the stepwise method. The outcomes revealed an R value of 81.3 and an R-square value of 66.1, indicating that the independent variables account for 66 percent of the variance in the dependent variable (i.e., the percentage by which consumers are willing to pay more for natural food compared to conventional ones), with an adjusted R-square of 65.3. Additionally, to gauge consumer attitudes toward food consumption, we developed several scales based on the literature review, including attitudes toward food specifics, concerns about food, chemicals in food products, and natural foods.
Through six steps, SPSS identified significant variables and eliminated others, culminating in the following regression function based on the B coefficients:
WTP= 1.95+ 0.001HI- 0.092ATN-0.040 ATC+0.112Edu+0.151 N.Ch- 0.07 Prov.
Which:
HI= Household income
ATN= Attitudes toward natural foods
ATC= Attitudes toward chemicals in food products
Edu. = Education
N.Ch. = Number of children under 15 years old in the household
Prov. = Province

Conclusion
In summary, this study highlights that consumers' willingness to pay more for organic foods is positively influenced by their awareness of food health benefits and higher income levels. Moreover, the region where consumers reside significantly impacts their willingness to pay for such products in Iran.
Furthermore, the findings from the second part of the study, which involved open-ended questions about factors influencing the purchase of organic products, underscore the importance of establishing designated organic markets within cities and implementing a government-endorsed organic products label, according to consumers.

Speaker: Arezou Babajani (Institute of Agricultural Policy and Markets, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany)

46 Emotional priming for sustainable consumption? The effects of social media content on the valuation of chocolate

sustainable consumption, willingness-to-pay, emotional priming,cause-related marketing

Current consumption patterns are not sustainable: most food products carry social and environmental costs that harm current and future generations worldwide (e.g., ILO et al., 2019; Pendrill et al., 2022). Emotional priming in social media is a widely used instrument to influence consumer behavior. Social media platforms provide various options in terms of format, frequency, and timing to deliver these emotional messages. Therefore, gaining insights into the most effective ways for policymakers, civil society, and the private sector to reach consumers with their messages on these platforms is becoming increasingly important.

In this study, we mimic social media content to test the effectiveness of emotional priming in incentivizing sustainable consumption. Specifically, we examine whether emotionally primed information about sustainability aspects in cocoa production increases consumers’ valuation for sustainably produced products in the short and medium term.

Former studies analysing the determinants of sustainable food choices find that information provision alone has limited effects (e.g., White et al., 2019) and that activating consumers’ values tends to increase their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for sustainability certifications.

Besides values, individuals' emotions can also be targeted. Research on charitable giving provides abundant evidence of how emotional appeals increase prosocial spending, regardless of participants' predisposition towards it (e.g., Cavanaugh et al., 2015; Goenka and van Osselaer, 2019). Small and Verrochi (2009) combined information and an emotional prime (photo) and found that when participants had the opportunity to deliberately process the information, the presence of additional information reduced the primed sympathy. However, if participants were under a high cognitive load and unable to process the information, the effect of the emotional prime remained unchanged. This finding is relevant to our understanding of the role of emotions in consumption behavior because the shopping environment is filled with various signals and abundant information that increases consumers' cognitive load. Priming emotions may have a lasting effect in such an environment compared to information-only interventions.

Today, an increasing number of sustainability awareness campaigns focus on priming emotions through social media content, particularly through short videos comprising a few lines of text and imagery. Examples of such campaigns include the United Nations Development Program’s initiative on carbon pricing (UNDP, n.d.) or the European Union’s campaign “make it green” (European Union, n.d.). Priming emotions in social media awareness campaigns can be a powerful policy tool because it has the potential to reach a broad audience, including consumers who may not yet be interested in sustainability and who might be left out if only information is provided (see Matthes et al. 2014).

Yet, it is not well understood whether these campaigns indeed trigger emotional responses and ultimately lead to changes in consumption behavior. Another question that remains unanswered in this context is the time gap between exposure to the social media campaign (whether emotional or informative) and the actual purchasing decision. For instance, the study by Antonetti et al. (2018) suggests that priming negative emotions may lead to increased delayed compliance compared to not priming emotions.

To investigate how emotional priming in social media campaigns affects consumers’ valuation of sustainable foods in the short and medium-term, we developed treatments that simulate social media content, specifically Instagram Reels. Our one-minute videos consist of animated slides presenting information on two aspects: (1) environmental sustainability and (2) social responsibility related to cocoa production. Each includes two different information treatments: (a) with emotional primes and (b) without emotional primes. The emotionally primed videos incorporate real-world images depicting child labor and deforestation to reinforce the conveyed information, while neutral imagery (cocoa beans) replaces these images in the non-primed counterfactual slides. The treatments are randomly assigned to 2,161 German consumers through online surveys. Our sample consists of frequent and active online users, and, hence, accurately represent the potential target audience of social media campaigns. To examine both short- and medium-term effects, we assess consumers’ WTP using a discrete choice experiment immediately after the treatments and again two weeks later.

Our study contributes to the existing literature in three ways. First, we employ an innovative media format, specifically social media videos, as our treatment. Second, we provide evidence on both short-term and medium-term effects, acknowledging the time gaps between priming and the actual purchasing decision. Previous studies have predominantly focused on short-term effects only. Third, we clearly distinguish between sustainability certificates (Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade) and uncertified sustainability claims. Limited knowledge exists regarding consumer preferences for products featuring company-specific (uncertified) sustainability claims and cause-related marketing strategies (Zerbini et al., 2019). To the best of our knowledge, no study has examined the effects of treatments on consumer valuation and perceptions of such products, particularly when compared to certified alternatives.

Our results provide several insights: Firstly, the videos featuring emotional primes indeed induce stronger levels of negative emotions in the short term. However, these effects diminish in the medium term, as all participants exhibit lower levels of emotional response. Secondly, the emotional primes also lead to increased WTP for most of the sustainably sourced alternatives, indicating positive short-term effects. Nevertheless, these effects diminish in the medium term.

These results suggest that the timing of exposure to these messages is crucial, as they should ideally coincide with the imminent consumption choice. To achieve this proximity, messages could be strategically placed at the point of sale, such as through collaborations with retailers in public campaigns. Additionally, the constant exposure to social media content through smartphones offers opportunities to time posts according to peak shopping hours. However, the medium-term effects indicate the need for different strategies adjusted to different time frames. Information-only campaigns may ultimately be more or –at least – not less effective in the medium term.

Besides timing, our findings suggest that posts or campaigns do not need to focus on a specific certification. Our video highlighted social and environmental issues associated with cocoa production without specifically mentioning any certifications that address these problems. Therefore, various actors from the public and private sector can jointly create campaigns to raise awareness about the negative externalities of consumption among the population.

Speaker: Dr Sarah Iweala (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Göttingen)

47 Insights into Front-of-Package Labeling (FOPL) Efficacy and Consumer Behavior: A Multifaceted Examination Using Eye-Tracking Technology

Introduction:
The global rise in diet-related diseases poses a significant public health challenge, necessitating effective interventions to promote healthier food choices. Behavioral nudges, such as Front-of-Package Labeling (FOPL) schemes have emerged as a prominent example of such interventions, aiming to capture consumers’ attention and to inform them about main aspects of nutritional content of food products at the point of purchase.

Despite the widespread adoption of FOPLs, questions remain regarding their impact on consumer behavior and the mechanisms underlying their efficacy. Eye-tracking technology presents a valuable methodological tool for elucidating these dynamics, both in field studies within real-world environments and in lab-based experiments.

This talk integrates findings from three distinct studies in which we utilized eye-tracking technology to address these questions and advance our understanding of FOPL effectiveness and influence on consumer decision-making processes. The first study examined the effect of implementing a voluntary positive FOPL scheme on consumers’ attention in an open-air market. The second study examined consumers’ attention to warning FOPLs in a supermarket, and the third study compared the impact of warning and Nutriscore FOPLs on attention, product health perception, and purchase intention in a binational controlled laboratory experiment.

Through a combination of field studies and empirical lab-based randomized controlled experiments, we observed and quantified participants' visual attention patterns and cognitive responses to FOPLs. This method allows the objective assessment of both the immediate effects of FOPLs on consumer choices and the underlying psychological mechanisms driving these responses.

Methods:
Eye-tracking technology offers a novel approach to investigate the utilization of FOPLs by consumers and to elucidate the mechanisms through which these labels influence decision-making. The technology allows non-invasive physiological measurement of individuals' attention to salient visual information, including precise measurement of the location of their gaze and the number and duration of visual fixations, all while deciding which food products to purchase, in natural or experimental settings. The objective data can then be compared with self-reported data, providing insight into potential biases associated with survey studies.

In the first study, shoppers in an open-air market (N=27) conducted their regular shopping trip while wearing wireless eye-tracking glasses. The main variable of interest was their visual attention to the positive label that was voluntarily placed by some of the vendors. Upon completion of their shopping trip, participants filled a short demographic survey. In the second study, consumers of a supermarket (N=60) were instructed to choose products to buy in four aisles: Cereals, health-bars, tahini and soft drinks, wearing eye-tracking glasses. After finishing the shopping task, participants filled a questionnaire regarding their attitudes, cognition(memory) and choices. The third study was conducted following the implementation of warning FOPLs in Israel and Nutriscore in Germany. We conducted an experiment where participants from both countries (N=221) assessed mocked products labelled by warning and Nutriscore labels, while their gaze was tracked by the eyetracking machine.

Results:
The synthesis of findings from the three studies reveals nuanced insights into the effectiveness of FOPLs and their influence on consumer behavior. In the first study, conducted in an open market, despite the implementation of a voluntary positive FOPL scheme, the majority of shoppers demonstrated minimal attention to the labels, suggesting limited impact of the FOPL on their decision-making. The second study, conducted in a supermarket, highlighted a substantial disparity between actual visual attention to FOPLs and self-reported perceptions, underscoring the necessity for objective evaluations of FOPL effectiveness. The third study, a binational experiment spanning Germany and Israel, found that warning labels may outperform summary scores (Nutriscore FOPL) in enhancing consumer awareness of nutritional quality and promoting healthier choices.

Conclusions:
This synthesis of our findings advances the understanding of FOPL effectiveness and consumer decision-making processes within the food environment. By leveraging eye-tracking technology, researchers can bridge the gap between subjective perceptions and objective behavior, shedding light on the mechanisms through which FOPLs influence consumer choices. These insights hold significant implications for policymakers seeking to optimize FOPL regulations and promote public health through informed dietary choices. Ultimately, this synthesis contributes to the ongoing efforts to improve the food environment and combat the global burden of diet-related diseases.

Speakers: Eyal Ert (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem), Prof. Aron Troen (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

48 How can advocates leverage power to advance comprehensive regulation on ultra-processed foods? Learning from advocate experience in Argentina

Introduction. The use of corporate power to undermine public health policy processes is increasingly well understood; however, relatively little scholarship examines how advocates can leverage power to promote successful health policy decisions. The objective of this paper is to explore how advocates leveraged three forms of power – structural, instrumental and discursive – to promote the successful passage of the Promotion of Healthy Eating Law (Ley 27,642) in Argentina, one of the most comprehensive policies to introduce mandatory front-of-package (FOP) warning labels and regulate the marketing and sales of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) adopted to date.

Methods. We conducted seventeen semi-structured interviews with advocates from different sectors, including civil society, international agencies, and government. Both data collection and analysis were guided by Milsom’s conceptual framework for analyzing power in public health policymaking, and the data was analyzed using hybrid deductive and inductive thematic analysis.

Results. Advocates harnessed structural power through informal networks and formal coalitions, enabling them to convene discussion spaces with decision-makers, make strategic use of limited resources, and cultivate the diverse expertise (e.g., research, nutrition science, advocacy, law, political science, activism and communications) needed to support the law through different phases of the policy process. Advocates wielded instrumental power through amassing an armada of localized evidence to promote robust policy design, conducting targeted advocacy, and exposing conflicts of interest to harness public pressure. Adopting a rights-based discourse, including of children and adolescents and of consumers to transparent information, enabled advocates to foster a favorable perception of the law amongst both decision-makers and the public. Key contextual enablers of success include a political window of opportunity, the COVID-19 pandemic, securing of international funding for advocacy purposes, and the ability to learn from the regional precedent of similar policies.

Conclusions. Public health policymaking, particularly when encroaching upon corporate interests, is characterized by stark imbalances of power that hinder successful policy decisions. The strategies identified in the case of Argentina provide important insights as to how advocates might harness and exercise structural, instrumental, and discursive power to counter corporate influence and promote the successful adoption of comprehensive UPF regulation.

Key Words. Power analysis, Food governance, Ultra-processed foods (UPFs), Political economy of health

Speaker: Simone Wahnschafft (University of Goettingen)

Production and Labor

49 Adaptation to Humid Heat in Animal Agriculture: The Case of Israeli Dairy Farms

Key words: climate change; heat stress; milk yield; adaptation; cooling technology.
Introduction:
Climatic variability and change are posing serious threats to global food security (FAO, 2015). This has motivated a rapidly growing body of research examining how climate influences economic outcomes. This “climate-economy” literature uses panel methods and high-frequency variation in weather to estimate the causal effects of changes in climate on outcomes of interest, notably agricultural output. While methodological advancements and greater data have improved the understanding of how extreme weather affects economic production, knowledge gaps persist about under-studied sectors and the potential for adaptation.
The dairy sector is an important segment of the agricultural sectors of many countries, including Israel, and its importance is expected to increase as demand for fresh and processed dairy products continues to increase. Heat stress is one of the main threats on milk production. As overall temperatures and the incidence of extreme heat continue to increase, the dairy sector is likely to face increasing stress and milk production may suffer significant declines.
The daily resolution of milk production data, as opposed to the yearly resolution of crop data, provides a useful setting in which common assumptions made in the literature can receive closer scrutiny, and new insights potentially derived.

Objective:
The objective of this research is to estimate the contemporaneous and delayed impacts of humid heat on milk yield. In addition to contributing new evidence on the impacts of humid heat on milk production, our work makes methodological contributions to the literature. The existing empirical literature on the impacts of climate change on agriculture has addressed counts of extreme heat events, but not how these are spread across time, e.g., the potential of a non-linear cumulative effect during hot spells, or how they interact with high levels of humidity. In addition, we conduct novel estimations of the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and discuss how our estimates can be used to project the impact of climate change on milk production.

Method:
We use daily data on the milk production of 130,000 cows over 12 years in Israel. The data include the total daily amount of milk produced by each cow, as well as the start date of the given lactation cycle, the number of calvings - which is a reliable proxy for the cow’s age - and the number of milkings per day. We construct two separate weather datasets of hourly temperature and relative humidity at the location of each farm, for the full period 2009-2020. In 2020-21, we attempted to survey all dairy farms in Israel in order to collect information about their basic operational characteristics, and in particular, the type of cooling technologies, if any, that they use to deal with heat stress, when they had installed them, and why. We also asked about additional adaptation strategies.
Our primary empirical model relates milk production by a given cow i in a given day t to same-day heat stress in the farm, represented as a vector of weather attributes Hit:
yit ≡ log(milkit) = G(Hit) + X’itδ + αi + ωt + ϵit (1)
where X is a vector of cow time-varying attributes, αi are cow fixed effects, and ωt are time fixed effects.
As a proxy of heat strain, we choose the wet-bulb temperature (Twb). We conduct robustness tests in which we replace Twb with THI indices.
The distribution of H in the course of the day is represented by a single summary indicator Twbit, such as its mean, maximum or minimum value. The function G(·) remains completely flexible. We approximate it with the non-parametric form:
G(Twbit) = Σh βhI(Twbit = h) (2)
where I(·) are binary indicators of whether the summary Twb of that day falls within a certain interval of values of h, and the summation occurs over interval bins encompassing all such possible values. The parameters βh represent the impact on milk production of each bin of daily values of Twb. We also estimate a model which takes into account the full distribution of Twb in the day of observation, rather than a single value.
Our survey data provides us with information about when and in which farm various cooling technologies were installed. This allows us to estimate the impacts of these technologies on the response of milk yield to heat stress. Specifically, we estimate a regression:
yijt ≡ log(milkijt) = G0(Hjt) + Cjt × G1(Hjt) + X’itδ + αi + ωt + ϵijt (3)
where i is a cow index, j is a farm index, and the variable Cjt is a binary indicator of whether farm j had a cooling technology in place in date t. In this specification, G0(·) is the estimated response of milk to heat stress in the absence of any cooling systems, and G1(·) is the change in the response associated with having a cooling system installed. Note that the parameters of G1(·) cannot be causally interpreted, since variation in Cjt may be endogenous. Nevertheless, the observed correlations constitute a first step towards the assessment of the performance of these technologies.

Findings:
Humid heat exerts highly nonlinear negative effects reaching up to a 10% decrease in milk production on extreme days, and effects persist for up to 10 days after direct exposure. Moreover, the adoption of simple cooling technologies, shifts in birth timing or changes in feed practices may be able to reduce less than half of the impacts of extreme heat exposure.

Conclusion:
Given the technological advancement, long-standing exposure to heat, and climatic diversity of the Israeli dairy system, the results suggest that common adaptation strategies may hold limited potential to avert the impacts of climate change in this nutritionally and economically important sector. More research is needed to quantify the actual performance and cost effectiveness of a broader range of adaptation approaches.

Speaker: Prof. Ayal Kimhi (Hebrew University)

50 Talking about the Weather - Farm-Level Inefficiency and Climate Extremes

Keywords: Crop Farm Efficiency, FADN, Climate Extremes, Panel Data
JEL codes: Q12, Q54, D22

Introduction & Objective:

High land and farm productivity is key for a sustainable future under rising food demands, transitions towards circular economies, and limited natural resources, i.e. production factors. Effectively supporting and maintaining productivity requires accurate measures of sector, land, and farm productivity (Zelenyuk, 2023), for instance, as a base for identifying potential threats to productivity. Typical measures for productivity rely on its relative form, productive efficiency, i.e., the difference between actual and potential output. Under climate change, altered agro-climatic conditions and more frequent climate extremes (IPCC, 2022) lower the potential output and increase production risks, challenging productivity levels and their measurement (Boix-Fayos and Vente, 2023). For instance, farms may experience yield losses due to waterlogging (Chambers and Pieralli, 2020) or extreme drought events (Schmitt et al., 2022). This would be observed as productive inefficiency clearly attributable to climate extremes but not to management in the short run (Chambers and Pieralli, 2020).

The farm efficiency literature rarely explicitly accounts for climate extremes and agro-climatic conditions while measuring managerial-induced inefficiencies (Silva et al., 2020; Quiédeville et al., 2022). Not clearly disentangling inefficiencies by source, such as weather- and farm management-related, bears the risk of biased inefficiency measures and inflating policies incentivizing adaptation to climate change. We aim to close this gap by investigating the extent of managerial and weather-related farm-level inefficiencies' contribution to overall farm-level inefficiency. We answer this question for a sample of German specialized crop farms for 2004-2020. By this quantification, we expect to contribute to farm efficiency and productivity analysis and climate change economics literature.

Methodology:

To address our research question, we build our analysis on the four-component stochastic frontier model by Lien, Kumbhakar and Alem (2018). This allows us to quantify farm inefficiency and disentangling by managerial and weather-induced inefficiency while accounting for farm heterogeneity and technological progress.

We utilize an unbalanced panel of German crop farms from the E.U.'s Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) covering 2004 to 2020. To answer to what extent managerial and weather-related inefficiencies contribute to overall farm inefficiency, we model persistent and transient inefficiency over time. Transient inefficiency is modelled as a function of inefficiency determinants not under the control of the farm, i.e. weather realizations, including climate extremes and policy effects, for instance, from E.U.'s Common Agricultural Policy (Minviel and Latruffe, 2017). A farm's persistent and residual transient inefficiency is then attributed to managerial inefficiency.

To assign weather realizations to FADN farms' observations, we have computed probabilistic farm locations at NUTS-3 (Hartig, Seifert and Hüttel, 2023). We assign agro-climatic information (e.g., long-run precipitation, temperature, drought risk measures) and seasonal weather realizations (e.g. seasonal precipitation, evapotranspiration) provided by the German National Meteorological Service. Due to the abundancy of weather information, we reduce the complete set of available agro-climatic and weather variables. We build upon Li and Ortiz‐Bobea (2022) and consider machine-learning approaches for model selection (Cui et al., 2024). Our next steps include the identification of climate extremes relevant to German crop farms. We will consider, among others, plant-specific killing degree days, droughts, and waterlogging (Schmitt et al., 2022) for differrent seasons.

Results:

We expect lower estimates of managerial inefficiency than prior findings due to the captured productivity losses attributable to climate extremes (Wimmer et al., 2023). We further plan to highlight the importance of climate extremes in agricultural production by calculating farm losses from crop farming due to climate extremes. Using a monetary output variable allows us to calculate farm losses and compare the results to existing estimates (Schmitt et al., 2022).

In our preliminary model specification, we rely on a single-output translog specification. We use total crop output in Euros at 2015 prices as our output variable. We include labour, land, capital, and materials as production inputs measured by total labour hours, total land in hectares, and farm capital and fertilizer cost in Euros (Addo and Salhofer, 2022; Wimmer et al., 2023).

The first results indicate the highest mean elasticity for land (0.544), whereas elasticities with respect to capital, labour, and materials range between 0.1 and 0.2. Estimates suggest very small technical progress of 0.1% on average in all years. We find an overall technical efficiency of 75.2%, comprising both persistent technical efficiency (84.8%) and transient technical efficiency (88.3%).

We note that these are preliminary results. In the next steps, we will investigate the extent of managerial and weather-related farm-level inefficiencies' contribution to overall farm-level inefficiency.

Discussion & Conclusion:

With this paper, we expect to discuss to what extent managerial and weather-related inefficiencies contribute to crop farm inefficiency. We aim to provide reliable quantifications of managerial farm-level inefficiencies for German crop farms. Such reliable inefficiency quantifications and their unbiased attribution to management and climate extremes may support targeted, evidence-based policy for sustaining productivity in the agri-food sector under climate change with more frequent climate extremes. Contrary to the existing literature, we anticipate finding lower levels of managerial inefficiency and higher levels of weather-related inefficiency. Policymakers may, therefore, increase the efforts within the E.U.'s Common Agricultural Policy to support farm-level climate change adaptation and mitigation (Pe'er and Lakner, 2020).

As with any empirical study, our results will be limited due to data availability and the FADN sample. Farms included in the FADN are selected based on a sampling plan aiming to represent a region's population with respect to the type of farming, economic size, and region (Kempen et al., 2011). Selecting farms above a minimum size threshold might lead to an underrepresentation of agricultural activity in some areas. Also, voluntary participation may add to potential sample selection issues, limiting statistical inference. The single-output specification is another limitation (Lien, Kumbhakar and Alem, 2018). We consider an extension to a multi-output setting (Badunenko et al., 2021) and include mixed and livestock farms with branch-specific inefficiencies.

References

Please refer to the comments.

Speaker: Moritz Hartig (University of Göttingen)

51 Availability of Household Labour: a key determinant of sustainable agricultural practices use

Keywords: household labour, labour requirements, adoption of sustainable practices
Introduction and Objective
In many developing countries, smallholder farmers rely heavily on family labour for agricultural activities. Depending on the cropping systems, tasks can include land preparation, planting, weeding, harvesting, and post-harvest processing. Therefore, the availability of household labour can influence decision-making on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices that are often associated with higher labour demand (Dahlin and Rusinamhodzi, 2019). For instance, practices such as agroforestry or conservation agriculture may require more labour inputs compared to conventional methods that rely on high input use (Daum et al., 2023, Gallardo and Sauer, 2018). At the same time, there is an increasing call for a sustainable and agro-ecological transition of agriculture to limit biodiversity loss and climate change (Daum et al., 2023; Zabel et al., 2019). However, farmers with limited labour resources may face challenges in implementing such practices effectively.
Methods
To put this hypothesis to the test, we use two waves of a farm household survey of 365 cocoa producers in Ghana, collected in 2019 and 2022. A multi-stage sampling strategy was employed to develop the dataset. First, regions were purposefully chosen in cocoa growing areas of Ghana in which villages were then randomly selected from existing population census data. A comprehensive list of all cocoa farmers was compiled in the identified enumeration areas, from which cocoa farmers were then randomly selected for interviews.
We will apply a random effects model to assess whether the household dependency ratio (the ratio of working age adults to non-working age household members) is a determining factor for the use of sustainable agricultural practices. In the case of cocoa, we focus on three main agricultural practices that are often considered yield enhancing but are labour intensive: manual weeding, sanitary harvesting and organic fertilizer application. In the model, we include control variables at the individual, household and village level to account for other influencing factors on adoption decisions, such as participation in trainings or market access.
Expected findings
We expect households with a high dependency ratio to utilize less labour intense agricultural practices. Restrictions of manpower, time and the physical burden of labour influence the decision-making on practices employed in agricultural production (Moser and Barrett, 2006). Contrasting, we expect households with low dependency ratio and therefore a higher household labour availability to employ more labour intense practices. The panel structure of the data allows us to assess dynamic changes in the household composition in terms of the number of household members and their age patterns, and their effects practices application.
To address labour shortages of working-age adults, households employ different coping strategies, ranging from the use of household child labour, to informal labour exchange to paid casual or temporary labour (White et al., 2005). However, available paid workers in rural areas may be limited in Ghana. Some evidence suggests that labour demand in cocoa has increased more rapidly than the population growth rate (Abenyega and Gockowski, 2003). In recent years, trends such as rural-urban migration, the rise in non-agricultural work opportunities and increasing demand for child schooling has contributed to the labour scarcity particularly in rural areas (Dzanku and Tsikata, 2022).
We therefore aim to include measures of non-household labour availability in our analysis to assess the possibility of compensating for low numbers of household workers. We take into account the extent of off-farm work opportunities and migration patterns. With fewer casual or temporary workers available for potentially unattractive and burdensome agricultural activities, wages may increase to a point where employing help becomes unattainable for low-income producers.
This paper analyses the limitations of low labour availability in applying sustainable but labour-intensive agricultural practices. Calls for sustainable or agro ecological transitions of African agriculture should not rely on potentially outdated assumptions of labour availability in Sub-Saharan African agriculture. Instead, recommendations for sustainable practices should balance the goals of enhancing farm productivity and sustainability while taking into account labour-saving technologies to become feasible adoption decisions.

References

Abenyega, O. and Gockowski, J. (2003) Labor practices in the cocoa sector of Ghana with a special focus on the role of children. STCP/ IITA Monograph IITA, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Dahlin, A.S. and Rusinamhodzi, L. (2019) Yield and labour relations of sustainable intensification options for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. A metaanalysis. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 39 (32), 1–18.

Daum, T., Baudron, F., Birner, R., Qaim, M. and Grass, I. (2023) Addressing agricultural labour issues is key to biodiversity-smart farming. Biological Conservation, 284, 110165.

Dzanku and Tsikata (2022) Implications of socioeconomic change for agrarian land and labour relations in rural Ghana. Journal of Rural Studies, 94, 385-398.

Gallardo, R.K. and Sauer, J. (2018) Adoption of labour-saving technologies in agriculture.
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Moser, C.M. and Barrett, C.B. (2006) The complex dynamics of smallholder technology adoption: the case of SRI in Madagascar. Agricultural Economics, 35 (3), 373–388.

Zabel, F., Delzeit, R., Schneider, J.M., Seppelt, R., Mauser, W. and V´aclavík, T. (2019) Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity. Nature Communications, 10 (1), 1–10.

Speaker: Katharina Krumbiegel (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission)

52 Farm size and the quality and quantity of jobs—Insights from Nigeria

Keywords: Farm workers, Rural employment, Decent work, Employment quality and quantity, Sub-Saharan Africa, Horticulture.

Introduction

The role of farm size in promoting poverty reduction and economic growth remains a contentious debate in agricultural and development economics as well as in the general public (Dercon & Gollin, 2014; Staatz & Dembele, 2007; Wiggins et al., 2010). So far, empirical evidence informing this long-standing debate has focused on the relationship between farm size and productivity (Barrett, 1996; Rada & Fuglie, 2019) and farm size and environmental performance (Ren et al., 2019; Wuepper et al., 2020). Employment has been largely overlooked in this literature and debate, although many lower-income regions experience both massive unemployment challenges and changes in farm sizes. In Sub-Saharan African countries, farm sizes are often decreasing (Lowder et al., 2021), while, at the same time, medium-sized farms and large-scale land acquisitions are proliferating (Anseeuw et al., 2016; Jayne et al., 2022). The agricultural sector provides many but not sufficient jobs for the growing population, and working conditions are often precarious (Christiaensen et al., 2021; Christiaensen & Maertens, 2022). Whether and how the sector can offer more and better jobs is an emerging question that receives increasing attention among policymakers and researchers (Nattrass & Seekings, 2018), while the role of farm size has hardly received attention (Muyanga & Jayne, 2019).

Here, we address this gap by offering novel evidence on links between farm size and employment. We analyze whether farm size matters for the quantity and quality (working conditions and decency) of jobs and whether a trade-off exists between the two, which has never been studied before. Further, we explore why small and larger farms might differ in terms of the quality and quantity of jobs offered, considering distinguishing factors like technology use, market access, and crop specialization. We focus on local rather than global supply chains, which have received little attention in the agri-food labor literature (Maertens, 2019; Meemken et al., 2019). Our leading hypothesis is that there is a trade-off between job quality and quantity, with smaller farms offering more jobs (per ha) and larger farms providing better jobs.

Data and methods

We focus on a uniquely suited case study, Nigera’s growing tomato sector, known for its labor-intensive nature. We use primary data from a matched farm-to-worker survey, which is the exception in this literature. Job quantity is measured in terms of the number of workers hired and labor days per hectare (ha) cultivated. With regard to job quality, we consider wage (Naira/hour) and non-wage dimensions of jobs. The primary explanatory variable of interest in this study is farm size, measured as the total area of land cultivated (ha) as reported by the farmers. In the analysis, we employ multivariate ordinary least squares regression analysis to assess the association between farm size and job quality and quantity. Consequently, our results are not causal, just as the vast majority of papers on the relationship between farm size and productivity, as farm sizes are hard to randomize. Nevertheless, our results document novel interlinkages between farm size and employment.

Results and discussion

We find that farm size matters for job quality and quantity. Smaller farms are associated with offering more jobs, while larger farms offer better jobs. There is generally a trade-off between job quality (especially wages) and quantity, also beyond farm size. We find that offering more jobs is associated with farms offering lower wages. This implies that farms make a trade-off between providing more jobs and offering higher wages. Our findings align with our hypotheses and with some of the mixed and limited previous empirical evidence (e.g., Ehlert et al., 2014). Further analysis suggests that technology use and level of crop specialization explain a modest share of the inverse farm size-job quantity relationship.

Our results highlight that Nigeria’s tomato sector provides important rural job opportunities. However, they often do not meet several decent work criteria, which is a challenge globally in agri-food systems (Ehlert et al., 2014; Fabry et al., 2022). Employment is primarily generated for seasonal workers, who are mostly migrants, possibly benefitting households and communities in migrant-sending regions (Mckenzie, 2022; Yang, 2008). Relatedly, almost all migrant workers are men. Thus, context matters for the composition of workers, as other studies find that the horticultural sectors, e.g., Senegal and Peru, hire many local women (Maertens & Swinnen, 2012).

Conclusion

The creation of decent employment in agri-food systems is crucial for economic development (Christiaensen et al., 2021). Although farm sizes are changing globally, the role of farm size for the quality and quantity of employment has hardly received attention, despite the generally increasing interest in the role of farm sizes for economic development. We contribute to scientific and public debates on the role of farm size for rural economic growth by investigating the association between farm size and job quantity and quality, as well as the trade-offs thereof. We use unique matched (farm-to-worker) survey data from Nigeria’s tomato sector, focusing only on farms that hire workers, the vast majority of whom are lower-skilled. Our results suggest that farm size is inversely associated with job quantity, meaning smaller farms offer more jobs per cultivated land area (ha). In contrast, farm size is positively associated with job quality, although job quality is generally precarious, irrespective of farm size.

As discussed above, our results are not causal, just as the vast majority of the farm size-productivity literature. This problem is challenging to solve as both farm sizes and employment are difficult to randomize. Panel data would only present progress in this regard if farm sizes are expected to change. Future research could pursue such approaches, e.g., collecting panel data or leveraging planned land reforms. Beyond causality, future research could also explore why so few local workers, particularly women, are willing to accept farm jobs. All in all, our findings highlight an important, but often under-appreciated fact in the farm size debate: Neither small nor large farms deliver on all aspects of sustainable development. Trade-offs exist.

Speaker: Olayinka Aremu (ETH Zürich)

Urbanization and Income Constraints to Food

53 Exploring the Impact of Urbanisation on Dietary Patterns in Tanzania

Keywords
Nutrition transition, Urbanisation, Tanzania, Food environment

Introduction
The proposed study aims to analyse the effect of the degree of urbanisation on households’ diets in Tanzania. A healthy diet forms the cornerstone of human development, as sufficient and adequate nutritional intake throughout life is a crucial determinant of an individual's health and productivity, as well as that of the next generation (Blakstad et al., 2022; Slawson et al., 2013; Swinburn et al., 2019). Globally, changes in lifestyle and increased availability of energy-dense foods have led to a change in diets and food-related behaviour, also called the nutrition transition (Popkin, 2015; Popkin & Ng, 2021; Steyn & Mchiza, 2014). Reflective of this is the simultaneous growth of urban spaces and the rate of obesity and overweight in Tanzania (Keding, 2016; Tanzania et al., 2019), where sub-populations struggle with underweight, overweight, and micronutrient deficiencies; the triple burden of malnutrition (Keding, 2016; Popkin, 2015).
Higher incomes have not consistently led to more diversified diets and better nutrition, in part, due to nutritious foods become more expensive in Tanzania (Ignowski et al., 2023). As a result, in urban areas, 9% of the total budget share is now spent on ultra-processed foods, with sugar-sweetened beverages, bread, and other products among the most popular products(Sauer et al., 2021). Processed and ultra-processed foods (UPF) have become commonplace among urban and rural populations (Cockx et al., 2018), irrespective of class (Sauer et al., 2021). Besides increased access to processed and ultra-processed foods, urbanisation brings other lifestyle changes that can affect a person’s overall health and weight. The transition out of agriculture and manual labour (Cockx et al., 2018), longer commutes, employment outside of the home, both the outside food environment as well as the home environment (such as less storage space), promote the consumption of processed food (Holdsworth & Landais, 2019; Miranda et al., 2019). This increased consumption of UPFs, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) often comes at the cost of consumers, by contributing to overweight, obesity, and diabetes, which can further lead to cardio-vascular and other non-communicable diseases (Alcaraz et al., 2021; Pagliai et al., 2021; Pietrantoni & Mayrovitz, 2022; Vitale et al., 2024).
While research has shown that there is an effects of urbanisation and the food environment on individual’s diet, it is not yet clear how varying degrees of urbanisation and the immediate food environment affects a household’s food consumption, in Tanzania (Ameye, 2023).

Objective and Research Questions
As urbanisation is often listed as a critical determinant of SSBs and UPF consumption (Dicken et al., 2023; Mazarello Paes et al., 2015), this study aims to comprehensively investigate the impact of the degree of urbanisation on dietary consumption patterns in Tanzania.

The research questions of the proposed research are:
- How does the relationship between the urbanisation and a household’s consumption of sugar, SSBs, and processed foods differ across varying degrees of urbanisation and time?
- How does the density of supermarkets surrounding a household affect consumption of sugar, SSBs, and UPFs?
- (How) do household characteristics, such as income, education of the household head, work outside of the home and food consumed from own production mediate the effects of urbanisation and supermarket density, on the consumption of sugar, SSB, and UPF?

Methods
This study aims to integrate longitudinal data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey with Global Human Settlement (GHS) data obtained from OpenStreetMap. Specifically, we aim to examine the impacts of urbanisation, represented by changes in population density, and shifts in the food environment, indicated by changes in supermarket density, on food consumption patterns. Through mediation analysis, we seek to show the underlying household-level mechanisms through which urbanisation and alterations in the food environment influence dietary habits.

Expected Results
Ameye (2023) and Cockx et al. (2018) have shown, that urbanisation in itself has an impact on sugar and processed food consumption. Therefore, we can likely assume an overall increase in sugar, SSB and UPF over time, but the relationship with the degree of urbanisation immediately around the household remains unclear. The effect of supermarkets can also be inconsistent, as the product range offered in the supermarket can differ, depending on the income of the neighbourhood (Holdsworth & Landais, 2019). While potentially offering higher food diversity, they also often are the main retailers of UPFs and have been shown to correlate positively with higher BMIs in Kenya (Holdsworth & Landais, 2019).
Previous research has shown that lower consumption of ultra-processed foods is not consistently associated with higher education or income (Dicken et al., 2023). Similarly, SSB consumption is inconsistently associated with income (Barrett et al., 2017; Han & Powell, 2013; Schneider et al., 2021). It is likely that increased income and education are not (like in HICs) negatively (Han & Powell, 2013) but positively associated with increased consumption of SSB and UFPS products (Marrón-Ponce et al., 2018), as these might represent a lifestyle products that are only accessible to those with higher incomes, making it more popular among them.

Relevance of Results
The findings of this study hold significant implications for public health policy and urban planning in Tanzania. The results may showcase that certain areas and household characteristics have significant impact on peoples’ diets, which can then be further explored in more detail.

Speaker: Shinuna Gärtner (Technical University Munich)

54 Migration and Nutrition of the Left-Behind Individuals: Evidence from Ghana

Keywords. Migration, Nutrition, Left-behind, Ghana.

Introduction. Migration is a phenomenon that affects those who migrate, the communities they move to, and those who stay behind. The individuals who remain in the household of origin after one of their members emigrates are often referred to as left-behind individuals. In recent decades, there has been substantial interest in the implications of migration on the health and nutrition of left-behind individuals, with findings showing mixed results (see, for instance, Gibson et al. (2011); Carletto et al. (2011); De Brauw (2011); Böhme et al. (2015); De Brauw and Mu (2015)). While the primary motivation for migration often revolves around better income prospects (Kennan and Walker, 2011), it also serves as a strategy to diversify risks and elevate household welfare (Stark and Bloom, 1985). It is also undertaken to improve the overall living conditions of the household through income and to finance consumption, mainly through remittances (Stark and Lucas, 1988). The anticipated outcome is that migration should enhance the nutrition of left-behind individuals, especially with the additional income and remittances that positively impact the quality and quantity of food consumed (De Brauw and Mu, 2011). However, migration’s disruptive nature can also usher in adverse effects. For instance, the absence of a primary caregiver can lead to children experiencing poorer dietary habits (Démurger, 2015). This open-ended issue is also observed in the literature. Indeed, despite the extensive studies, there has been no definitive evidence on the direction of the impact of migration on the nutrition of left-behind individuals.

Objective and Contributions. This paper aims to identify the impact of internal migration on the nutritional status of adults and children left behind. In brief, I seek to answer the following questions: (1) Does migration have negative or positive effects on the nutrition of the individuals left behind? (2) Can these effects differ by age, gender, or nutritional status? (3) What are the transmission channels and the mechanisms involved?
This paper contributes to the existing literature on migration's effects on left-behind individuals' nutrition in four ways. First, it aims to clarify the mixed results in previous studies by focusing on the mechanisms and timing of migration's impacts. Specifically, it examines the role of remittances and other transmission channels, suggesting that migration's effects may vary over time, with initial negative impacts potentially offset by positive long-term effects through remittances. Second, unlike studies that only consider adults or children, this research encompasses the entire household and differentiates effects by gender and nutritional status, thereby offering a comprehensive view on migration's nutrition impacts across all household members. Third, this study leverages panel data to address selection bias more effectively than prior research relying on cross-sectional data, including a novel examination of intra-household selection bias to ensure robustness in comparing migrants and non-migrants. Finally, this issue has not been extensively studied in sub-Saharan Africa and even less so in Ghana, as many focus on Asia or Latin America.

Method. Studying the effect of migration on the outcomes of left-behind individuals is a complex issue fraught with multiple threats. Foremost, migration decisions are non-random, introducing concerns related to reverse causality and selection bias. This selection can manifest both inter-household, relating to the household’s choice to send a migrant, and intra-household, determining which household member migrates. Other threats include endogeneity, which can result from reverse causality. For example, deteriorating health conditions within a household can act as a migration catalyst rather than migration influencing the health of the left behind. Given these potential issues that can emerge, it is difficult to find reliable results. To address these challenges, I adopt an approach using panel data. I utilize two survey waves of the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey spanning 2013/2014 to 2017/2018. I employ a combination of kernel matching and difference-in-differences to establish two comparable groups: individuals who are left behind and those who are not. This approach enables me to address selection bias comprehensively. Matching helps control for selection bias related to observable factors, while the DID model allows me to account for this bias concerning unobservable factors. This empirical strategy significantly enhances the robustness of my findings, setting them apart from much of the existing literature.

Findings and Conclusion. Utilizing the context of Ghana, I find that an individual’s internal migration adversely affects the nutritional status of those left behind. Adults experience a decline in body weight and children a decrease in their BMI-for-age z-score. By deepening the channels and studying the simultaneous effect of sending a migrant between the two survey waves and receiving remittances, I do not identify a positive impact of receiving remittances that could offset the decline in adults’ weight. However, it appears that the most vulnerable children suffer less when households, besides having a migrant member, also receive remittances. Moreover, solely receiving remittances, probably from migrants absent for a longer duration, tends to have a favorable long-term impact on children’s nutrition.
Nevertheless, the primary channel explaining the findings is the disruptive effect of migration. Essentially, I am most likely capturing the short-term effect, i.e., the impact of the onset of migration. The migration process entails significant costs, not only in financing the migrant’s journey but also in terms of the loss of their contribution to household income. In the context of Ghana, migrants are predominantly internal migrants within the country. Therefore, the financial burden on the household of origin is generally lower compared to international migration, and it is likely that the negative impact stems primarily from the loss of the migrant’s previous economic contribution to their household. Consequently, the departure of the migrant might result in a negative income shock. This adverse income shock, while having a somewhat moderate effect on adults’ weight, has a profoundly detrimental impact on children’s nutritional status. Furthermore, even though I find a positive long-term impact of remittances on children, this short-term negative effect could cast a long-lasting shadow, affecting the enduring nutritional health and growth of children who are less resilient compared to adults.

Speaker: Adrien Gosselin-Pali (Université Clermont Auvergne, CERDI)

55 Healthy diet based poverty lines

Access to a healthy diet is a fundamental human right, yet a significant portion of the global population faces barriers to realizing this right. Conventional poverty metrics are designed to adequately capture caloric needs but they are inadequate for capturing other essential nutritional requirements. We propose national poverty lines based on the cost of a healthy diet and explore their key metrics such as headcount ratios and the poverty gap. According to these poverty lines 2,840 million people were poor in 2019 and US$ 2,293 billion per year would be needed to lift them out of poverty. This is in contrast to 648 million people who are considered to live in extreme poverty according to the World Bank’s conventional poverty lines. In this paper, we propose a measure of poverty that is grounded in the economic costs of maintaining a healthy diet. Healthy diets are and always have been a basic need and current poverty measures based on caloric sufficiency do not meet this need. As the world moves closer to eliminating extreme poverty, the traditional threshold of US$ 2.15 will become increasingly socially irrelevant in many parts of the world. An expansion to affordability of healthy diets enables individuals to sustain long-term health. Our approach offers a dynamic and adaptable internationally consistent way of assessing poverty, distinct from conventional approaches that often rely on subjective country-specific judgments. We introduce these thresholds as absolute poverty lines in nations with lower incomes, while they encompass a relative dimension in wealthier countries. This leads to a denser distribution of poverty lines compared to current national poverty lines, wherein lower-income countries have higher poverty thresholds while higher-income countries have lower.

The affordability of adequate, let alone healthy, diets is a distant reality for many people worldwide. This new measurement of poverty indicates that 2.9 billion people were living in poverty in 2021 indicating a poverty rate of 39 percent. More than one out of three people globally were not able to afford healthy diets and other essential goods. To overcome this gap, individuals are lacking about US$ 2.4 trillion annually. Our findings underscore significant global differences in the affordability of nutritious diets. Particularly in the Global South, people face considerable financial barriers to achieving recommended nutrient intake, thereby impeding their ability to sustain long-term health and well-being. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are in particular need of support considering their high burden relative to their GDP. We need to transform food systems to provide equitable access to healthy and sustainable diets for everyone. The global income gap to afford a healthy diet is substantial but manageable. To provide perspective on this figure, the income gap in 2021 amounts to 1.2 to 2.2 percent of the world's total annual income or 0.8 to 1.6 percent of the combined wealth of all millionaires and billionaires worldwide, depending on the scenario. Despite the sizable global income gap to a healthy diet, it is important to also consider the costs that result from suboptimal diets through factors such as healthcare costs, reduced productivity, lower educational attainment, and increased mortality rates. For instance, the global cost of diabetes, to which unhealthy diets contribute, is estimated at US$ 1.3 trillion in 2015 and may increase to US$ 2.2 trillion by 2030. It is projected that the annual health costs associated with non-communicable diseases and diet-related mortality will amount to more than US$ 1.3 trillion by 2030 and US$ 2.2 trillion by 2050, excluding the adverse impacts of undernutrition. Economic losses attributable to undernutrition are estimated at US$ 3.5 trillion annually. The economic benefits of improving diets have been estimated at US$ 1 to 31 trillion which may substantially exceed the annual global price of a healthy diet. In conclusion, despite the substantial global income gap, the potential economic benefits resulting from ensuring affordable access to healthy diets may surpass it considerably. Consideration of cost avoidance is therefore imperative when making investments to enhance the universal affordability of a nutritious diet. A striking disparity emerges when we compare key metrics of our poverty lines with those based on the conventional US$ 2.15 IPL and national poverty lines. The number of individuals classified as poor increases by 4.5 and 2.5 times, respectively. The income gap surges by 17 and 4 times, respectively. This highlights that neither the conventional IPL nor national poverty lines adequately capture the extent to which people worldwide struggle to afford nutritious foods. It underscores the substantial obstacles that individuals continue to face in accessing nutritious diets, even if they are not classified as extremely poor by conventional standards. It becomes clear that the current poverty line falls short in addressing the economic accessibility of obtaining nutritious food to meet the dietary requirements for a healthy and active life.

We argue that the understanding of basic needs has developed with economic progress and the reduction in global hunger rates since the development of initial national poverty lines. Standard poverty lines fall short in considering the nutritional requirements essential for individuals to lead active and healthy lives, a pivotal element of food security, and therefore substantially underestimates those who cannot afford to live and active and healthy life. Access to healthy diets is a fundamental human right, and sufficient calorie intake alone leads to poor health in the long run. Poverty lines need to be expanded to encompass economic access to healthy diets to ensure sustainable long-term health.

Speaker: Jonas Stehl (University of Goettingen)

16:30 Coffee break

Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics in Food Systems

17:00 Open Display

56 Signaling Impacts of Food Safety Label on Fresh Produce Demand

In an era where foodborne illnesses have escalated into a global concern, particularly within the fresh produce sector, the demand for transparent and reliable food safety information has surged among consumers. Technological advancements in agriculture and food production have significantly increased food availability, yet these developments have also amplified concerns regarding food safety standards and testing. The growing incidences of foodborne illness outbreaks have not only alarmed the public but have also catalyzed advocacy for mandatory food safety labeling. This collective unease underscores a societal quest for assurances that food products are rigorously tested for pathogens.

Motivated by these developments, our study probes the signaling effects of food safety labels on consumer demand and willingness to pay (WTP) for fresh produce. To navigate the intricate landscape of consumer perceptions and behaviors towards food safety labeling, we embarked on an in-depth investigation employing a sophisticated experimental design. Utilizing an online survey platform, Qualtrics, participants were presented with images of fresh produce marked with different labeling treatments: a control group with no label, a "Food safety label" that featured only a visual marker without text, and a "Food safety label with text" detailing tests for pathogens such as Salmonella and E. coli. This experiment focused on lettuce, peaches, mushrooms, and onions—selected based on their vulnerability to these pathogens—to discern consumer preferences and the influence of labeling on their purchasing decisions.

The findings from our study reveal a pronounced preference for food safety labels devoid of textual information, indicating that visual cues significantly sway consumer WTP. Moreover, the research highlights a differentiated impact of labels on various types of produce, with lettuce and peaches—items typically consumed raw and perceived as more perishable—eliciting a higher WTP compared to mushrooms and onions. This distinction underscores the pivotal role that perceived freshness and susceptibility to contamination play in shaping consumer attitudes towards food safety labels.

By elucidating the nuances of consumer responses to food safety labeling, our study makes a significant contribution to the broader discourse on food safety and public health. It offers valuable insights into the efficacy of visual versus textual labels in communicating food safety information and how these labels influence consumer demand across different produce types. The findings hold profound implications for stakeholders in the food supply chain, suggesting that targeted, visually engaging food safety labels can effectively address consumer concerns and enhance the marketability of fresh produce.

In light of these insights, we advocate for the development of consumer-friendly labeling strategies that prioritize clarity and visual appeal. Such strategies can empower consumers with the information they need to make informed choices, ultimately fostering a safer food environment. Policymakers and industry stakeholders can leverage these findings to tailor food safety labeling initiatives that resonate with consumer preferences and contribute to the reduction of foodborne illnesses.

Conclusively, this research underscores the critical role of food safety labels in enhancing consumer trust and facilitating informed purchasing decisions within the fresh produce sector. By providing a clearer understanding of how different labeling treatments impact consumer behavior, our study paves the way for more effective communication of food safety information, supporting public health goals and promoting a culture of transparency and accountability in the food supply chain.

Speaker: Minhao Yan

57 Could consumers environmental perceptions transform food systems in Europe?

Keywords: Sustainable food consumption, food supply chain, environmental perceptions, farm to fork strategy, European Green Deal

Introduction

In the run to become a leading carbon neural economy by 2050, the European Union acknowledges the role of sustainable food consumption (SFC) to achieve the goals proposed by the farm to fork strategy (F2F). Despite the political urge to achieve carbon neutrality in food operations, current food consumption still follows unsustainable patterns (Notarnicola et al., 2017), being related to increasing GHG emissions, water pollution and biodiversity loss. Making food consumption more sustainable by influencing consumers’ behavior is a valid way to mitigate climate change, and to promote sustainable growth and food security (Myers et al., 2013).
Consumers’ behavior might potentially reduce GHG emissions trends, by influencing household purchasing patterns and everyday consumption choices (Ivanova et al., 2020). When consumers choose what food to buy, they indirectly determine what food is produced and how. These facts reshape market forces by making companies rethink their environmental and social responsibility (De Carvalho et al., 2016). Nevertheless, SFC’s concept remains diffuse and it is unclear how consumers perceive sustainability and how to guide their food choices in a more environmentally-friendly direction (de Boer & Aiking, 2021). Thus, understanding food sustainability perceptions should provide meaningful guidance for policy interventions directed to achieve SFC.
In the one hand, food habits are very hard to change because they are influenced by socio-cultural preferences and marketing conditions, as well as by the environment where people live (Carrus et al., 2018). On the other hand, even if consumers perceive food sustainability as an important matter, their purchase attitudes may be inconsistent and not reflect on it (Vermeir & Verbeke, 2006). Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the extent to which consumers’ socioeconomic characteristics and environmental perceptions could contribute to sustainable behavior when consuming food products in Europe. The findings will permit to draw strategies directed to support the transformation of food systems and pave the way towards decarbonization in Europe.

Methods

The dataset is obtained from the 93.2 Eurobarometer survey (GESIS, 2020), conducted in 2020, and from Moreira-Dantas et al. (2022). The survey was conducted in the 27 EU member states, where 27,237 civilians were asked about perceptions and attitudes to endorse overarching food sustainability aspects in the EU. From Moreira-Dantas et al. (2022) we use a range of cross-country systematically-collected consumer initiatives aiming at achieving sustainability in the FSC.
Consumers are categorized as a binary traffic-light variable according to their priorities when buying food: red consumers prioritize convenience, cost, and shelf-life availability; and green consumers think firstly about food origin, climate impacts, and food processing.
The methodology employ consists on estimating a probit model to assess socioeconomic and pro-environmental covariates factor responsiveness across the traffic-light consumer choices. Socioeconomic characteristics are interacted with pro-environmental ones to indicate what factors are more likely to influence consumers to become part of the green group. Consumers in this group show a more sustainable behavior when consuming food products.

Findings

Environmental perceptions vary according to the nature of the question addressed. While organic production seems to be similarly well-perceived by consumers of different social classes and education level, other aspects such as food labels, agricultural subsidies for sustainable practices, or trade standards show different perceptions by subgroups.
Individuals with higher levels of education, with high-skilled occupation, and those of higher age show a higher propensity to fall into the green-consumers category, thus considering the potential environmental impacts when buying food, and willing to spend more for food produced with sustainable and environmentally-friendly practices.
The presence of active cross-country consumer initiatives show a positive correlation to the probability of falling into the green category. A fact that supports the importance of collective consumers’ efforts from NGOs, and civil associations to promote sustainable food consumption.

Conclusions

This paper shows that the relative importance of socioeconomic and environmental explanatory factors differs by type of consumers and the economic status of respondents influences consumers’ priorities when buying food. Moreover, consumers initiatives aimed at spur food awareness seems to be a valid way to support the political priorities towards sustainable consumption in Europe.

Speaker: Ianna Moreira-Dantas (Univers)

58 Consumer preferences for alternative short supply chain attributes of local cultural products: the case of North Sea brown shrimp in Germany

Keywords: discrete choice experiment, regional economies, sustainability labels, geographical indication

Introduction: North Sea brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) fisheries dates back to the 17th century, and today North Sea brown shrimp fishing is the most important coastal fishery on the German and Dutch North Sea coasts. Brown shrimp fishing is also an important factor for tourism and the preservation of maritime traditions in coastal regions of the North Sea. Due to labour constraints, such as cost and shortages, the majority of caught North Sea brown shrimp is transported via wholesalers to Morocco for peeling. In Germany, stakeholders, such as restauranters and consumers, are critical of the extensive transport associated with the processing of brown shrimp and there is growing interest for products with shorter supply chains. The majority of German consumers prefer locally produced seafood and are willing to pay more for locally-produced as well as ecologically-sustainable seafood. To meet these demands, research is focused on by-passing labour constraints through innovative technology – shrimp peeling machine using ultrasound wavelengths – and understanding alternative distribution and marketing strategies.

Research Objective: estimate German consumer preferences for marketing strategies of alternatively-peeled North Sea brown shrimp

Methodology: Consumer preferences across four product attributes (price, peeling-type, peeling-region, sustainability label) were estimated using a hypothetical discrete choice experiment, which was a part of a larger online consumer survey in Germany distributed by a commercial panel provider.Peeling-type was labelled as either "hand-peeled", "maschine-peeled", or just "peeled." Peeling regions were listed as either Germany, Poland, Morocco, or no region was listed. Sustainability label levels included: no label, “Marine Stewardship Council” (MSC), “protected geographical indication” (PGI), National Park Wadden Sea, or “protected designation of origin” (PDO). Respondents (n=2343) were shown pictures of three North Sea brown shrimp packages; a fourth option “no buy” option was included. One package was a status quo product with lowest price (3.99€ / 100g) and no indication of peeling-type, peeling-region, or sustainability label as can be found on the current market. The other two packages alternated the attribute levels based on a multinominal logit d-efficient design using prior estimates from a pre-test. In total, respondents were shown nine choice sets. Consumer preferences for all attribute levels comparative to the status quo attributes were modelled using Stata’s (StataCorp) “cmxtmixlogit” command for choice model panel-data, incorporating the “no buy” option as an alternative specific constant. Price was included as a fixed variable, and all other variables were considered random.

Results:
Overall, respondents chose to purchase of North Sea brown shrimp rather than opt out (“no buy”), as was indicated by the positive constant coefficients. In addition, respondents act according to utility theory, i.e. increasing prices lead to a reduction in utility, as was shown by the negative price coefficient. Unsurprisingly, respondents in Germany preferred packages labelled “peeled in Germany,” compared to packages where no peeling-region was listed. Other peeling-regions, including “peeled in Poland,” “peeled in Morocco,” and “peeled on-site” resulted in negative utility, i.e. were disliked, compared to products without indication of peeling-region. The dislike for “peeled on-site” is surprising, as one would think that on-site would denote freshness and increase transparency and trust in product processing. However, “peeled onsite” is not something that is currently used in brown shrimp marketing and may have been associated with negative aspects, such as decreased hygiene or additional workload for the end consumer of having to peel the product themselves.
“Hand-peeled” was neither preferred nor disliked compared to the neutral statement “peeled,” suggesting that the current synonymous use of both terms for available market products may be sufficient. Marking packages as “machine-peeled” provoked a strong negative preference, perhaps stemming from a perceived degradation of eating quality.
As is currently frequently used in brown shrimp marketing and therefore likely familiar, the MSC label resulted in positive utility gains compared to no label. Interestingly, the PGI label, signifying that a minimum of one production step took place in a given region, was preferred; whereas its stronger counterpart PDO, designating that the entire production process is completed in a given region, was disliked. The logo representing Wadden Sea National Park, where some fisheries are located as part of the regions heritage, also negatively influenced preferences.
According to the model results and corresponding willingness-to-pay (WTP), a product peeled in Germany bearing the MSC and PGI labels would meet consumer preferences, and consumers would be willing to pay an estimated 1.96€ more / 100g.

Conclusion:
More information on production qualities does not always lead to higher consumer preference. Innovative marketing claims, such as “on-site” and “machine-peeled” negatively influenced preference and therefore willingness to pay (WTP) for short supply chain products. Consumer preferences and understanding of PGI vs. PDO should be investigated prior to using these claims for marketing regional products within domestic markets.

Speaker: Brianne Andrea Altmann (University of Kassel & University of Goettingen)

59 Navigating the rise of A2 and desi milk in urban India: Production, sales and consumer perspectives

India, the world's foremost milk producer, hosts over 53 million indigenous and 27 million crossbred or exotic milk-producing cows, resulting in a yearly output of 114 million tons of milk as of 2022, with an annual growth rate of 5.3%. Since 1970, the per capita milk consumption in India has quadrupled, in part due to rising incomes and urbanization, which has spurred dietary changes. Although indigenous cows yield only a third of the daily amount of milk of crossbred cows, their sheer number significantly contributes to the country’s total milk production. This abundance of indigenous cows’ milk presents opportunities for farmers to sell and for consumers to purchase so called “Desi cow milk”, alternatively also labeled “A2 milk”. In spite of the ongoing debate surrounding the health benefits of the A2 beta-casein variant in milk, the popularity of milk exclusively derived from indigenous cattle breeds like Gir is increasing in India. Taking the case of Bengaluru, a megacity in southern India, we examined the development of milk production and sales strategies in 2020 and 2022 and explored factors that triggered changes, particularly focusing on the emergence of A2 and Desi cow milk as niche products in response to changing consumer preferences and health perceptions. Additionally, we investigated dairy farmers' perceptions of milk quality and their experience with direct sales to consumers. Between January and March, 2020, we conducted face-to-face interviews with 79 dairy farmers who reared crossbred and indigenous zebu cows (Bos indicus) in urban and peri-urban areas of Bengaluru. The second round of interviews was conducted between May and July 2022, involving 62 dairy farmers with similar farming characteristics from the same region. Information gathered in both surveys number of cows, cow breed, types of milk produced, milk marketing strategies, and dairy farmers' customers plus their own and their clients’ perception of milk quality attributes. Whereas farmers kept 57% of crossbred cattle and 43% of indigenous cattle in their herd in 2020, these proportions shifted to 64% and 36% in 2022. In 2020, only 2% of farmers sold milk produced by indigenous cows as A2 milk, while 98% of farmers sold milk produced by indigenous and crossbred cows together as regular milk. However, in 2022, the scenario changed significantly. Sixteen percent of farmers sold A2 milk, and 43% and 41% of farmers sold milk from indigenous and crossbred cows separately as Desi and regular milk, respectively. The milk price also varied between and types of milk and years: In 2020, A2 milk was sold at 80 INR per liter and regular milk sold at 35 INR. By 2022, the liter price of A2 milk, Desi cow milk, and regular milk had increased to 90 INR, 60 INR, and 40 INR. In terms of marketing strategies, 77% of the surveyed farmers sold all of their milk to dairy cooperatives in 2020, while the remaining farmers used middlemen or sold directly to consumers. By 2022, there was a noticeable shift in marketing strategies, with all A2 milk producing farmers selling directly to consumers, 69% of farmers selling Desi cow milk directly to consumers, while most producers (77%) of regular milk still sold to dairy cooperatives. The motivation behind direct marketing of A2 and Desi cow milk was driven by the consumers’ expectations for freshness, quality, and specific health properties, whereby according to the farmers a higher price for A2 milk was paid by consumers with higher education and income. These consumers perceived health benefits for their children, trusted the product would enhance their social status, followed the advice of medical professionals, and were influenced by cultural and religious beliefs. Understanding their customers’ perceptions has led to an increased supply of specialty milk in this niche market, prompting farmers to promote A2 milk on their personal websites and social media platforms. Farmers and consumers currently lack a clear understanding of A2 milk certification, relying instead on trust and word-of-mouth when selling and purchasing milk. The formal certification process for A2 milk has not yet been initiated. As a result, the direct marketing relationship between farmers and consumers is critical for farmers’ livelihoods and to providing consumers with a specific type of milk that is largely unavailable commercially.

Speaker: Dr Shahin Alam (1. Department of Dairy and Poultry Science, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh, 2. Section of Animal Husbandry in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Kassel and Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Steinstr. 19, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany)

17:50 Open Display

Sustainable Agriculture and Resilience

60 The impacts of subsidies on household development resilience of pastoralists under climate shocks

How to adapt climate change and preserve household development resilience in ecologically vulnerable area is a pressing issue. As for pastoralists in ecologically vulnerable and arid regions, drought is the most prevalent and severe climate shock. However, there is a lack of direct evidence regarding to effective measures to help households to adapt climate shocks. Thus, this study presents the impacts of payment for ecosystem services (PES) on the household development resilience in arid areas in the context of drought shocks. Based on social and climate data from 2018 to 2021 in the northern pastoral areas of China, this study measures the effects of drought shocks and subsidies on household development resilience. Findings reveal that, in the short term, neither subsidies nor drought shocks significantly affect household welfare. Nevertheless, in the long term, subsidies strengthen household development resilience and alleviate the adverse impact of drought shocks. We have proved the reliability of these conclusions through multiple robustness checks and analyzed the mechanisms of subsidies. Our research provides abundant evidence for the formulation of climate change adaptation policies.

Speaker: Jizhe Wang (Lanzhou University)

61 Food Security and Globalization: Impacts of Climate Change in European Food Security. A Systematic Review

1. INTRODUCTION

Food systems constitute a relevant part of the political, social, economic, ecological and cultural fabric of communities (Ruggeri Laderchi et al., 2024). They could be described as social-ecological complex systems (Allen & Prosperi, 2016; Folke, 2006) composed by a multiplicity of sub-systems where a galaxy of relationships between the social sphere and the biosphere take place (Allen et al., 2014; Nguyen, 2018). These systems are not static and have evolved in time, following a process where global capitalism (McMichael, 2009, 2023), as well as policy-responses to different food crises (Clapp & Moseley, 2020), have played a relevant role.
These systems are also one of the main contributors to climate change and other and biophysical processes linked to anthropogenic activity. Current food systems are responsible for approximately 34% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (Crippa et al., 2021), also one of the main contributors to the loss of biodiversity (García-Vega et al., 2024), and, in the end, of exceeding planetary boundaries (Rockström et al., 2020). However, they are also severely affected by these processes, which are resulting in the inflammation of some of the most relevant challenges facing humanity, like persistent hunger, undernourishment and obesity (Ruggeri Laderchi et al., 2024). Although food insecurity has always been an issue, recent food crises are the living proof of the impacts of ecological processes on it. Those crises, strengthen by climate-induced factors, have also been a consequence of structural flaws in food systems which make them, as well as people nourished by them, highly vulnerable (Clapp, 2023; IPES-Food, 2022). In addition, crises have brought price spikes that have arisen the debate on food insecurity in regions of the global North, where pioneer studies have been carried out during last years, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic (Li et al., 2023; Loopstra, 2020; Moragues-Faus & Magaña-González, 2022; Rabbitt et al., 2023). Notwithstanding the efforts, these studies are still residual within the massive literature regarding food systems.
2. OBJECTIVES

The principal aim of the work is to make a literature review in a systematic way so that the state of art regarding the nexus between climate change, food prices and food security in the global North is addressed and analysed. The chosen region of analysis has been Europe because recent events have arisen the debate of food security in the global North (Brás et al., 2021; Büntgen et al., 2021; Naumann et al., 2021), and this region, despite its reach diversity, constitutes a relevant case-study for the aim of the work.
Apart from that main objective, the literature review carried out within this work aims to address other secondary aims: 1) to analyse, the foundations of the adaptation/mitigation proposals which are found within the consulted literature; 2) to study the presence, within the reviewed literature, of other relevant biophysical processes linked to anthropogenic activity apart from climate change; 3) to analyse the way vulnerability is addressed in this literature.
3. METHODS

To fulfil those objectives, the methodology of the work is divided in two parts. First of all, a systematic literature review is conducted to analyse the state of the art of the literature. This typology of literature review has been chosen as it is a consistent method for the analysis of the contributions, gaps, and plausible future research regarding certain topic (Grant & Booth, 2009). The different parts of the review are based on different systematic reviews (Birgani et al., 2022; Jia & Jiang, 2018; Mariano et al., 2015; Valls-Val & Bovea, 2021). Additionally, literature from Scopus and Web of Science is included and a bibliometric analysis is followed by a cluster analysis where each of the objectives constitutes a thematic cluster. Secondly, a review of the grey literature regarding these topics is conducted. For the selection of this literature, inputs from different national and international actors regarding food systems have been considered. The process, selection criteria and more specific elements are more detailed in the methodology section of the final work.
4. FINDINGS

Regarding the main objective of the work, addressing the climate change – food prices – food security nexus in the literature, preliminary results show that, unlike for the global South, where impacts of climate change in food security are more noticeable (Hasegawa et al., 2018) it could be described as an emerging research topic in Europe. Within the consulted literature little direct mention to the influence of climate change in food prices and, in turn, in food security, is made. The few times it is mentioned, it comes from recent works, most of them coming from the grey literature.
Concerning the secondary objectives, according to preliminary results, the majority of the papers found in the literature search addressing mitigation and/or adaptation proposals did it from a technological lens more than from alternative models such as agroecology or food sovereignty. Moreover, even if concepts like “planetary boundaries” or “ecological crisis” were added within the keywords for the literature search, most of it was linked only to climate change. Finally, the concept of vulnerability is hardly addressed, and, most of the times it is mentioned, it is in a generic way, far from analysing concrete situations and the overlapping of different forms of it.
5. CONCLUSION

Despite being a burning issue (which depends on structural factors of food systems), current academic literature does not seem to reflect the direct relationship between climate change, food prices and food security for global North countries yet. However, it could change during the following years, considering the recent climate extremes in Europe, and their effects on agriculture, health, economy and ecology. Moreover, studies like the ones reviewed should address other biophysical processes linked to anthropogenic activity apart from climate change and their effect on food security. The same happens with vulnerability approaches and the proposal of alternatives different to technological change. Those are some gaps in the literature which will need further research.

Keywords: food system, climate change, food prices, social-ecological systems, vulnerability

Speaker: Víctor Martínez (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

62 Understanding the role of resource bricolage in crop–livestock integration: Evidence from agro-pastoral interfaces in China

Based on fieldwork conducted in B Village, Qilian County, Qinghai Province, and Y Village, Minle County, Gansu Province, we shed new lights on how agriculturalists and pastoralists integrate resources to construct adaptive strategies, and how these strategies interact and perform agro-pastoral coupling to overcome the resource dilemma. Under the pressure from natural disasters, anti-grazing policy, supply chain, and product market, agriculturalists and pastoralists respond with combined strategies through a broad bricolage of natural, physical, financial, social, and human capital. Among them, transhumance (yidi jiemu) constitutes an emerging link between agricultural and pastoral areas and between agriculturalists and pastoralists. Pastoralists utilize the geographical advantage by moving their livestock from pastures to corn straw fields in the agricultural area to curtail grazing costs. Transhumance promotes crop–livestock integration and agro-pastoral coupling through mechanisms of resource sharing and reciprocity, characterized by positive socio-ecological impacts such as income growth, grassland restoration, and farmland fertility improvement. However, the sustainability of transhumance is increasingly challenged by high transaction costs and poor infrastructure. Our research has important implications for the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry and the effective balance between conservation and development in the agro-pastoral interface.

Speaker: Weiye Wang (Renmin University of China)

63 Scaling Up Soil Carbon Monitoring: The cost-effectiveness of Direct Measurement vs. a Model-Based Approach

Introduction
Carbon farming, involving the adoption of agricultural practices aiming at capturing carbon in soils, is a cornerstone of European climate strategies such as the Green Deal. Farmers are rewarded with carbon credits, which are purchased by companies on the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM)(1,2). It may also lead to other benefits such as improved soil fertility and food security (3–5). To ensure carbon credit transparency and reliability, cost-effective, rigorously evaluated protocols for soil carbon monitoring are crucial (6–8).
If soil organic carbon (SOC) is exclusively measured by physical soil sampling, this could be a potential barrier to the upscaling of carbon farming initiatives. The challenge stems from the high costs of collecting, storing, and analyzing soil samples over large areas (6,7). A viable alternative is to use a model-based approach that combines field measurements with remote sensing data. This could be a more cost-effective way to scale up the monitoring of SOC (6,9). However, such approaches are still in the research phase, and their estimates generally entail relatively high uncertainty (9,10). Additional research is needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this approach compared to direct field measurements (6,7).
Objective
This study aims to fill this gap by carrying out a comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing various approaches and identifying key elements and determining factors. This information is essential to enable decision-makers and researchers to make informed decisions and optimize processes for greater scalability.

Method
Our comparison of direct measurement and model-based approaches for carbon farming will be based on a previous study that has compared the cost-effectiveness of two direct SOC measurement methods (e.g. physical sample vs proxy sensing) in terms of their cost and accuracy (11), and on studies on a cost comparison of monitoring approaches for biodiversity conservation (12,13).
First, to calculate the costs and understand the cost allocation, we will establish a cost framework that we evaluate using a hypothetical carbon farming scheme. The cost framework will account for various implementation costs, including sampling, monitoring, travel, and analysis costs. The hypothetical scheme will be designed based on the approved methodologies of existing standards (14,15). The cost allocation categories and parameters require technical expertise, which will be gathered through scientific literature (8,11,16) and expert consultation using an elicitation method.
Second, accuracy will be determined based on experimental analysis. We will evaluate the accuracy of two monitoring methods by selecting fields—cropland and grassland—in distinct project study areas. Using direct field measurements and a process-based model informed by field data and remote sensing, we will estimate SOC. Comparative analysis will determine method uncertainties, calculating metrics like variance, 95th confidence intervals, and bias (10).
Scenario analysis will be used to compare the cost-effectiveness of both approaches between implementing the scheme at farm level and landscape level (with all surrounding farms involved). Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to determine the relative cost and the impact of factors such as sampling size, monitoring frequency and scale.

Findings
Results will contrast the cost-effectiveness of direct and model-based methods at farm and landscape level. Expected results could discuss following hypotheses:

• H1: Model-based approaches are potentially more cost-effective than direct soil measurements, but have a higher degree of uncertainty (6,7,9).
  The cost-effectiveness of both approaches is assessed based on the cost-accuracy ratio from a previous study (11). The direct measurement is at the nominator and model-based is at the denominator. A ratio above 1 will indicate that the model-based approach is more cost-effective.

• H2: The high cost of direct measurement at large scale is explained by the high cost associated to data collection, storage, and analysis (7).
  By comparing cost allocations, we will determine whether direct measurement incurs higher costs for data collection, storage, and analysis at large scale compared to model-based approach.

• H3: The high costs of field-based measurement at large scale can be attributed to the necessity of a more intensive sampling and increased labor requirements, as reported in a previous study (9).
  Sensitivity analysis will be employed to assess the influence of sampling size on cost-effectiveness, comparing cost per hectare across different sample sizes. Other cost-influencing factors, such as the monitoring frequency, will also be analyzed.

Conclusion
The results of this study will contribute to a better understanding on the costs for monitoring soil carbon sequestration, addressing critical assumptions, and paving the way for more effective scaling-up strategies. This knowledge could inform decision-making at various levels, the voluntary carbon market, and farmers:

• Policymakers: By understanding the cost-effectiveness of these approaches, policymakers can make informed decisions about how to allocate resources and support carbon farming initiatives.
• For market participants, such as carbon credit developers, this study offers evidence-based guidance on the design of carbon MRV guidelines and cost optimization strategies. By understanding the factors that influence the monitoring costs, carbon credit developers can make informed decisions about where to invest their resources to minimize costs and maximize the value of carbon credits.
• For farmers, this study provides evidence to help them choose the best scheme based on the monitoring costs they may face, whether the scheme uses a direct measurement-based approach or a model-based approach and whether they operate at the farm level or collectively at the landscape level.

References [Partial not enough words-see comments for all references]
1. COWI. Technical Guidance Handbook - setting up and implementing result-based carbon farming mechanisms in the EU. Kongens Lyngby: Ecologic Institute and IEEP; 2021. Report No.: CLIMA/C.3/ETU/2018/007.
2. Montanarella L, Panagos P. The relevance of sustainable soil management within the European Green Deal. Land Use Policy. 1 janv 2021;100:104950.
3. Parmesan C, Morecroft MD, Trisurat Y, Andrian R, Anshari GZ, Arneth A, et al. Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services. In: Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegria A, et al., éditeurs. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability [Internet]. UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2022. p. 197‑377. (Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Disponible sur: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/

Speaker: Lisa Vanderheyden (Université Catholique de Louvain)

64 National Food Security at the cost of other nations The case of Germany and its trade partners

Abstract
Here we examine the interdependencies between food and water security. We specifically analyze the impact of the food security strategies of an importing country on the water security of its trade partners. The example of Germany highlights the complex and interconnected nature of the system, demonstrating that this limitation extends beyond a single country. Based on our findings, addressing national food security demands developing a system thinking and nexus approach to acknowledge and encompass the existing intricate interdependencies among water and food security.

Keywords: food security, water security, trade and interdependencies, nexus thinking

Introduction
National Food basket, eating local and food diversity
Like many other nations, the German food basket has dramatically changed over the last century. The consumption of lesser proportions of potato (~78%) and bread (~43%) and greater proportions of oil (~1142%), fruit (~66%), vegetable (77%), egg (148%), and meat (34%) from 1900 to 2021 has translated to outsourcing food from trade partners (Figure A-1). Furthermore, the most recent food-based dietary guidelines of Germany encourage a higher diversity of food and consumption of vegetables and fruit for a healthy population (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) . National dietary guidelines are often based on health principles and economic conditions rather than sustainable management of natural resources (including water).
International trade, technological advancement, and an imbalanced tradeoff between eating local and promoting food diversity, no matter of the origins, potentially lead to extra pressure on water resources, particularly in trade partners. The imported virtual water is mainly through import of the fruits and derived products, followed by Beverage crops and spices (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Virtual water (green and blue) imported by Germany from countries with a water stress index higher than Germany grouped based on the FAO main animal and crop product categories ,
Food security in Germany - It refers to the nutrition circle as Germany’s food guide . The German in-house food basket contains - without beverages and candies - 79 different foods, grouped into eight food categories namely bread and cereals, meat and meat products, fish and fish products, milk and dairy products, fats and oils, fruits, vegetables, and sugar (Statistisches Bundesamt, 2011). However, this food basket has dramatically changed over time (Figure 2)

Figure 2: Consumption of food products in Germany for 1900 and 2021 (per capita) (downloaded from DBV. (December 5, 2022). Per capita consumption of food products in Germany in 1900 and 2021 (in kilograms) .

The DGE (German Nutrition Society) Nutrition Circle reflects the size of the segments as a measure of the quantity of each food (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Modified from percentage of crop and animal products (excluding drinks) for different segments of the nutrient cycle in Germany11.

Methods and Data:

We used descriptive comparative analysis to estimate the amount of the net virtual blue water imported by Germany from countries with higher levels of water stress than Germany (Figure 4) through the import of animal and crop products. The estimated values are categorized into eleven groups based on the FAO main Food groups (Figure 5).
The virtual water trade data used in this paper was extracted from Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2010; Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2011 and Mekonnen and Hoekstra 20125–7. This report quantified the water footprint per ton of crop at national and sub-national levels (m3/ton) between 1996-2005. To identify the water-stressed countries, the SDG 6.4.2 indicator data for 2019 was used . The list of countries with export of animal and crop products (type and quantity) to Germany for 2019 was downloaded from FAOstat . To categorize the estimated data, FAO main Food Groups are used .
Results and discussion
Intertwined Concepts of Water and Food Security
Overlooking the intertwined impacts of water and food security nexus poses a major challenge in measuring the extend of national food security. No quantitative or qualitative scale exists able to account for the simultaneous impacts of achieving or improving the status of water and food security nexus, like in the case of Germany´s food partner trades (e.g., South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Spain, etc.) which have higher levels of water stress than Germany. Our assessment reveals that one-third of the countries exporting crop and animal products to Germany face levels of water stress higher than Germany (Figure 4). It shows that the importance of externalizing water use (rising virtual water trade) and its adverse effect on trade partners to level up in national food security are indeliberately overlooked.

Figure 4. Level of water stress countries exporting crop and animal products to Germany, 2019 (levels of stress severity: no stress <25%; low 25% - 50%; medium 50% - 75%; high 75-100%; critical >100% .
Blue virtual water trades
To understand the extent of pressure on water resources, we assess blue water resources, individually. Knowing that the blue water is the main concern in water-scarce countries, as it directly affects the availability of water for human use, economic activities, and the majority of ecosystems, about 94% of the blue water exported to Germany from nations having a water stress index higher than Germany is supplied by just ten countries (Figure 5), with approximately 44% of it coming from Spain.

Figure 5. Virtual blue water exported to Germany from countries with a water stress index higher than Germany(>33.5%), 2019 .
Conclusion:
The overlooked assessment of food security from the perspective of water-stressed trade partners highlights the need for a wholesome approach with a global nexus perspective that considers synergies and tradeoffs between water security and food security.
This argument extends beyond one country; it pertains to a global perspective and calls for the adoption of a systemic thinking approach to comprehend the fundamentals of system thinking and its inherent complexity. Overlooking system thinking and the interdependencies between food and water security lead to imbalanced trade and resource distribution, ultimately favoring some at the expense of others. Integrated and coordinated approaches that consider the interconnected nature of the food and water security are essential for effective implementation and progress towards achieving national food security.

Speaker: Sudeh Dehnavi

17:25 Open Display

19:00 Joint dinner at Bullerjahn Restaurant

Wednesday 18 September

Plenary Session 3

65 Minding the Gap: Measurement challenges in the gender and food systems framework

In the gender and food systems framework (Njuki et al. 2022), food system drivers are anchored in a gendered social, political, institutional, and economic system with structural gender inequalities that shape individuals’ and households’ risks and vulnerabilities. These drivers in turn influence the three main components of food systems – value chains, food environments, and consumer behavior – and their outcomes. This talk will explore the interrelationships among an array of food systems outcomes--diet, nutrition, and food security outcomes, economic and livelihood outcomes (primarily in agriculture), environmental outcomes (including natural resources outcomes), and well-being outcomes—and women’s empowerment and gender equality. I will then focus on the measurement challenges involved in examining the linkages between women’s empowerment and gender equality and these food system outcomes. Drawing on our work developing the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), I will discuss how the WEAI has been adapted to measure specific aspects of food systems related to market inclusion and health and nutrition, as well as ongoing work related to environmental outcomes and livelihoods both within and outside agriculture. I will assess how much progress has been made in measurement and analysis, and end with identifying research gaps and opportunities for future work.

Speaker: Dr Agnes R. Quisumbing (IFPRI)

66 The Missing Piece? The Role of Urban Food Actions for Food System Transformation

With 80 percent of the global population residing in urban areas, cities can profoundly influence food systems, shaping consumption patterns and generating waste, whilst contributing to pollution and resource degradation. However, cities also represent powerhouses of enthusiasm, experimentation and engagement – places where increasing numbers of people are participating in food activities for diverse benefits, including nutritional, social and environmental motivations, as well as a connection to nature and for personal wellbeing. However, divisions in practice and perception persist between food and agriculture and the city and country that can obscure the full potential of food system transformation. In this presentation I will talk about how people in cities are coming together in new ways and spaces to develop alternative food practices and transition pathways for achieving more just and sustainable food systems. From my background in anthropology, I will draw on grounded research from countries such as Australia, Venezuela, Spain and Norway, complemented by my work in international projects that advocate for urban food system interventions, including SHARECITY, EdiCitNet, FoodCLIC and FixOurFood. Together, these examples provide an insight to the values, spaces, possibilities and politics for transitioning towards food system transformation.

Speaker: Dr Ferne Edwards (Centre for Food Policy, City St. George's, University of London)

10:00 Coffee break

Bridging Consumer Intentions and Actions

67 From Intentions to Actions: Unraveling the Cultural and Consumption Value Dynamics of Consumer Behavior Towards Sustainable Products.

Keywords
Consumption Values, Culture, Purchase intention, Purchase behavior, Plant-based meat products

Introduction
Sustainable consumption is a key area of interest in consumer behavior research, especially with growing environmental consciousness (Chakraborty & Dash, 2022). Understanding what drives people to make sustainable choices involves various factors. Sheth et al. (1991) proposed a framework that encompasses five distinct consumption values: functional, social, emotional, epistemic, and conditional. These values provide a comprehensive understanding of how consumer decisions are made across product categories and contexts. Cultural factors are also influential, as Hofstede's (1983) cultural dimensions theory suggests, which is significant in sustainable consumption. This study aims to explore how cultural factors interact with consumption values in impacting sustainable purchases.
Using a quantitative approach, this research hypothesizes that consumption values will drive sustainable purchases, with cultural factors moderating this relationship. The findings of this research will have practical implications for businesses, policymakers, and marketers, allowing them to design strategies that encourage more sustainable choices. Adapted strategies that consider cultural differences can effectively engage consumers in sustainable consumption.

Objective
Previous research on plant-based meat products has focused on brand recognition, healthy eating habits, ethnocentrism, and native origins. However, motivations behind consuming these products have been largely overlooked. This gap in research has raised questions for both academics and businesses. To address this, we have chosen to use the theory of consumption values (TCV) by Sheth et al. (1991). TCV has been extensively applied to understand consumer attitudes across diverse sectors (Wong et al., 2019), and we believe it offers valuable insights into enhancing the consumption of plant-based meat products. Considering the strong link between consumption values and purchasing intentions leading to purchase behavior, such research within the context of plant-based meat products might reveal consumer preferences for certain values.
The main research questions based on our study are:
RQ 1. How do different consumption values relate to the purchase intention of sustainable products?
RQ 2: Does sustainable purchase intention lead to actual purchase behavior?
RQ 3. Does culture moderate the impact of different consumption values on customers’ purchase intentions of sustainable products?

Formulation of Hypothesis
The Theory of Consumption Values (TCV) posits that consumer preferences emerge from five distinct and essential values: conditional, functional, emotional, epistemic, and social (Sheth et al., 1991). It is suggested that these values significantly shape consumers' choices and their connections with products or services (Choi and Johnson, 2019). According to TCV, these consumption values are critical determinants in the decision-making process of consumers (Joshi et al., 2021), offering insights into why consumers might prefer certain products over others or opt not to buy at all (Sheth et al., 1991). The absence of TCV application in studying plant-based meat products previously provides a compelling reason to adopt it as the theoretical framework for this investigation. Research based on the theory of Planned Behavior suggests that consumer attitudes, environmental concerns, social pressures, and perceived ease of purchase, significantly predict intentions to buy plant-based meats, which in turn likely leads to actual purchasing behavior (Ajzen, 1991). This insight has led us to formulate six hypotheses.
Hypothesis H1: Functional value positively impacts the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H2: Social value positively impacts the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H3: Emotional value positively impacts the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H4: Conditional value positively impacts the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H5: Epistemic value positively impacts the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H6: Purchase intention positively influences the purchase behavior of customers.

Culture as moderator
Based on Hofstede’s Culture theory (Hofstede, 1983), cultural orientation significantly influences consumer behavior, with individualistic cultures valuing personal autonomy and functional benefits, leading to a stronger intent to purchase sustainable products. (Zimu, 2023; Markus & Kitayama, 1991). In collectivist cultures, communal values and social responsibility towards environmental preservation strongly influence the purchase intention of sustainable products, while in individualistic cultures, personal benefits and the cognitive value of sustainable choices play a more significant role in shaping purchase intentions (Hofstede, 2011). We aim to explore how cultural differences impact the relationship between consumption values and the intention to purchase plant-based meat products, thereby proposing the following hypotheses.
Hypothesis H7: Culture moderates the impact of customers’ functional value on the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H8: Culture moderates the impact of customers’ social value on the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H9: Culture moderates the impact of emotional value on the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H10: Culture moderates the impact of conditional value on the purchase intention of sustainable products.
Hypothesis H11: Culture moderates the impact of epistemic value on the purchase intention of sustainable products.

Methodology
The study adopts a quantitative research methodology, focusing on collecting and analyzing data from a Canadian sample regarding the purchase behavior of plant-based meat products. A combination of purposive and snowball sampling strategies is utilized to gather data. Data will be collected through structured questionnaires designed on Qualtrics to capture information pertinent to the research objectives.
The collected data will be analyzed using PLS-SEM with SmartPLS 3.3.3 software. PLS-SEM is chosen for its robustness in analyzing complex models and its ability to handle small to medium sample sizes efficiently (Hair et al, 2022). The measurement model will be evaluated by the reliability and validity of the constructs through indicators such as Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability, average variance extracted (AVE), and discriminant validity.
Structural model assessment will be done by examining the relationships between constructs by assessing path coefficients, R-square values, and the significance of the relationships through bootstrapping procedures. The moderating effect of culture will be investigated within the model to more comprehensively understand the dynamics between variables.

Conclusion
This study aims to explore how consumption values affect the intention and behavior towards buying plant-based meats and how culture influences this relationship, offering insights into consumer behavior and providing implications for marketing, policy, and promoting sustainable food choices, emphasizing the need for strategies that resonate more with personal motivations, societal influences, and values.

Speaker: Dr Vahideh Baradaran (Assistant Professor, Department of Marketing, Entrepreneurship and Strategy University Canada West)

68 Is the treatment effect obtained from within, between, or mixed group experiments the same? A real auction experiment about consumers’ preference on carbon-neutral milk

1.Introduction
Transforming the agri-food system towards lower-carbon emissions is a critical element to combat climate change, given that it accounts for about one-third of global carbon emissions (Crippa et al., 2021). This urgency is compounded by increasing incomes and changing dietary preferences, particularly the growing demand for meat and dairy products, which further amplify the system's carbon emissions (Rust et al., 2020; Guzmán-Luna et al., 2022).
Carbon labeling is recognized as a cost-effective and feasible market-based environmental management tool in reducing consumer carbon footprints (Taufique et al., 2022). It aims to encourage low-carbon consumption by providing information on products’ carbon emissions (Emberger and Menrad, 2018) and has been adopted in over 13 developed countries and regions (Liu et al., 2016). Literatures have shown mixed results of the carbon label scheme implementation. Some studies demonstrate positive effects, it increased willingness to pay for low-carbon products (Xu and Lin, 2021), enhanced sales of low-carbon items, and reduced high-carbon product sales (Edenbrandt and Lagerkvist, 2021). Others indicate minimal impact on pricing or demand (Kilders and Caputo, 2024) and potential consumer preference for high-emission products in certain cases (Soregaroli et al., 2021). Besides, most of the research has been conducted in developed countries (Muller et al., 2019). A few emerging literatures have shown attention to developing countries, which rely on stated preference analysis (Xu and Lin, 2021; Wang et al., 2023) or based on student samples (Zhao et al., 2023), potentially suffer hypothetical bias and representativeness issues.
On the other hand, there is a growing interest in literatures to evaluate the impact of designed interventions in behavior or preferences changes, such as information treatment or price adjustments (Katare et al., 2023; Meerza et al., 2023; Zossou et al., 2022). A considerable number of studies use different experiment methods to find treatment effects on consumer willingness to pay for food with eco-labels (Zhou et al., 2017; Staples et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2021), but without careful assessment of experiment designs (Bougherara and Combris, 2009).
The emergence of carbon labeled foods in China provides a opportunity to gather empirical evidence in emerging countries. This paper employs a real online auction experiment in two Chinese cities, Shanghai and Beijing, as a case study to examine consumer preferences for carbon-neutral milk and the impact of information treatment, conducts a comparative analysis of the treatment effects under different experiment designs.
2.Objective

The empirical objectives are to explore: 1) whether there exists a WTP for carbon-neutral claim on food by consumers to alleviate carbon emissions by shopping and what factors may influence such WTPs? 2) whether receiving more information about global warming nudges consumers towards low-carbon consumption and what factors influencing the nudge impact? 3) whether there exists a difference for treatment effect results under different experiment design, if yes, what causes the differences? The contribution of this study to literature has two folds. It is the first to study consumers’ actual willingness to pay for carbon labels in emerging countries, alleviating hypothetical bias and sample selection problems. Secondly, it is among the few studies that evaluate the differences in treatment effects attributable to various experimental designs and investigates the underlying causes.
3.Method
This study has opted for the real BDM auction method (Becker et al., 1964), which is shown to be effective in numerous literatures (Banergi et al., 2020; Liu and Tian, 2021; Jiang et al., 2023). The auction design incorporates an endowment-and-upgrade approach to directly elucidate consumers' willingness to pay for food labels. Participants indicated the premium they were willing to pay to exchange the endowed milk for the upgraded version. Simultaneously, a random market price was generated from the predetermined distribution. The distribution of the random market price is determined by experts' consultations and a pilot investigation of the emerging market. The specific random market price distribution is not known to the respondents to avoid anchor effects and to ensure their bids remained independent of any predetermined price (Lusk et al., 2001). If a participant's bid equaled or exceeded the random market price, they paid the generated price and the endowed milk to obtain the upgraded product. The payment was facilitated through a deduction of platform points, automatically carried out upon the release of auction results. The obtained products were shipped to participants' addresses by the platform, safeguarding anonymity as researchers lacked access to this information.

4.Findings and conclusion

First, consumers demonstrate a WTP an average of 2.3 yuan for products bearing a carbon-neutral label. Second, certain demographic and psychological factors influence this WTP: younger individuals, those employed, individuals in related professions, more altruistic people, and those who believe carbon labels effectively combat climate change or signify a high-quality lifestyle are more inclined to pay a premium. Third, we observed consistent values across different experimental designs, albeit with varying levels of significance. The within-subjects design highlighted that information intervention significantly boosts bids for carbon-neutral labeled milk by an average of 0.18 yuan at a 5% significance level. However, this increase was not statistically significant in the between-group design, while in the mixed design, the rise was significant at the 10% level. Fourth, we found no significant difference in WTP for carbon labels before and after the presentation of unrelated information, indicating that the observed differences are not attributable to order effects. In the within-subjects design, 14 out of 151 respondents preferred consistency in their bids, suggesting a tendency to stick with their initial bid. There was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups in their valuation of carbon labels, which suggests the absence of an inappropriate baseline issue in the between-subjects design. Finally, while the between-design results suggest that information intervention does not significantly enhance the premium for carbon labels, it appears to elevate consumers' intentions for repeat purchases and increases in consumption amounts.

Speaker: yu jiang (southwestern university of finance and economics)

69 Sustainability assessment of food waste reduction measures in a German university canteen

Sustainability assessment of food waste reduction measures in a German university canteen

BÜTTEMEIER, Malin, ORR, Lia
Thuenen Institute of Market Analysis, Bundesallee 63, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
E-mail: malin.buettemeier@thuenen.de

Keywords: food waste, reduction measures, sustainability assessment, food service, university

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Introduction

Globally, around 1.3 billion tons of the produced food is wasted along the entire food value chain (FAO 2011). Being at the end of this chain, the food that is wasted at food service level comprises many ecological and economic resources (Kuntscher et al. 2021). To protect these resources, Germany implemented different food waste reduction measures (BMEL 2024). In food service, to support companies that are interested in tackling their FW, the Centre of Excellence for Food Service was established. Voluntarily companies can request a sustainability assessment of their implemented measures conducted by the Thünen Institute. The assessment results of a German university canteen will be presented in this abstract.

Objective

The sustainability of food waste reduction measures has been very little researched until now. Some assessment frameworks have been created by Caldeira et al. (2019) and Goossens et al. (2019) but there is more data needed to evaluate the efficiency of different reduction measures and to deduce which measures are useful for which company.

Methods

The university measured its food waste for four weeks before implementing reduction actions and after six months of implementation. To describe the costs and benefits of each action for all three sustainability dimensions (environmental, economic, social), data were gathered and accomplished by interviews conducted with two kitchen employees. For determining the environmental and nutritional values of the meals the databases Agribalyse and ANSES-CIQUAL were used. The sustainability assessment follows the framework published by Goossens et al. (2019), comprising the effectiveness (FW savings in kg), the resource efficiency (costs and benefits), the nutritional value of the food waste savings and the benefit to cost ratios. Qualitatively, the implementation effort, transferability and longevity of the measures were assessed (Goossens et al. 2022).

Findings

The university canteens (six operating sites) implemented the following five measures: Food waste measurement, optimization of Fridays, raising awareness among kitchen staff, less pre-production and more production on demand and a waste saver special. Not all measures were implemented in all operating sites. They were individually bundled and implemented simultaneously. Overall, the university was able to reduce its food waste by 1,302 kg (12 %). This involves ecological savings of 5,846 kg CO2 equivalents and 2,365 milli points Product Environmental Footprint (mPt PEF). Economically, the measures caused losses of 11,432 Euros. The ecological efficiency therefore resulted in 0.298 kg CO2 equivalents and 0.121 mPt PEF saved per invested Euro while the economic dimension resulted in an inefficiency by only saving 42 cents per invested euro. There were no social effects reported. Regarding the operating sites in detail, four locations achieved food waste reductions (between 23 and 59 %) whereas two experienced rising FW numbers (6 and 180 %). Regarding the food waste per meal (figure 1), the overall numbers slightly rose from 25.8 g to 31.10 g/ meal. In detail, three locations reduced their FW per meal between 13 and 65 % whereas the other three locations increased their food waste by 2 to 52 % per meal.

A possible reason for these diverse developments may be the low initial food waste values at the beginning of the project. The university already considered actions for FW reduction before the project, which lowered the values and therefore the potential of further reductions. On top of that, there were fluctuations in the number of guests between the two measuring periods, which could have influenced the FW numbers.
These very diverse food waste developments as well as the simultaneous implementation of the measures in bundles makes it nearly impossible to attribute the results to specific measures. Only the main economic costs can be traced back: The service provider costed 9,700 Euros and the waste saver special almost 4,800 Euros. So, comparing different service providers for FW tracking and choosing a cheaper one or do the FW measurement inhouse is recommended. A waste saver special is only recommended if its selling price covers the price of the goods and with the true meal leftovers only. The selection of other measures depends on a company’s individual financial and employee capacities and the individual realistic food waste reduction potential.

Conclusions

Overall, the university canteen was able to reduce its food waste by 12 % and saved 5,846 kg CO2 equivalents and 2,365 mPt PEF in six months by implementing five different measures. At the same time, the measures caused economic losses of 11,432 Euros. The diverse developments in the single operating sites are most likely caused by the already low FW numbers resulting in limited reduction potential as well as the fluctuations in the number of guests. In general, a recommended first step to start tackling food waste is a food waste monitoring. This measure provides an overview of the current food waste amount and sources and allows an analysis of the FW development long-term. Raising awareness among the kitchen staff was also very effective in this case study. Since then, the employees value the food even more and independently try to avoid FW wherever possible.

Bibliography
BMEL (2024): Nationale Strategie zur Reduzierung der Lebensmittelverschwendung. https://www.bmel.de/DE/themen/ernaehrung/lebensmittelverschwendung/strategie-lebensmittelverschwendung.html
Caldeira, Carla; Laurentiis, Valeria de; Sala, Serenella (2019): Assessment of food waste prevention actions. https://food.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2019-12/fs_eu-actions_eu-platform_jrc-assess-fw.pdf
FAO (2011): Global food losses and food waste. https://www.fao.org/3/mb060e/mb060e.pdf.
Goossens, Yanne; Leverenz, Dominik; Kuntscher, Manuela (2022): Waste-tracking tools: A business case for more sustainable and resource efficient food services. In: Resources Conservation & Recycling Advances 15 (19), S. 200112. DOI: 10.1016/j.rcradv.2022.200112.
Goossens, Yanne; Wegner, Alina; Schmidt, Thomas (2019): Sustainability Assessment of Food Waste Prevention Measures: Review of Existing Evaluation Practices. In: Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 3, Artikel 90. DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2019.00090.
Kuntscher, Manuela; Goossens, Yanne; Schmidt, Thomas (2021): Lebensmittelabfälle in der Außer-Haus-Verpflegung reduzieren – Handlungsempfehlungen für die Praxis. https://www.ernaehrungs-umschau.de/fileadmin/Ernaehrungs-Umschau/pdfs/pdf_2022/02_22/EU02_2022_M68_M73_open_access.pdf

Speaker: Malin Büttemeier

70 Forced Active Choice or Default Nudging? A Cafeteria Field Study on Decreasing Meat Portion Sizes

Keywords: Nutrition behavior, Gender differences, Ethical interventions, choice architecture, Health clinic cafeteria, Sustainability, Decision-making autonomy

Introduction and Objectives: This study delves into the evaluation of two distinct interventions designed to curb meat consumption within cafeteria settings: the forced active choice (requiring explicit meat portion selection) and the default nudging (providing a reduced meat portion by default but allowing an opt-out option). While the former tends to prioritize individual decision-making autonomy, the latter often proves more effective in terms of influencing behavioral change. The primary objectives are to assess the efficacy of these interventions and their acceptability among cafeteria patrons. The study was pre-registered with a focus on three key questions related to reducing meat portions: (a) whether forced active choice is significantly less effective than default nudging, (b) whether both interventions differ significantly in terms of acceptance among cafeteria users, and (c) whether the interventions are significantly more effective for certain types of meat-based dishes.

Methods: Our field study was conducted within the actual confines of a health clinic cafeteria and spanned three distinct observation phases, each lasting six weeks: a baseline phase and two intervention phases. The study encompassed a total of 5,966 food choices made by cafeteria visitors. The forced active choice intervention prompted individuals to select either standard or reduced meat portion sizes. In contrast, the default nudge intervention automatically set the default option to reduced meat portions while informing individuals on the choice to opt-out. Data collection was performed manually by our research team using tablets, with team members disguised as chefs positioned behind the serving stations. Following the intervention phases, we surveyed 125 cafeteria users to assess their acceptance of the interventions. We evaluated the intervention's effects through chi-square tests, a Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test, and coefficient plots generated from linear regression analysis.

Findings: The results to each research question (a-c) were as follows: (a) Both interventions were effective in increasing the selection of reduced meat portions across all tested meat dishes. However, the default nudge intervention had a significantly greater impact, with 90.6% of individuals opting for reduced portions (Cohen’s d =2.73 vs. baseline), compared to 38.5% in the active choice condition (Cohen’s d=0.7 vs. baseline). The active choice intervention exacerbated gender differences in selecting reduced meat portions (48% for women vs. 13% for men), while the baseline (13% for women vs. 3% for men) and the default nudge mitigated these differences (95% for women vs. 81% for men). (b) While active choice was slightly more accepted (rated at 6.38 out of 7) than the default nudge (rated at 6.08 out of 7), both interventions were perceived as ethical by cafeteria users in this study. (c) Additionally, we observed variations in the effectiveness of the default nudge depending on the type of meat dish. Meat-centered dishes (e.g., steak) responded more favorably to the default nudge compared to mixed-meat dishes (e.g., Bolognese sauce). For meat-centered dishes, kitchen chefs believed that sensory quality could be maintained despite more ambitious reduction targets, i.e. lowering the proposed meat quantitiy by 50% as compared to an average reduction of 35% in mixed dishes. Nevertheless, cafeteria users followed the chef's default choice to a similar extent across all meat dishes.

Discussion and Conclusions: This study underscores that choice architects may sacrifice effectiveness for consumer autonomy when favoring active choice in a setting which is accepting of defaults. The findings illuminate this trade-off, emphasizing that the choice of intervention hinges on the legitimacy of the choice architect's actions in pursuit of a goal and the degree to which that goal is desirable for the group of individuals being influenced. We also emphasize that the survey, which may lack sufficient statistical power, does not reveal lower acceptance for defaults, highlighting the possible superiority of intrusive approaches here. Additionally, our research reinforces the idea that transparent nudging is a morally superior approach and, in some cases, can prove equally or even more effective. It's worth noting that altering meat portions in meat-centric dishes is typically more conspicuous compared to mixed dishes, potentially alerting a larger number of cafeteria users to the changes. Nevertheless, this disparity has not resulted in higher opt-out rates, underscoring the importance of ensuring that portion size adjustments remain transparent, benefiting both ethical considerations and, in some cases, effectiveness.

Limitations: We acknowledge several limitations, including potential sample bias among cafeteria users and the specific setting of our study. Further research is needed to validate our findings across various settings and populations. The relatively large effect sizes as indicated by Cohen‘s d should be interpreted cautiously, especially with regard to acceptance, which may vary substantially in other cafeteria settings.

Implications and Future Research: The insights gained from this study hold valuable implications for cafeteria managers and policymakers striving to reduce meat consumption. In summary, this study offers a nuanced understanding of the trade-offs inherent in different behavioral strategies, offering valuable guidance for the design of ethical and effective food choice architectures.

Speaker: Dominic Lemken (University of Bonn)

Farmer Preferences and Identities

71 Understanding farmers’ willingness to adopt high-value crops in Bhutan – A discrete choice experiment.

Agriculture and its development have long been recognized as one of the primary drivers of economic growth, development, and poverty reduction in developing countries. Policymakers and international organizations have actively advocated for the transition from subsistence farming to market-oriented agriculture as a pivotal strategy to combat poverty and enhance farmers’ income and food security. In line with this global perspective, the Royal Government of Bhutan embarked on an agricultural transformation journey through its five-year plan since the 1960s, seeking to foster a shift from traditional subsistence farming to a more market-based agriculture. What sets Bhutan apart is its unique emphasis on sustainable agriculture, which has been identified as the very cornerstone of the country's overall development agenda. Bhutan, facing challenges like climate change, limited arable land, and rural-urban migration, is considering high-value crops as a "low volume high value" strategy to enhance agricultural profitability and appeal to the youth. Some farmers are already shifting their cultivation from lower-value to higher-value crops like apples, citrus mandarin, asparagus, cauliflower, broccoli, cardamom, and avocados among others. However, this transition is slow and happens in specific areas, particularly in places with better access to i) large domestic markets (western and more urbanized parts of the country), and ii) export markets in southern border towns. As a mountainous country, Bhutan's unique topography presents a fragile environment that leaves farmers with limited room for experimentation and risky innovations. As a result, gaining a deeper understanding of farmers' high-value crops adoption choice is crucial for supporting farmers at the national level through effective strategies meeting their needs and desires.
Employing a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), this study investigates farmers' preferences for high-value crops and identifies key challenges and drivers shaping high-value crops adoption in Bhutan. The study stands out by considering both production and marketing attributes, along with support provision. In particular, the attributes considered are the following: establishment period of the crop, labor requirement per acre, production cost per acre, potential income per acre, perishability of the crop, mode of sale, and support. The paper also estimates the Willingness To Pay (WTP) to understand the economic relevance of these characteristics and analyzes how farmers' risk tolerance, market distance, wealth, off-farm diversification, and knowledge of the innovation affect farmers’ preferences. Choice experiment data were collected from 902 farmers across four districts, i.e. Thimphu, Paro, Zhemgang, and Trashigang, during November-December 2022. This experiment was part of the 'Bhutan Agricultural Livelihoods and Management Survey' (BALMS) conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in collaboration with the College of Natural Resources (CNR) of the Royal University of Bhutan (RUB). To ensure a cost-effective sample design and overcome the absence of comprehensive farmer household lists across all administrative units, a multi-stage cluster sampling approach was employed. The main model is a mixed logit (MXL) model estimated by simulated maximum likelihood with 500 Halton draws and assuming a normal distribution of the random parameters.
Results reveal that the long establishment periods crucially decrease farmers’ willingness to adopt high-value crops. Shorter establishment periods, such as seasonal high-value crops, are preferred over longer ones, indicating a high intertemporal discount rate, or, in other terms, a preference for quicker returns on investment. Farmers positively value attributes related to potential income, direct market sale, and risk-reducing interventions like electric fences, storage facilities, and technical training. Conversely, they hold negative perceptions of production costs, labor requirements, and crop perishability. Furthermore, significant preference heterogeneity exists across districts, socio-economic characteristics, and risk tolerance. While farmers in all districts value positively the adoption of high-value crops, risk-prone and wealthier farmers value high-value crops more positively. Considering the establishment period attribute, previous experience with permanent and high-value crops, and off-farm diversification play crucial roles in reducing farmers' aversion towards longer establishment periods. Risk-averse farmers value longer establishment period more negatively than risk-prone farmers. Farmers in the rural and most-distant-from-the-market districts, value more positively electric fences and more negatively perishable high-value crops. Finally, farmers are willing to pay in order to get the preferred supports, such as electric fences and storage facilities, while they would require monetary compensation for growing high-value crops with longer establishment periods. The multifaceted nature of farmers' adoption decisions necessitates a comprehensive policy approach. The findings underscore the need to address farmers' high-intertemporal discount rates and risks associated with high-value crop cultivation suggesting the provision of initial investment support, promotion of knowledge transfer for informed decision-making and reduced risk perception, and mitigating risks through infrastructure investments as viable means. Finally, promoting high-value crops that align with farmers' preferences and implementing context-specific, targeted policies are the key boosters of high-value crops adoption.

Keywords: High-value crops, Bhutan, farmers preferences, Discrete Choice Experiment, intertemporal discount rate, risk tolerance.

Speaker: Sara Burrone (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

72 Willingness to adopt insect farming in Africa is associated with risk attitude and perceived benefit: Evidence from three countries

Introduction
Research underscores the potential of alternative protein sources in advancing sustainable food systems to foster sustainable diets (Parodi et al., 2018; Willett et al., 2019). Among these alternatives, edible insects are one them, offering high-quality animal protein and essential nutrients (Liceaga et al., 2022). However, these species are typically part of traditional diets sourced from wild harvesting in tropical countries, which limits their potential as alternative protein sources due to challenges such as seasonality and environmental contamination (van Huis et al., 2013). To overcome these challenges, insect farming has emerged as a novel and sustainable agricultural practice (Verner et al., 2021). Implemented at a small scale, insect farming holds potential for benefiting vulnerable farm households in developing countries facing issues like arable land scarcity and climate-induced shortages of farming inputs (Nischalke et al., 2020; van Huis et al., 2013). Insect farming requires less land and water, produces fewer greenhouse gases, has a high feed conversion ratio, and can be conducted using low-tech and inexpensive materials and feed (van Huis & Oonincx, 2017). Furthermore, it can support food security initiatives in areas where affordable nutritious foods are scarce (van Huis et al., 2021) and contributes positively to employment and income generation for households (Gahukar, 2016; van Huis et al., 2013). Therefore, insect farming is an innovative approach that can serve as a form of mini-livestock for rural households (Bai et al., 2023; Nischalke et al., 2020).

While the adoption of new agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers is well-researched (Feder et al., 1985; Zilberman et al., 2012), there exists a gap in the literature regarding the adoption of insect farming. In this study, we aim to address three objectives. First, we provide a rigorous investigation of the willingness to adopt insect farming in Africa. This investigation is critical for determining whether and which interventions are needed to promote insect farming, as evidence regarding drivers of adoption in developing countries is lacking despite several initiatives supporting insect farming (Verner et al., 2021). Understanding these drivers is essential for informing targeted policy options consistent with constraints and preferences (Blazy et al., 2011). Second, we examine the role of behavioral factors in driving willingness to adopt. While the literature on insect consumption investigates the influence of behavioral factors on willingness to eat insects (Mulungu et al., 2023), to the authors’ knowledge, no research has specifically examined these factors concerning insect farming. Behavioral factors, such as risk attitude, perceived benefit, and perceived control, play a significant role in farmers’ internal decision-making processes (Abay et al., 2017; Dessart et al., 2019). However, these factors are often overlooked compared to non-behavioral factors such as credit access (Meijer et al., 2015; Mobarak & Saldanha, 2022). In this study, we focus on these key behavioral factors. Third, we examine the role of information, social capital, and experience in willingness to adopt insect farming. These factors have been associated with farmers' decisions to adopt (Marra et al., 2003), but it remains unclear whether they influence insect farming decisions. We hypothesize that awareness of new technology, social capital, and experience may play crucial roles in shaping farmers' willingness to adopt insect farming.

To achieve our objectives, we employ cross-sectional data collected from three countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda), representing regions in Africa where traditional insect consumption is common (Siddiqui et al., 2023), and insect farming activities are rapidly expanding (Verner et al., 2021). A total of 8,886 farm households participated in the survey. Our regression analysis indicates that behavioral factors, including risk attitude, perceived benefits, and perceived control, are important drivers of willingness to adopt insect farming in Africa.

Method
We developed a common questionnaire adjusted for context to collect data from the three countries. Based on a multistage sampling approach, 99 villages were selected in each country for the survey. The survey was administered using the REDCap software. We collected diverse information encompassing socioeconomic and demographic factors, child and household dietary diversity, food insecurity perception, risk attitude and perception, willingness to adopt insect farming, perceived benefits and control of insect farming, and experiences with insect consumption and farming. We analyzed the data using a linear probability model with additional robustness checks.

Findings
Our findings reveal that risk attitude, perceived benefit, and control influence willingness to adopt insect farming. Farmers with a risk-taking attitude are more likely to adopt insect farming than risk-averse farmers, as are those who perceive it as beneficial and simple to implement. Experiential factors, such as prior experience with insect consumption and information from religious and community organizations, positively influence willingness to adopt. Furthermore, we find that young men and risk-taking women are more willing to adopt insect farming. Conversely, factors such as cultivated land size, distance to markets, and household dietary diversity are negatively associated with adoption.

Conclusion and Policy Implications
Our results underscore the importance of behavioral factors in driving willingness to adopt insect farming. In terms of policy implications, interventions should target farmers with a risk-averse attitude by emphasizing the benefits of insects as food and addressing other constraints. Additionally, insect farming can be a relevant strategy for households with lower dietary diversity. Enhancing farmers’ knowledge and skills may increase their perceived level of control to engage in insect farming. Religious and community organizations can serve as crucial information channels to promote insect farming.

Speaker: Dr Mohammed Hussen Alemu (University of Copenhagen)

73 FARMERS’ IDENTITIES IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYTEMS: EXPLORING THEIR COMPONENTS IN DIVERSE FARMING SYSTEMS

KEYWORDS
Social sustainability; farm types; professional identities; cultural aspects
INTRODUCTION
The complexity inherent in agrifood systems challenges its sustainable transformation (Lamine, 2015). Studies on sustainability tend to prioritize objective and external indicators, often overlooking the cultural experiences (i.e. values, symbols, identities) which are fundamental to understand agrifood system development (Janker et al., 2019).
Development trajectories of agrifood systems can be classified into two broad types: farms that opt for agro-industrial development adhering to economies of scale based on a productivist paradigm (i.e. entrepreneurial farmers) and multifunctional or post-productivist farms (i.e. peasant farms), based on economies of scope (Huttunen, 2019). However, farm types are quite more diverse (Guarín et al., 2020). Behind every production model lies a system of values, symbols and meanings which forms a part of farmers’ professional identities, and which is transmitted to the next generation by processes of socialisation (Burton, 2004; Letourneau & Davidson, 2022). This ‘system’ underpins farm practices and modes of organisation and gives it coherence and stability when faced with change (Plumecocq et al., 2018). Therefore, farmers’ professional identities play a decisive role in understanding agricultural development in general and the adoption of sustainability goals in particular (e.g. (Burton, 2004; Letourneau & Davidson, 2022).
We explore the components forming farmers’ identities in diverse farming systems and how are valued by them. The aim of the paper is to analyse the emergence of similar rationalities across various types of farms, despite their apparent differences in terms of production and structure. Ultimately, we aim to contribute to (re)designing agricultural policies that facilitate the transition to sustainable systems, considering the inherent diversity of agricultural practice.
METHOD
The research focuses on two study areas: Bajo Cinca, a rural area in Aragon, following a modernisation farming model and Baix Llobregat region in Barcelona, a peri-urban area following a development based on economies of scope. Thirty-one in-depth interviews were conducted with farmers with different profiles. The interviews were analysed using Atlas.ti to identify key components of farmers’ professional identities.
FINDINGS
We identify five key components that shape farmers’ professional identities.
Family farm
There is a self-identification as “family farm”, that appears as something valuable for farmers. However, the value they attach to being a family farm differs not between case studies but within them. For many farmers, when they take over the family farm, they continue the type of farm their parents had. For those, we find a strong symbolic value attached to being a family farm. For others, taking over the farm means a break with the previous generation in the management and the production model of the farm.
Attachment to the fields
The second component of farmer’s professional identities is the attachment to the field and the importance they place on doing agricultural chores. Particularly, they value being in outdoors and the sense of freedom. Therefore, they have a highly negative perception of the increasing amount of time they must spend on bureaucratic tasks or self-commercialization of the product in the case of Bajo Cinca farms. They feel it forces them to change their professional identity from being a “pure” farmer to a “manager”.
Moral economy
Farmers interviewed show a strong market orientation. Many farmers understand profitability in terms of security and stability of their living conditions, not in terms of economic growth. Moreover, beyond economic reasons, the stories show a moral economy, valuing food as a social service and not only as a commodity, despite being in a context of strong commodification of food.
Rural communities
Farmers felt society holds negative stereotypes about agricultural labour. They challenge these stereotypes by presenting themselves as the gatekeepers of the traditional landscape and the food providers of the urban inhabitants. In addition, they experience the threat of larger agricultural companies that displace small farmers in the area. As they do not feel valued by society and fear the further internationalization of the area, there is a strong sense of solidarity among each other.
Environmental sustainability
Environmental sustainability is conceived by some farmers as efficiency and exhaustive control of the production process This is linked with an entrepreneurial professional identity and can be found both in medium and small size farms in Bajo Cinca and Baix Llobregat. While a holistic understanding of sustainability based on agroecological principles is minority is both systems, some farmers carry out different practices that exemplify a middle ground between these two previous conceptualizations.

CONCLUSION
Farmers' professional identities are intricately intertwined with social, economic, environmental, and cultural factors, highlighting the complexity of agrifood systems. The values and meanings of farming are subject to change due to the continuous evolution of agricultural practices on the one hand and in response to changing contexts and challenges they face on the other. This research contributes to demonstrating that the diversity in farmers’ identities does not always align with the diversity of farm types; by contrast, important elements of their professional identities are quite similar between farm types.

REFERENCES
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Plumecocq, G., Debril, T., Duru, M., Magrini, M. B., Sarthou, J. P., & Therond, O. (2018). The plurality of values in sustainable agriculture models: Diverse lock-in and coevolution patterns. Ecology and Society, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09881-230121

Speaker: Dr Elsa Varela (1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Göttingen Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5, D-37073 Göttingen, Germany; 2. European Forest Institute, Governance Programme, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 7, Bonn, D-53113, Germany)

74 Understanding Supports for and Barriers to Collaborating the School Lunch Programme and Local Farms in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand: A SWOT Analysis

Keywords: school lunch programme, local farm, qualitative study, SWOT analysis, Thailand

Introduction: In Thailand, public primary schools provide free lunches for students. However, the increase in food prices has affected the management of the school lunch programme (SLP). Therefore, knowing the options for obtaining fruit and vegetables grown locally for the SLP is crucial if it lowers costs.
Objective: This study aimed to understand the perspectives of school staff and local farmers regarding the supports for and barriers to collaborating local farms with the SLP in Chiang Mai province, Thailand.
Method: This study was conducted in ten public primary schools in the Saraphi and Hangdong districts of Chiang Mai province, Thailand. In-depth interviews were conducted with 11 school staff and three local farmers. The data collected from these interviews were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis with the help of ATLAS.ti software (version 8). The analysis was further conducted using a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis.
Findings: The study found that the availability and accessibility of local farms were strengths in collaborating with the SLP. Participants acknowledged that purchasing locally grown fruit and vegetables was affordable and pesticide-free. However, the local farmers were unable to meet the high daily demand for fruits and vegetables in schools. Additionally, school staff tended to purchase ingredients from local markets rather than directly from local farms, as most ingredients were readily available there. One of the opportunities identified was that some local farmers had their shops at the local markets, while others sold their produce to market vendors. Furthermore, a threat was identified in the fact that most local market vendors sourced their goods from larger markets in Chiangmai City, which resulted in higher prices and pesticide usage.
Conclusion: The study's findings suggest that there are both supports for and barriers to collaborating local farms with the SLP. The main challenge lies in ensuring a daily supply of local fruits and vegetables to support a sustainable school food system. Improvement strategies should focus on addressing this issue.

Speaker: Panrawee Praditsorn (Center for Development Research, University of Bonn)

Gender and Empowerment

75 Smallholder Farming Commercialization and Food Security in Malawi: Do Land Rights and Intrahousehold Bargaining Power Matter?

In Malawi, traditional/customary land rights are engendered where the patrilineal or matrilineal land holding regimes are upheld. In this paper, we investigate the interplay between engendered land rights regimes and intrahousehold bargaining power in dictating the direction of agricultural commercialization, and food security in Malawi. We, firstly, examine the effect of engendered land rights regimes and spouse bargaining power on commercialization of smallholder farming and then, analyze the effect of commercialization on food security factoring in land rights regimes and intrahousehold power. Using round 5 of the Malawi integrated household surveys (IHS), and various econometric models, we find that households under a matrilineal land holding regime are less likely to commercialize, and that an increase in spouse bargaining power increases the likelihood of commercialization. We also find spouse bargaining power to be instrumental in improving food security, especially for households under a matrilineal land holding regime. Interestingly, we find that an increase in commercialization is likely to improve food security for households under matrilineal land holding regime if there is more spouse bargaining power. The outcomes indicate that collaborative decision-making between the household head and spouse holds significant importance in ensuring that resources aimed at enhancing household well-being are directed towards the land assets controlled by women.

Speaker: David Zingwe (University of Malawi)

76 Gender gaps in autonomy over intra-household resources in Peruvian cocoa farming households

Keywords: women’s autonomy, intra-household resource allocation, economic experiment, cocoa, Peru

Women’s autonomy over intra-household resources has been shown to be a lever to achieve better food security and nutrition (Njuki et al. 2022). However, women in patriarchal and patrilineal societies are often less autonomous in decision-making around household resources. A large body of the literature has shown that household decisions are not always based on common preferences and agreement with other members, but rather on the bargaining power of each member (Doss and Quisumbing 2020). Moreover, when women are recipients of external resources, as in the case of some development programs, their decision-making power over them remains tied to their level of autonomy, which in turn depends on their bargaining power within the household (D’Exelle and Ignowski 2022). The fact that sustainability initiatives, such as certification schemes, transfer resources directly to the farmer or household head, rarely a woman, underscores the importance to investigate the bargaining power of women within farming households. Still, despite the proliferation of certification and other supply chain sustainability initiatives, the evidence on women’s autonomy in this value chain segment remains scant. In this study, we use economic experiments to explore women’s autonomy over intra-household resource allocation in the context of certified cocoa farming households in Peru. The study investigates the following research questions: 1) to what extent women are less autonomous over external resources than men and 2) to what extent higher levels of specialization affects this autonomy.

Between April and July 2023, we interviewed cacao-farming households that were members of cooperatives in three cocoa-producing regions in Peru. Through a two-stage, stratified sampling, we first selected ten cooperatives with multiple certification schemes and other sustainability initiatives. Second, we stratified the cooperative lists by sex and randomly selected women and men members. Our final sample consists of 566 households, of which 484 are dual-adult households and 82 are female-adult-only households. We carried out a household-level and farm-level survey with the cocoa manager in each household, as well as separate individual-level surveys with the cocoa manager and other primary male/female in the household, most of the time the partner, resulting in 1,050 respondents.

Before starting the surveys, we randomly select one individual among dual-adult households to participate in two economic experiments in order to elicit, respectively, 1) participant’s willingness to pay to avoid disclosing receipt of a participation fee to their spouse and 2) participant’s willingness to pay to avoid transferring a participation fee to their spouse. In the first experiment, the participant receives a private participation fee that can be chosen in cash, in kind, or as a voucher from the cocoa cooperative. Then, the participant is given the option to increase the participation fee and, if they wish, to also change the payment method, in exchange for disclosing receipt of the fee to their spouse. By varying the level of increase in the participation fee, we measure participant's minimum willingness to pay to avoid disclosing the participation fee. In the second experiment, the participant also receives a participation fee and can chose from the different payment methods. However, this time the fee is public, i.e., revealed to their spouse. Then, the participant is given the option to increase the participation fee in exchange for transferring the fee to their spouse, who may again choose a different payment method if desired. By varying the level of increase, we measure participant's minimum willingness to pay to keep the fee for themselves. Although participants make decisions in both experiments, only one of the two is randomly selected at the end to define the payoff. We run OLS and Probit regressions for the analysis of differences in the willingness to pay between men and women, controlling for individual (income, education), household (household size, wealth status), and farm (land area, number of cash and food crops cultivated) characteristics. Then, to assess to what extent cocoa production specialization affects women’s autonomy over the participation fee, we use the share of land devoted to cocoa production and marketing as a cocoa specialization indicator and include it as main explanatory variable in an OLS regression on women’s and men’s willingness to pay. Again, we control for a battery of individual, household, and farm characteristics, as well as using agroecological, spatial data to correct for potential endogeneity issues.

Preliminary results show that women are, on average, more willing to pay to avoid disclosing the fee to their spouse than men. None of the men interviewed were willing to pay any amount to avoid disclosing the fee. This is line with previous literature finding that when resources are disclosed in the household, women have lower autonomy and, therefore, would rather pay to keep it private (D’Exelle and Ignowski 2022). We also find that women are more willing to pay to keep the fee for themselves than men. This suggests that women’s decision-making power is hindered when resources are pooled. Based on previous studies that found cash crop specialization further exacerbating gender inequalities (Fischer and Qaim 2012), we expect subsequent analyses to show that women are less autonomous (i.e., have a higher willingness to pay in both experiments) in households with higher cocoa specialization.

This study contributes to a better understanding of women’s autonomy in the context of cash crop production using both experimental and survey-based primary data. Such nuance evidence can inform intervention aiming at promoting women’s empowerment and gender equality.

D’Exelle, Ben; Ignowski, Liz (2022): Intra-Household Resource Allocation in Rural Tanzania: Why Women Care about Disclosure. In the Journal of Development Studies 58 (10), pp. 2021–2043.
Doss, Cheryl R.; Quisumbing, Agnes R. (2020): Understanding rural household behavior: Beyond Boserup and Becker. In Agricultural economics (Amsterdam, Netherlands) 51 (1), pp. 47–58.
Fischer, Elisabeth; Qaim, Matin (2012): Gender, agricultural commercialization, and collective action in Kenya. In Food Security 4 (3), pp. 441–453.
Njuki, Jemimah; Eissler, Sarah; Malapit, Hazel; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; Bryan, Elizabeth; Quisumbing, Agnes (2022): A review of evidence on gender equality, women’s empowerment, and food systems. In Global Food Security 33, p. 100622.

Speaker: Simone Santalucia

77 Gender Aspects and Sustainable Land Management Practices: A Path Modelling Analysis for Germany

Humanity faces the challenge to produce sufficient food, fuel and fibre at contested natural resources for a growing world population. Intensive farming, driven by economic pressures, leads to adverse environmental effects. Transitioning to sustainable farming is crucial, however, success of policies like the EU's Common Agricultural Policy in promoting sustainable practices is limited. Recent studies highlight the importance of social factors in adoption, including social norms, gender effects, and identity conflicts, though these aspects are often underrepresented in empirical investigations in the global North.

This paper targets at closing this gap and investigates potential gender effects in uptake decisions for more sustainable farming practices. Based on reviewed literature, we see environmental concern and networking behaviour as two important antecedents for decisions to adopt sustainable farming practices with gendered structures.

First, environmental concern, considered as environmental attitude, can be seen as an evaluation of the future behaviour to engage in pro-environmental farming practice (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975). We expect: Expressed environmental concern is positively associated with intentions to adopt or adoption of sustainable practices (conjecture 1a). In this context, tendencies of women with stronger environmental concern and pro-environmental behaviour, relative to men, were reported (Zelezny, Chua and Aldrich, 2000; Desrochers et al., 2019). Noted as a strong predictor of pro-environmental behaviour, we expect: The relation between environmental concern and adoption (intention) of sustainable practices is moderated by gender (conjecture 1b).

Second, networking and cooperation can generate social capital and social pressure, catalyzing the adoption of sustainable practices (Knowler and Bradshaw, 2007). The relation of networking and cooperation to social norms as antecedent to intention and behavior frames conjecture 2a: Networking attitudes are positively related to the intention to adopt or adoption of sustainable practises. As networks offering access to social capital can be male-dominated at low diversity rates, gender can moderate the influence of social norms in decision-making (McDonald, 2011). We thus expect: The relation between networking attitudes and adoption (intention) of sustainable practices is moderated by gender (conjecture 2b).

A partial-least-square structural equation model, in a reflective mode, is applied to investigate the relationship of the established conjectures ‘environmental concern’ and ‘networking attitudes’ to the ‘adoption decision of sustainable intensification’ under potential moderation effects by gender. Potential control variables include demographic information and farm characteristics. We estimate one model (1) concentrating on conjectures 1a and 2a, whereas a second model further incorporates the moderation effect of ‘gender’ (conjectures 1b and 2b).

We apply existing survey data from 2017 covering the northern German peatland area (see Weltin et al., 2019). In total, 464 farmers filled out the questionnaire; with 410 responses stating if and which sustainable practices are applied, among which 393 were willing to indicate gender. With the questionnaire being designed to shed light on transformation processes, we use the data set to investigate the gender dimension in the adoption of sustainable practices that relate to the concept of sustainable intensification. Therefore, we rely on the binary self-indication of female and male given the survey design.

To construct ‘adoption’, we generate two intensity variables, as the number of sustainable agronomic practices and regional integration activities, respectively. The practices in the field of agronomic development include: reduced tillage for grassland and for arable land, intercropping, cultivation of legumes and of minimum five crops, flower strips and precision farming. For regional integration, the activities include: exchange of resources with regional farms, membership for joint machinery use, direct marketing, marketing with regional label and cooperation with regional interest groups.

‘Environmental concern’ is constructed by environmentally-friendly farming practices, such as organic farming and voluntary adoption of agri-environmental schemes (AES) before 2013 (long-term participation), currently and the number of adopted measures. The social dimension of environmental concern is reflected in the indicators: attachment to business region, regional pioneer in innovation adoption and self-appraisal in conservationist attitude; as a stronger local identity positively contributes to environmental concern. Regarding the construct ‘networking attitude’, indicators reflect social capital and collectivism, as a catalyst for adoption. These are: the frequency of asking for advice, of coordinating operational decision with neighbours, of consulting with agricultural advisory services, the importance of access to knowledge, of the cooperation with land use representatives, private and social contacts, other farmers as well the number of memberships in e.g., parties.

Our preliminary results show some evidence for conjectures 1a (β = 0.323; f^2 = 0.132) and 2a (β = 0.284; f^2 = 0.103). This suggests that ‘environmental concern’ and ‘networking attitude’ directly and positively influence the adoption (intention) of sustainable practices for our sample. Effect sizes are, however, rather small and thus, relevance of the structural paths must be reviewed. Our preliminary results did not display empirical evidence for C1b (β = 0.016; f^2 = 0.000) nor C2b (β = 0.009; f^2 = 0.000), although path coefficients are positive but small.

Given the preliminary nature, these results should be considered with caution. However, the empirical approach seems promising for investigating the roles of other underrepresented groups concerning natural ecosystems to support policy design in fostering uptake of sustainable practices.

References
Desrochers, J. E., Albert, G., Milfont, T. L., Kelly, B. and Arnocky, S. (2019). Does personality mediate the relationship between sex and environmentalism? Personality and Individual Differences 147: 204–213.
Fishbein, M. and Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Knowler, D. and Bradshaw, B. (2007). Farmers’ adoption of conservation agriculture: A review and synthesis of recent research. Food Policy 32(1): 25–48.
McDonald, S. (2011). What’s in the "old boys" network? Accessing social capital in gendered and racialized networks. Social Networks 33(4): 317–330.
Weltin, M., Zasada, I., Piorr, A., Debolini, M., Geniaux, G., Miranda, D. O., Perez, O. M., Pellegrin, C., Schulp, C. J. and Marco, L. T. (2019). Milestones M3.1 and M3.2 Survey Design and Database - Final Version, ZALF.
Zelezny, L. C., Chua, P.-P. and Aldrich, C. (2000). New Ways of Thinking about Environmentalism: Elaborating on Gender Differences in Environmentalism. Journal of Social Issues 56(3): 443–457.

Speaker: Marlene Kionka

78 Agency & behavior change in agri-food systems transformation – a review of agroecology initiatives

Introduction
Systems-level transformation is increasingly recognized as necessary to improve the sustainability, equity, and resilience of agri-food systems. The CGIAR initiative on Agroecology utilizes a system transformation approach in alignment with (Gliessman, 2021) and the 13 principles of agroecology outlined by Nicolétis et al. (2019). This approach requires new understandings of actor agency and behavior change processes that enable systems change. To provide these new understandings for approaches and investments in agroecological transitions, this study presents a novel framework and lessons from past experiences in similar transitions that required changes in behaviors and agency of food system actors.
The specific objectives of this study were to: i) understand how agroecology-relevant projects, government and/or donor programs, community initiatives, and social movements (collectively referred to as “initiatives” in this report) have approached behavior change and agency of food system actors for agri-food systems transformation, ii) identify common assumptions on behavior change and agency that underpinned the initiatives’ design, and iii) recommend adjustments to the Theories of Change, assumptions, and processes in initiative design and implementation to enhance the roles of actor agency and behavior change processes in systems change.

Methods
To address the study objectives, we drew upon 239 initiatives that included agroecology-relevant projects, government or donor programs (220), community initiatives (12), and social movements (7) from Tunisia, Zimbabwe, Peru, India, and Kenya. We developed an inventory of initiatives through review of published and grey literature, such as websites and reports. We then characterized these initiatives in terms of the type of initiative, time period of implementation, and the focal agroecological principles addressed.
To further investigate approaches to changing behaviors and agency, we selected 29 initiatives as case studies based on the following criteria: engagement with multiple and diverse agroecological principles, geographical scale of reach, diverse representation of initiative type and objective, relevance or impact as reported by local experts, and some country-specific criteria. We interviewed the designers and/or implementers of these case study initiatives to collect additional data, including the perceived factors that contributed to success or failure to achieve the intended behavior changes.
We developed and applied a conceptual framework for behavior change and agency of food system actors in agri-food systems to synthesize patterns across the case studies. After identifying the key assumptions underlying the theory of change in each case study, we analyzed whether these assumptions were supported by the initiative results. The initiative results used for this analysis were primarily derived from interviews with key informants on perceived successes and/or failures in achieving intended changes. Where available, we also used actual reports of initiative outcomes from the interviews and initiative documents.

Key results
The initiatives most often targeted agroecology principles related to resilience: biodiversity (71% of initiatives), soil health (67%), economic diversification (60%), and synergy (49%); the exception was animal health which was among the least applied (18%) of the 13 principles. One principle related to social equity was also frequently applied (co-creation of knowledge; 44%), while connectivity (31%), social values and diets (31%), and fairness (25%) were given lower priority
All 29 in-depth case studies targeted the behaviors of producers such as farmers, fishers, pastoralists, and other food producers both as individuals and groups. To a lesser extent, initiatives intended to change actions of private sector actors (including retailers, input sellers, and actors in post-harvest activities), extension and education actors (including national agricultural extension agents and researchers), communities (including individual and groups of natural resource users), governance actors (including policy makers and donors) and consumers.
The theories of change of 45 % of the in-depth case studies expressed the objective to change on-farm practices of producers. Two Fifth intended to strengthen relations of producers to value chain actors. When behaviors of other actor groups were targeted, it was often to influence the producers’ behavior.
Looking deeper into strategies how behavior was expected to be influenced reveals key assumptions about behavioral drivers. Technical assistance, trainings, and demonstrations were the most common approaches used to target producers’ knowledge, attitudes, and eventually behavior. 55% of cases promoted agency, entrepreneurship, and/or inclusion and equity on the individual or group level in order to widen the opportunity space especially of weaker and marginalized actors. The absence or inverse of the alignment between the promoted behaviors and actors’ needs and constraints was most frequently reported as impeding behavior change, for example: the poor suitability of introduced practices or technologies, or farmer disinterest or resistance to behavior change. It should be seen in this context that 46% of initiatives were perceived to have missed key entry points, thus impeding the intended behavior changes.

Conclusions
We find that past initiatives related to agroecology have focused primarily on influencing individual behavioral drivers, and principally producer knowledge. Much less common are efforts that support stakeholders in changing mechanisms in the realm of economic and governance systems that expand actors’ opportunities. Systemic approaches to influence agency and behavior change were least often applied. This contrasts with the perception of designers and implementers that factors related to governance including policies, markets, and partner collaboration were critical for the success or failure of their initiatives.

References
Gliessman, S. R. (2021). Package price agroecology: The ecology of sustainable food systems. CRC press.

Nicolétis, É., Caron, P., El Solh, M., Cole, M., Fresco, L. O., Godoy-Faúndez, A., Kadleciková, M., Kennedy, E., Khan, M., & Li, X. (2019). Agroecological and other innovative approaches for sustainable agriculture and food systems that enhance food security and nutrition. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security.

Speaker: Rachel Voss (WorldFish)

Sustainability Standards

79 Sustainable Food System Transformation in the Netherlands: a multi-level perspective

Key words: transition, transformation, governance, barriers

Objective
Western food systems are highly productive but also face substantial sustainability challenges, including ongoing biodiversity loss, climate change, and diet-related diseases (El Bilali et al., 2021; Fanzo et al., 2021). These sustainability challenges find their origin in a series of connectivity problems, such as (Runhaar, 2024):
• A disconnect between food production and local and regional environmental conditions, resulting in pollution and biodiversity loss.
• A disconnect between food and feed production locations, leading to deforestation, climate change, and food insecurity.
• A disconnect between places where food is produced and where it is consumed, leading to an alienation of consumers with farmers and agricultural landscapes and their values.
• More generally, a disconnect between food prices and their societal costs, and a disconnect between actors that benefit from modern food systems and actors that are faced with their burdens.

Sustainable food system transformation therefore requires rethinking the physical, socio-economic, and institutional connections in food systems. Many farmers for instance are limited in their choices about what to produce, where, how, and for whom due to their dependency on large agrifood companies (Hendrickson, 2015; see also Williams et al., 2023). Community Supported Agriculture in contrasts brings together farmers and consumers and enables more sustainable food production at a local scale (Egli et al., 2023). And agroecology, regenerative agriculture, and ‘nature-inclusive’ agriculture aim to reconcile food production with biodiversity, whereas agroecology also simultaneously aims to “empower[s] producers and communities as key agents of change” (Gliessman, 2020: 547). (Runhaar, 2024)

Establishing new connections and dismantling existing, unsustainable ones is necessary but problematic, because food systems are highly resistant to change (Oliver et al., 2018; Runhaar, 2021). The Dutch food system is exemplary in this respect. The ‘nitrogen crisis’ has been ongoing for almost 5 years now (Stokstad, 2019), putting a halt on new housing construction, infrastructural, and other projects. The Netherlands most probably will also face a ‘water crisis’ as the Water Framework Directive’s water quality objectives will probably not be achieved by 2027. This is to a large extent due to excessive nutrient and pesticides discharge from agriculture (Van Gaalen et al., 2020). But despite these pressures and even though in 2021 the then new national government committed to an ‘agricultural transition’ to address the ‘substantial challenges’ of biodiversity, climate, and water, which is repeatedly stated since , with a fund of almost 25 billion euro made available to support a transformation, the food system has remained unchanged. Intensive, high input-high output agriculture remains the default model, efforts to agree on a new perspective for Dutch agriculture have failed , and driving logics and power positions in agrifood value chains as well as agricultural policies have remained unchanged (e.g., Runhaar, 2022).

In this paper, we employ the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) from sustainability transition studies to further our understanding of food system stability and change, focusing on the Netherlands.
Method
Within the MLP, regime change - substantial changes in “the semi-coherent set of rules that orient and coordinate the activities of the social groups that reproduce the various elements of sociotechnical systems” (Geels, 2011, p. 5) – is crucial to enable and promote fundamental change in systems such as food systems. Regime change can be triggered by macro-level developments at ‘landscape level’ (e.g., economic crises) or by alternative companies, practices, or innovations (‘niches’) that challenge incumbent industries and other regime actors (Geels, 2011). Increasingly, the literature considers the deliberate decline of unsustainable regime configurations by means of targeted interventions into the stability of such regimes rather than disruption by novelty as an emerging frontier for the study and governance of sustainability transitions (Rosenbloom and Rinscheid, 2020).

We will address the following research questions:
1. What obstacles, particularly stemming from the incumbent regime, hinder the uptake and upscaling of niche innovations?
2. What is needed and what is done to overcome obstacles, and to what extent and how do niche innovations contribute to regime destabilisation?
3. What mechanisms keep the incumbent food regime in its current state and hinder, but potentially also facilitate, regime change? Particularly, to what extent and how have landscape pressures triggered regime change?

We will combine insights from Runhaar’s ongoing research on the Dutch food system since 2015 (e.g., Runhaar et al., 2020), (interim) findings from a recently finalised PhD project (Van Oers) and four ongoing PhD research projects (Bello Cartagena, Offringa, Pustilnik, Van Doorm), and one ongoing master thesis research project (Remorie). All these projects focus on sustainable food system transformation in the Netherlands from different perspectives and covering different agricultural sectors.

Findings/conclusion
For question 1, we will draw from Bello Cartagena’s research on agroecology in the Netherlands and the role of networks in building capacities to nurture and upscale agroecological practices, as well as from Pustilnik’s and Remorie’s research on the adoption of herb-rich grasslands in dairy farming, and Van Doorm’s research on new regional governance arrangements for accelerating the mission towards circular agriculture. Interim findings related to question 2 will be presented from Bello Cartagena’s research and from Van Oers’ research on unlearning as a strategy for agricultural sustainability transformation in the Netherlands (Van Oers, 2024). Some preliminary findings regarding question 3 will be drawn from the research by Bello Cartagena, Van Doorm, and Pustilnik, and from Offringa’s research on promoting intensified contribution from the agricultural sector to the Water Framework Directive water quality objectives, and Runhaar’s earlier research on the promotion of grazing practices in dairy farming.

Speaker: Hens Runhaar (Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development)

80 Strengthening Rwandan Coffee Agriculture: The Effect of Information Sources on Development Resilience

Introduction
Rural development remains crucial to enhancing welfare and eradicating poverty, yet, numerous obstacles, such as climate change and market failures, hinder the achievement of these goals globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Shimeles et al. 2018). Hence, strategies that enable farmers to strengthen their resilience, including those related to disseminating information, are key to improving their well-being (McKune et al. 2018).
Improving information access can help farmers to become more resilient by improving their adaptation to changing contexts (Ramos-Sandoval et al. 2016). For example, climate information can help farmers adjust their practices to seasonal climatic projections and increase production (Patt et al. 2005). Moreover, access to market information is associated with greater integration of farmers into markets, positively affecting their income and food security levels (Dorward et al. 2004). Nonetheless, the effective and efficient dissemination of information presents a significant challenge in developing nations.
Identifying which sources of information are most effective in delivering the message is essential in designing policies that aim to support farmers through the dissemination of information because farmers perceive some sources as more reliable than others (Amoak et al. 2023) and because some information requires tools and practices that only specific sources of information can provide. For example, information delivered in the form of extension services increases technical efficiency in Bangladesh (Biswas et al. 2021), and Short Message-based Services (SMS) increase agricultural productivity in SSA (Samson Sennuga et al. 2020).
Most studies focusing on the type or sources of information and rural development primarily seek to understand the effect of information and communication technologies on adopting new agricultural practices, especially those related to climate change and smart agriculture (Boyd et al. 2013; Amadu 2022). Although some suggest that information is positively associated with resilience (Boyd et al. 2013; Amoak et al. 2023), to the best of our knowledge, the effect of type or source of information on resilience has never been measured empirically.
Given the increasing uncertainties in the market, climate, and political scenarios, timely and effective access to adequate information is critical to enable farmers to cope with and adapt to adverse shocks and stressors. The main research questions of our paper are: (1) What are the most effective sources of information to improve resilience among coffee farmers in Rwanda? (2) How can different types of information be better communicated and delivered to enhance farmers’ resilience? (3) Do certifications play a role in increasing resilience through improving access to information?
Finally, our study contributes to the research literature as follows: (1) provides empirical evidence using a unique panel dataset from coffee farmers in Rwanda; (2) explores different information channels to capture access and quality of information to then measure long-term welfare effects (captured by resilience) and short-term welfare effect (captured by per capita income); (3) uses a novel method to measure resilience.

Data and Methodology
We follow the conceptual framework for resilience developed by Barrett and Constas (2014) and the subsequent conditional moments-based approach introduced by Cissé and Barrett (2018) to explore the relationship between farmers’ development resilience and the source and type of information they can access.
Cissé and Barrett (2018) propose to first estimate a conditional moment function for well-being as a polynomial function of lagged well-being and a vector of household characteristics, including potential shock exposures. Then, this approach requires computing the conditional mean and the conditional variance to estimate the household-and-period-specific conditional well-being probability density function and the associated complementary cumulative density function (ccdf). Finally, we can use the ccdf to estimate the probability of a household reaching some normative minimum well-being standard, representing resilience. Thus, this approach relies on panel data and a normative threshold representing a minimum well-being standard.
Our paper uses the national poverty line as the normative threshold. The resilience model includes control variables, the farmers’ certification status, and variables indicating whether farmers received information on crop production or markets, as well as the sources, namely neighbors, mobile phones, radio, extension services, cooperatives, or exporters. Our analysis relies on primary data collected from a two-phase stratified random sampling panel survey involving 837 farmers from five districts within Rwanda’s coffee belt. The data collection was conducted between November and February across the years 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, with the stratification criterion being the certification status of farmers.

Key Results
Our results first show that 93% and 98% of the coffee farmers in our sample have access to crop and market information, respectively, but they differ in the sources of information that they use. These results imply that the challenge remains in the quality of information instead of its access. Moreover, our resilience model also suggests that the quality of information, namely the sources that farmers use to get information, is more important in improving development resilience than the information they obtain, meaning that the association between development resilience and the type of information is positively or negatively defined depending mainly on where the information comes from. For example, when farmers obtain information from informal and non-official sources, such as neighbors, this tends to be negatively associated with development resilience. When farmers obtain information from extension services or mobile phones, which are common instruments for delivering official information among coffee farmers in Rwanda, they report higher development resilience. Besides mobile phones and extension services, cooperatives and exporters are important for crop information.
Additionally, our results show a positive association between certification status and increased resilience, as it represents a mechanism of market integration and information channels. Finally, information sources affect household per capita income and development resilience. These last results suggest that information sources are associated with short-term household welfare (income) and long-term household welfare (resilience).

Speaker: Bruno Paz (University of Göttingen)

81 Price stability or volatility? The role of certification in Peruvian’s food commodity markets

Keywords: Voluntary sustainability standards, Private standards, Fairtrade, Organic, GlobalGAP

Introduction

The agri-food system faces numerous sustainability challenges, necessitating urgent transformation (Diaz-Bonilla et al., 2023). Amidst increasing price uncertainty, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and geopolitical instability, addressing these issues becomes increasingly complex. Recent events, such as the 2022 Ukraine conflict, have revived global concerns over agricultural market prices and volatility, echoing concerns from the food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 (Osendarp et al., 2022). Past responses to such crises emphasized curbing food price volatility rather than food price levels, as reflected in the global political priority to ‘limit extreme food price volatility’ of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations General Assembly, 2015). This emphasis is due to universal disruptive impact of volatility on both producers and consumers, whereas high food prices impact countries unevenly, with negative repercussions for consumers but positive for agricultural producers (FAO et al., 2011; HLPE, 2011). The destabilizing effects of price fluctuations can hinder planning and investment decisions for producers, while consumers face challenges in budgeting and ensuring food security (Díaz-Bonilla, 2016).

The role of various market policies on price volatility remains a contentious debate in agricultural economics and the general public. So far, empirical evidence has focused on the effect of public policies on price volatility (Brander et al., 2023; Pieters and Swinnen, 2016). Private market-based instruments, such as voluntary sustainability standards (VSS), have hardly received attention in this literature and debate, despite the large focus on price and income effects of VSS, pointing towards moderately positive effects (Meemken, 2020; Oya et al., 2018; Traldi, 2021). VSS, such as Organic, Fairtrade and GlobalGAP, are market-based instruments aimed at improving and ensuring sustainability in global food production and trade. VSS are becoming increasingly prominent given the growing consumer demand for certified commodities, which now cover around 8% of global cropland (Kemper et al., 2023).

Conceptually, VSS adoption could affect price volatility for certified producers by influencing both the supply and demand sides. Regarding demand dynamics, VSS could enhance price stability by reducing information asymmetries, but might also increase price volatility by covering niche markets susceptible to shifts in consumer sentiment. Regarding supply dynamics, VSS implementation typically involves a higher level of coordination, investments, and specialization. This could render the VSS system more susceptible to supply-chain disruptions, unless there are clear long-term contracts or minimum prices between buyers and producers, which only Fairtrade requires. Supply-chain fluctuations may exacerbate in the context of reported oversupply problems (Boonaert and Maertens, 2023; de Janvry et al., 2015). Hence, we hypothesize that VSS adoption might increase price volatility unless existing contracts work well enough to reduce the risk of supply-chain disruptions.

Objective

In this study, we address the research gap by offering novel evidence on the effect of VSS adoption on producer price volatility. Additionally, we explore heterogenous effects among farm sizes, a dimension underappreciated in the scientific literature to date. Previous research has highlighted the importance and potential of certification in the large farm sector (Meemken, 2021). Certified large farms differ from certified small farms in the both the types of commodities produced and associated VSS (fruits and vegetables vs tropical commodities) and the market structure (more vertical coordination structures vs horizontal).

Method

We utilize a nationally representative farm survey of Peru spanning five years (2015-2019), covering multiple crops and VSS (Organic, Fairtrade, GlobalGAP, and various health and safety certifications). Employing fixed effects analyses, we account for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity and various time-varying observed control variables. Price volatility is measured as the coefficient of variation over consecutive years, based on self-reported producer prices. VSS adoption is measured as the self-reported certification status at the farm-level and linked with data from standard setting organizations to derive crop-level certification status. To distinguish between small and large farms, we rely on the Peruvian government’s threshold of 50 ha. Peru serves as an interesting case study due the country’s size, wide agrodiversity and surge in certification coverage over the past decade (ITC, 2024).

Findings

Overall, we find that VSS adoption increases price volatility of certified farms by 6%, with the increase primarily driven by large farms. Specifically, we observe a 16% increase in price volatility for certified large farms, while no significant effect is found for certified small farms. The heightened volatility among large farms can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the certified fruits and vegetable sector witnessed large demand variability during our study period, notably evident during the wave of interest in “superfoods”, especially avocados (Gandhi et al., 2023). This surge led to heightened competition among new entrants attracted by the increased demand, thereby affecting supply dynamics. Moreover, certified large farms typically exhibit stronger vertical coordination with limited supplier diversity, rendering them more susceptible to supply chain distortions (Dalheimer et al., 2023). Furthermore, certified large farms predominantly hold GlobalGAP certification, which entails stringent and evolving requirements and are almost de facto mandatory to export fruits and vegetables to the EU and US (Henson and Humphrey, 2010). Any disruptions or discrepancies in meeting standard requirements could disrupt supply chains and lead to price fluctuations. In contrast, certified small farms, mainly Organic or Fairtrade certified, have the flexibility to sell part of their certified produce in non-certified (less volatile) markets, a strategy which could be employed during periods of oversupply, thus mitigating price volatility to some extent.

Conclusion

The extant literature on VSS has focused on price and income effects, often finding moderately positive effects, but this literature has not considered how stable these gains are, despite the importance of price volatility. Our findings underscore the importance of studying certification effects for both small and large farms, contrary to prevailing smallholder bias in the literature. Moving forward, policymakers and stakeholders must carefully consider the implications of VSS adoption, especially for large farms, which play a crucial role in global agricultural production. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying factors influencing price volatility of certified large farms and to identify potential avenues for mitigating its adverse effects on producers.

Speaker: Eva Boonaert (KU Leuven)

82 Voluntary sustainability standards and their welfare effects: The importance of operationalization in the Indonesian cocoa sector

KEYWORDS: Voluntary Sustainability Standards; Institutional context; Producer welfare; Cocoa; Indonesia

Introduction

Although voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) promise to deliver improved sustainability outcomes, recent review studies (1-3) reveal that socio-economic outcomes of VSS are ambiguous and that contextual factors are key in determining the sustainability impacts of certification. Impacts not only differ between VSS and crops, but also critically depend on the institutional and economic environment, such as prevailing livelihood situations, market structures, and cooperative or farmer group organization. Yet, the existing impact literature is strongly biased towards two VSS (Fairtrade and organic certification), one crop (coffee), and the Latin-American and African continents (2-4). In addition, only a small number of studies explicitly examine the role of contextual factors in shaping VSS outcomes. Some studies compare sustainability outcomes over different certification schemes in a single setting (e.g.5-7), while others examine the impact of a single VSS over different settings (countries and/or crops) (e.g.8-10). Institutional factors influencing certification outcomes are most often disregarded or ill-described (2). At the same time, scholars (11,12) argue that the operationalization of VSS influences standard compliance by producers, and as a result, their outcomes. Although many VSS set out specific rules on training, audits, and/or premium payments, the ‘operators’ who implement a VSS certificate might differ in capacities and interests, and as a result, the operationalization of a single VSS might differ substantively between different certification schemes. Yet, the heterogeneous effect of VSS operationalization has slipped empirical attention till date.

Objective

In this paper, we investigate how the operationalization of VSS shape their effectiveness in delivering improved welfare effects. To do so, we study the impact of two VSS, Rainforest Alliance (RA) and Cocoa Life (CL), on different economic performance indicators for cocoa producers in South-Sulawesi, Indonesia. We exploit the fact that the regional cocoa sector is dominated by four multinational food-processing companies, each of which institute a VSS scheme as part of their sustainability program. Mars, Cargill, and OFI operate RA certification schemes (hereafter A/B/C-RA), albeit operationalized differently; while Barry Callebaut implements a Cocoa Life program, Mondelez’ in-house VSS (hereafter D-CL).
Our contribution to the VSS-literature is two-fold. First, we expand the evidence base of the VSS impact literature by covering two VSS that are under-represented in the impact literature in a sector and region that also have received relatively little attention. Second, we look at VSS operationalization as a new source of institutional heterogeneity shaping sustainability outcomes of VSS.

Method

We use a mixed methods approach. We rely on primary survey data from 598 cocoa producers in three districts in South-Sulawesi, collected between October and December 2022. We applied a purposive sampling strategy that allows us to identify heterogeneous effects between four VSS operationalization schemes. We empirically investigate how the effect of VSS certification for producers differs between certification schemes, in terms of intermediate (cocoa yields, prices, and costs per hectare) and final economic performance indicators (cocoa income, return to land and household labor, and total and per adult equivalent household income). We study the overall impact of VSS certification, not distinguishing by certification scheme, as well as the heterogeneous impact over the different VSS schemes. We control for endogeneity issues, arising from (unobservable) selection bias and reverse causality, using an inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjustment estimator and heteroskedasticity-based internal instruments (Lewbel, 2012). We complement this quantitative data with qualitative data, collected through over 50 key-informant interviews and four focus group discussions with certified producers, to investigate how the operationalization differs between the four VSS schemes.

Findings

Despite finding some evidence supporting improved price effects, overall certification, not distinguishing by VSS scheme, does not seem to carry any significant income, nor yield or cost effects. However, these insignificant overall effects hide heterogenous effects by VSS scheme. At the intermediate welfare level, we find a significant positive yield effect of certification under the B-RA scheme, a positive cost effect for the A-RA certification scheme, while certification under the A-RA, B-RA and D-CL seem to yield improved price effects. However, when controlling for the form of sale (wet vs dry) this increased price effect only remains for the B-RA scheme.
Further towards the final welfare indicators, we note that these intermediate effects carry limited income effects. We only find significant positive effects of certification on cocoa income and return to land under the B-RA scheme. Yet, this increased cocoa income effect does not translate to improved return to household labor, signaling increased labor requirements, nor to improved household income effects.
Interviews revealed that the increased price effect under the B-RA could potentially be attributed to the fact that the B-RA operator pays certified producers the required RA price premium in cash while under the A-RA and C-RA premiums are (most often) paid in kind. Surprisingly, in-kind premiums under A-RA are linked to increased costs. Although all operators organize (at least) yearly group training and one-to-one coaching sessions – often focused on GAP practices - , these only seem to improve yields under the B-RA scheme. One notable difference between the schemes is that B-RA outsources its training program to a specialized company with strong roots in the region. This intermediary structure might be more effective in transferring knowledge to producers compared to the training operationalization in the other VSS schemes, which rely on their own field staff and more cascading learning structures.

Conclusions

We draw two main conclusions. First, we highlight the importance of the operationalization of VSS for their sustainability outcomes as even for a single VSS, standard operationalization differs substantially, shaping economic certification implications for producers differently. Our findings emphasize the responsibility of companies in generating improved sustainability outcomes in certification schemes by way of advantageous VSS operationalization. Secondly, although intermediate welfare improvements are found, the potential of certification in the Indonesian cocoa sector to improve producer welfare seems limited, while conversion of cocoa plantations to other land uses is increasing. If processor companies want to secure a steady supply of cocoa beans, more structural change, beyond certification, is required.

Speaker: Janne Bemelmans (Division of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Leuven (KUL))

Food System

83 Transformation of the global food system The holistic approach of the Food System Economics Commission

Keywords
Global food system transformation, welfare analysis, hidden costs, policy bundles

Introduction
The hidden costs of the global food system are estimated to be $15 trillion USD 2020 PPP per year (Ruggeri Laderchi et al. 2024), equivalent to 12 percent of global GDP in 2020 and substantially larger than the economic contribution of the approximately $10 trillion USD market value of the global food system (World Bank 2021). The global food system's current trajectory has exacerbated climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and soil degradation. The AFOLU sector, contributes to 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2023), while the entire agri-food value chain adds to one-third of global GHG emissions (Crippa et al. 2021). Addressing these issues requires a fundamental global food system transformation to reconcile trade-offs and foster synergies across health, social inclusion, and environmental dimensions (Gaupp et al. 2021), especially as approximately 1 billion people suffer from undernourishment, and 2 billion are overweight or obese, while 3.1 billion couldn't afford a healthy diet in 2020 (FAO et al. 2022). A sustainable transformation of food systems is not only vital for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in line with the Paris Climate Agreement but also essential for achieving the SDGs while staying within Planetary Boundaries.

Objective
The Food System Economics Commission (FSEC), an independent, scientific commission, has outlined five operational goals: (1) consumption of healthy diets by all; (2) fostering strong livelihoods throughout the food system; (3) protection of intact lands and restoration of degraded lands; (4) promoting environmentally sustainable food production; and (5) building resilient food systems that ensure food security and nutrition in the short and long term. Along these five targets, various research questions have been posed: What would it take to make our food systems inclusive, health-enhancing, and environmentally sustainable by 2050? Is such a global transformation economically beneficial? What policy levers can facilitate this transformation? And what obstacles could impede progress?

Method
FSEC has examined the potential for transforming food systems using economic modelling, literature reviews, and case studies, focusing on two science-based pathways until 2050 evaluated using the MAgPIE framework (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment, Dietrich et al. 2019; Bodirsky et al. 2023).
The "Current Trends" (CT) pathway continues existing food system trajectories. In this scenario, global GDP doubles by 2050 with uneven distribution, poverty persists, and food production meets demand for a population of 9.5 billion, yet 640 million remain undernourished. Unhealthy diets lead to a surge in obesity, and climate change mitigation efforts fall short due to insufficient international cooperation, resulting in continued degradation of ecosystems.
The "Food System Transformation" (FST) pathway presents an alternative future where countries commit to an inclusive, health-enhancing, and environmentally sustainable food system. Over 30 years, nations move away from unhealthy diets towards plant-based foods, ending hunger by 2050 for 640 million people. Vast natural areas are preserved, with forest expansion programs adding 2.5 million hectares yearly until 2050. By 2040, agriculture becomes a net carbon sink, aided by tech advancements. Poverty in agriculture is addressed, ensuring fair wages for 400 million workers. Through diet changes and carbon tax redistribution, food remains affordable.
FSEC employs two methods to assess the economic impact of food system transformation: a top-down approach measures changes in societal welfare, while a bottom-up approach quantifies hidden costs avoided, such as those related to health, environment, and poverty. Together, these methods offer a comprehensive understanding of the global economic implications of food system transformation.

Findings
FSEC demonstrates the feasibility and economic benefits of adopting the FST. The transition to this approach positively impacts under- and overnutrition, reduces premature deaths, mitigates GHG emissions from the food system, and halts biodiversity loss, among other benefits. These positive effects lead to a reduction in hidden costs of over 5 trillion USD 2020 PPP annually and generate a welfare gain equivalent to increasing global GDP by 9.6 trillion USD 2020 PPP. Our analysis highlights that the primary driver of change for transforming the global food system lies in shifting towards a plant-based diet like the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (Willet et al. 2019). This dietary shift not only addresses the triple burden of malnutrition and related non-communicable diseases but also eases pressure on natural resources, reshapes production systems, and reduces GHG emissions.
However, despite various policy instruments worldwide incentivizing healthier diets (e.g., taxing sugar-sweetened beverages, regulating the marketing of unhealthy foods, targeting public procurement), large-scale implementations are lacking. Furthermore, compensation schemes are essential to offset potential food price increases for lower-income groups. Preventing unintended consequences and fully leveraging the environmental benefits of the dietary shift in food systems requires the implementation of coherent policy bundles rather than standalone policies. Nonetheless, the design and implementation of such policy bundles remain under-researched. Key principles for constructing these bundles include eliminating inconsistencies, ensuring coherence across new and existing policies, capitalizing on synergies with other sectors (such as energy and water), prioritizing policies with maximum impact, establishing coordinated governance structures for food system change, implementing with robust enforcement and evaluation mechanisms, and ensuring the inclusion of diverse groups in policy design and decision-making.

Conclusion
While FSEC confirms the feasibility and economic viability of transforming food systems globally, numerous challenges persist on the policy and political economy fronts. National and international policy silos impede a comprehensive and holistic approach to transforming food systems through policy bundles. Overcoming these challenges requires the formation of new stakeholder coalitions within and beyond politics, leading to the establishment of a new food system governance framework. Such participatory governance arrangements can enhance stakeholder buy-in, foster new narratives, and hold governments accountable for progress.

References
Bodirsky et al. (2023). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2928708/v1
Crippa et al. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9
Dietrich et al. (2019). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019
FAO et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en
Gaupp et al. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00421-7
IPCC (2023). https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
Ruggeri Laderchi et al. (2024). https://foodsystemeconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/FSEC-GlobalPolicyReport-February2024.pdf
Willett et al. (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
World Bank (2021). http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/879401632342154766/Food-Finance-Architecture-Financing-a-Healthy-Equitable-and-Sustainable-Food-System

Speaker: Dr Claudia Hunecke

84 Assessment of trade-offs associated to the achievement of national or regional food self-sufficiency.

Introduction: The development of a country or region requires equilibrium among various factors like food security, population growth, gross national income, biodiversity conservation. Such factors are crucial for planning and policy-making as they are interconnected with the broader framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As a developmental objective, food self-sufficiency responds to the need for increased autonomy and control of own food supply as well as protection against international markets' fluctuations. The country or region food self-sufficiency (FSS) refers to its ability to produce enough food to meet its local population demand. In the literature, FSS is debated: arguments in support of the achievement of FSS are based on decreasing dependency on global markets and on the need of increasing food availability and accessibility for local population (i.e., two main components of food security). On the other hand, critics are based on the costs associated with pursuing FSS objective and highlight the trade-offs involved, particularly when political considerations overshadow economic and environmental factors in food policy decisions (Clapp, 2017).
Objective: The relevant question is therefore: Could FSS be achieved at the expense of other SDGs? The objective of our study was to explore the state-of-the-art for the assessment of both positive and negative interactions between the FSS objective and other factors. Specifically, we investigated the different types of interactions between FSS objective and other factors (economic, social, environmental or agronomic) at regional and national scale, along with the main methods implemented to explore such interactions.
Method: We adhered to “Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses” (PRISMA); a standardized protocol for systematic review and meta-data analysis (Page et al., 2021). In our initial literature scoping, we identified 1243 documents through our initial search in web databases (i.e., Scopus and Web-of-Science). We established exclusive criteria at each step of the protocol for the selection of publications. Final 174 selected articles were further reviewed by reading the full paper to extract relevant information and dataset. These documents were scientific papers in English addressing with any method the interaction between FSS and other factors. We extracted the following elements from the studies reviewed: a) Spatiotemporal context: the country or region unique circumstances (e.g., the country or region investigated, food self-sufficiency level, policies orientation, resources availability), and the global- or local-crisis interaction with FSS objective (e.g., financial crisis, health crisis, wars); b) Feed or food item or group for which FSS is addressed, (e.g., cereal, soybeans, multi-item); c) FSS indicators; d) Considered factors in interaction with FSS (e.g., water-land-energy resources, GDP, urbanization); e) Factors’ indicators; f) Type of interaction between FSS and factors (positive, negative, or neutral); g) Methodologies and trade-off analysis (e.g., data analysis, scenario analysis, optimization).
Findings: Results showed that: i) The main targets of the studies examined regarding FSS objective focus on the staple food provision, e.g., cereals, animal products, roots and tubers. ii) The assessment of a region or country's FSS status is based on the equilibrium between two pivotal factors: consumption and production. Consumption is mainly influenced by population density and growth, as well as the population dietary patterns. Meanwhile, production is intricately linked to factors such as resource availability, land allocation policies, and decisions regarding crop selection and competition. iii) The trade-offs associated to achieving FSS objectives are evident: first, in the potential losses of economic profit or efficiency (e.g., lower GDP, economic growth, farmers income, job opportunities); second, in the natural resource degradation (e.g., decreases in arable land area, soil loss and degradation, groundwater and fresh water degradation); and finally, in increased environmental negative impacts (e.g., carbon emissions and pollution, increases in temperature, high recurrence of drought or floods events). The major positive interactions mainly regard agricultural management. These include crop management practices, resource requirement, agricultural inputs, and level of technology, all that when considering closing yield gaps through agriculture intensification, or increasing food production based on arable land expansion. These positive interactions can be further strengthened in order to improve environmental aspects by implementing adapted agricultural management practices and climate change mitigation strategies, all while maintaining a sustainable resources management. Furthermore, trade-offs and synergies with FSS could be context-dependent. For example, fresh-water and arable-land factors are vital for food production and FSS, however, under crop intensification that might occur in some contexts, an overexploitation with no-consideration of resources use-efficiency disrupts system balance, especially for non- or slow-renewable resources like soil and groundwater. iv) We identified three main methodological approaches for interactions analysis: empirical analysis of FSS status, as an analysis of observed/historical data, at the region or country level based on an examination of food production and consumption levels (i.e., FSS-components); dynamic modelling used for scenario analysis relating FSS to the variation of one or multiple factors ; multi-objective optimization using mathematical programming models or algorithms to compute optimal solutions or trade-off mitigation strategies.
Conclusion: The positive interplay between FSS and agronomic factors open windows on the importance of supporting the agricultural sector. This entails a targeted effort towards improving crop production efficiency in countries or regions with food insecurity. However, in specific context, FSS can be achieved in different ways (e.g., through different agronomic scenarios like sustainable intensification or agroecology) each one leading to different trade-offs and synergies. Under trade-offs associated to the achievement of FSS, the multi-objective optimization helps to identify optimal compromise between the conflicting objective and factors. That is to say, the identification of a balanced solution that, over-proportionally, improves economic efficiency and reduces environmental impacts in comparison to stabilize or a small decrease in FSS, which represent an optimum and sustainable levels of FSS objective. Overall, mitigating trade-offs and fostering synergies among FSS interactions with other factors, can enhance policy-makers' capacity to make scientific decisions for food security, and to embrace potential strategies aimed supporting, at once, environmental, economic, social and resource-based benefits and sustainability at a region or national level.

Keywords: food self-sufficiency; factors; interaction; trade-off analysis; food security.

Speaker: Dr Achraf MAMASSI (UMR SADAPT, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Paris, France)

85 Risk Management Strategy of Food Safety: The Case of the US Fresh Produce Supply Chain

Foodborne illnesses have become a growing concern globally, especially for the fresh produce sector. Due to the large demand of fresh produce and the increasing number of foodborne illnesses outbreaks, maintaining safety along the food supply chain has become an important public health policy challenge. Food-related crises in recent years have accelerated the development of new underlying legislation, policies and standards. Previous research shows that food monitoring and traceability have proven to be effective for complying with regulations, meeting food safety and quality requirements, and reducing the cost of product recalls, as well as for increasing consumer confidence and reducing customer complaints and better connecting producers and consumers. It has been widely recognized both by practitioners and academia that it is critical to develop effective and efficient models to address food safety risks.

In response to the increase in outbreaks, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a pilot study to collect samples of raw agricultural commodity (RAC) focusing on romaine lettuce to test for foodborne pathogens in 2019. This was the first national attempt to test fresh produce for the occurrence of foodborne diseases. It intended to help the FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health agencies to identify sources of contamination and factors that may be contributing to foodborne diseases and find ways to address the food safety issues. Despite this important advance, however, questions remain about how to optimally test for contamination across the supply chain to achieve food safety in a cost-effective manner. To date, few studies have comprehensively assessed the role of food testing and traceability for preventing foodborne illness risks in the produce supply chain context.

To address this gap, this work models a nationwide fresh produce supply chain system using a numerical simulation method and examines food safety risks along the system. Based on this, we develop cost effective risk management strategies. This study considers fresh lettuce produced in Western US, a product mostly eaten raw and associated with a number of foodborne illness outbreaks, and shipped to 13 counties in New York State (NYS). NYS heavily relies on lettuce supplies from Western US to meet consumers’ demand, rendering foodborne disease a top food safety issue in the state.

The objective of this study is to identify the testing strategies that most efficiently balance the tradeoff between risk control efforts costs and food contamination risks. There are four potential test points are proposed from field to fork: (1) a test of products in the field; (2) a test at packinghouse; (3) a test at wholesale centers; and (4) a test at retailers. There are four places in the supply chain where a traceability mechanism could be implemented to identify sources of contamination. The tracing locations emerge if contamination is detected at test points 2, 3 and 4 respectively or if there are foodborne illnesses occurrences. If contamination is detected, a traceability mechanism will be implemented to identify sources of contamination. All products with identified contamination problem will be recalled.

Our results suggest that testing at the earlier stage of the supply chain, e.g., field testing and packinghouse testing, is more effective than other testing undertaken hereafter along the supply chain. Given the currently existing foodborne disease risks, the optimal testing strategy is to test products at a rate of approximately 29% at packer house. However, the testing cost has a significant impact on the optimal testing strategy. If the testing cost is 30 percent lower, the optimal test location will change from packinghouse to field and the systematic contamination risks and costs will be lower. In light of this, a rapid and affordable test technology will improve the functional performance and safety of this supply chain. Our results also suggest that a traceability system coupled with a testing mechanism improve the performance of the entire supply chain. Overall, a 15 percent cost savings can be achieved when the supply chain participants can share information to enable traceability along the fresh produce supply chain.

Our model provides practical solutions by which enterprises can systematically assess, track, and trace the contamination risks of supply chains. Our findings have direct implications for the optimal testing, traceability, and recall strategy for risk mitigation under potential foodborne illness risks. The generated data provide critical insight into possible unforeseen consequences of testing schemes coupled with traceability and recall mechanisms within the current fresh produce supply chain system under given levels of contamination risks. In spite of a regional model, the framework and approaches can be flexibly extended for application in other regions to address similar food safety problems elsewhere.

Speaker: Minhao Yan

Gender and Nutrition

86 Agroforestry and household nutrition in southern Madagascar: Does gender matter?

Introduction

Ensuring food security and nutrition remains a primary concern for many countries in the Global South, while frequent climatic (and non-climatic) shocks are creating a serious challenge for sustaining current levels of food security. Agroforestry has been praised for its potential as an adaptation strategy to climate change, in particular for addressing deforestation, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation, but also for its potential to improve wellbeing and nutrition. Agroforestry can affect nutrition directly through the provision of food (products from trees, shrubs and crops) but also indirectly, by improving yield (through fertility-enhancing synergies), resilience (shade, reduced erosion, reduced pests), and income (through the sale of food products but also timber and medicinal plants), in turn affecting food security and nutrition. Yet, rigorous studies on the link between agroforestry and household nutrition are lacking, and little is known about the role of gender norms in shaping this relationship. On one hand, women are responsible for preparing food, on the other hand, they lack control on the planting choices and on the use of the harvest and of income, ultimately affecting the sign of the relation between agroforestry and nutrition.
To bridge this gap, we focus on Madagascar, whose rural population is largely food insecure (65% prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021, World Bank (2022), while its biodiversity-rich environmental resources are subject to quick depletion. Moreover, the frequency of cyclones and droughts urge farmers to adapt their agriculture. Agroforestry is not new to Madagascar, as farmers have traditionally cultivated food and cash crop perennials in agroforestry systems (tsabo). Lately, agroecological measures such as agroforestry have been widely promoted in the country. Moreover, Madagascar is an interesting case study for its traditional division of gender roles. For instance, women in Madagascar can own and inherit land, however, compared to men, they are less engaged with cash crop production, have lower access to extension services, and are less likely to own titled land (Widman & Hart, 2019). The separation of roles is such that men are responsible for the preparation of soil and cattle, while women take care of the weeding, transplanting, household chores and care of the children (Jarosz, 1997).

Objective
In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by analysing the causal link between agroforestry and food security and nutrition of the household, while exploring the mediating impact of the gender of the household head and the decision maker for agricultural decisions. To this end, we use novel representative data from three regions in southern Madagascar (Anosy, Androy and Atsimo Atsinanana) collected by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research from 2023. The survey contains information on farm production, agricultural practices and food security and nutrition, amongst others. In particular, we focus on the direct impact of having trees on the parcel on households’ nutrition and food insecurity.

Methodology
Methodologically, combining trees with other crops is endogenous to household choices, which in turn affect nutrition. Therefore, an Instrumental Variables approach is recommended. As instrument, we use the previous ownership of land by the mother of the respondent and wind speed during cyclones. As trees are a long-term investment, the adoption decision strongly depends on the (perceived) tenure security of land and on a long enough presence on the farmland by the household's family. Data on wind speed comes from ISIMIP cyclone events maximum wind speed. Specifically, we count the number of times during cyclones in which the maximum wind speed exceeded a certain threshold. We construct these variables for the period 2008-2018, excluding explicitly the last 5 years’ events which might still have repercussions on the nutrition and food security at time 0. The assumption here is that strong winds in the past affected perennials in the past but not current food crops (hence nutrition). The exclusion restriction would be violated if alternative pathways exist from mother owning land or strong winds to nutrition, that do not run through agroforestry. To limit these concerns and those related to the use of climate IV (Mellon, 2023), we conduct several robustness tests.

Findings
Preliminary results show that the effect of agroforestry on nutrition and food security outcomes is mostly not significant or is negative. This is consistent in the OLS and IV specifications. Moreover, the role played by the gender of the decision maker partially makes this relation more explicit, signalling some important differences.
The two instruments are not weak according to the test of Montiel-Pflueger (2013), and Kleibergen-Paap (2006). The Anderson-Rubin indicates a well-specified model (cannot reject the joint hypothesis) in the cases of mild or no food insecurity, no hunger, frequent protein intake, food expenditure (only first wave), and diversity of food produced.

Conclusions
Climate change urges effective solutions in adaptation for agricultural systems in the Global South, which are dominated by smallholder agriculture. Agroforestry presents a multi-purpose adaptation strategy which not only improves environmental conditions, but can also (potentially) contribute substantially to reduce food insecurity.
Yet, establishing the direct impact of agroforestry on household nutrition is not an easy task. The difficulties are shaped by not only the endogeneity of agroforestry strategy adoption but also by the existence of different linkages connecting agroforestry and nutrition. Also, the availability of the right data is fundamental. Moreover, analysing the relationship between agroforestry and nutrition with the intermediation of gender is relevant for the interpretation of this relationship, and it can also shed light on possible obstacles which limit the efficacy of policies aiming to promote agroforestry. Indeed, the results from this study, while creating supporting evidence of this relationship, will also inform on the design of policies aimed at strengthening household adaptation in agriculture and household resilience.

References

• Jarosz, L. (1997). Women as Rice Sharecroppers in Madagascar. In C. E. Sachs (Ed.), Women Working in the Environment. Routledge.
• Mellon, J. (2023). Rain, Rain, Go Away: 195 Potential Exclusion-Restriction Violations for Studies Using Weather as an Instrumental Variable.
• Widman, M., & Hart, R. (2019). Joint Land Titling and Household Bargaining in Madagascar. Feminist Economics, 25(4), 211–239.

Speaker: Giulia Malevolti (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

87 Cultivating Change: Exploring the Link between Certification, Dietary Quality and Women’s Empowerment among Coffee Farmers in Rwanda

Sustainability standards such as Fairtrade, Organic, and Rainforest Alliance have gained importance over recent years, partly because of growing consumer concerns for environmental and social consequences of agricultural production. In western countries, the demand for products with sustainability labels are rising, especially for foods imported from developing countries like coffee, tea, and cocoa. Since sustainability standards involve smallholder farmers, this shift in consumption may possibly contribute to rural development and poverty reduction in developing countries.

The importance of this topic is also reflected in recent literature. Many studies explore income effects of certification schemes, but findings are often mixed. Some studies find significant farmer income gains, while other studies show that higher and more stable prices and improved practices do not always translate to higher household incomes. Additionally, results tend to depend heavily on country context due to difference in yield quality and different stages of market development. Beyond income, other measures of farmers’ welfare, like nutrition, have received much less attention. In developing countries, many of the undernourished population are smallholder farmers. Hence, it is crucial to better understand the effects agricultural production has on nutrition. Sustainability standards might play an important role for nutrition among smallholder farmers. They link farmers to high-value markets and simultaneously have the potential to offset adverse effects of agricultural commercialization on gender roles by focusing on empowering women in the value chain. Focusing on gender equity in agricultural commercialization is especially important for nutrition, because female-controlled income is often more important for household nutrition. Although there are studies investigating gender implications of certification, the link between gender effects and nutrition has remained largely unexplored. We are aware of only one other study by Chiputwa and Qaim (2016) which explicitly looks at women’s empowerment as a pathway of the impact of sustainability standards on household nutrition among coffee farmers in Uganda. However, the authors use a very narrow definition of women’s empowerment only considering women’s control over coffee revenues. Research on women’s empowerment suggests that much more nuanced insights into different domains of empowerment are needed to fully understand the impact it has on household welfare. We intend to add to the sparse literature on impacts of sustainability standards on farmers’ nutrition. We further aim to give new insights into women’s empowerment as a potential pathway by using a more differentiated assessment of women’s empowerment inspired by the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI).

In our analysis we use primary data from both certified and non-certified female Rwandan coffee farmers from five different districts to account for regional differences in coffee production.
Employing inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) and mediation analysis, we analyze impacts of certification on farmer’s nutrition and investigate women’s empowerment as a potential impact pathway. We reduce the possibility of selection bias by conditioning on a broad set of covariates.

Our results show a positive association between certification and dietary quality. We observe that certified female farmers consume more micro-nutrients and a larger diversity of food groups. Their diets are richer in food groups like fruits and vegetables (including vitamin A rich fruits and vegetables), whole grains, pulses, and nuts and seeds. Moreover, certified female farmers are more likely to meet the recommendations of global dietary guidelines (GDRs) and consume food groups associated with protection against non-communicable diseases.
In our mediation analysis, we aim to explore women’s empowerment as a potential pathway of certification’s impact on nutrition. Our mediation analysis shows that there is a significant positive association between certification and women’s empowerment. Additionally, we find strong associations between women’s empowerment on dietary quality specifically for dietary diversity, adherence with GDRs, and dietary factors that are protective against NCDs. We also observe that women’s empowerment is negatively associated with dietary risk factors while the direct association between certification and the NCD-R indicator remained positive. Possibly, effects of women’s empowerment are even able to offset negative effects of certification on dietary quality.

These results suggest that women’s empowerment is indeed a mediator on the pathway between certification and dietary quality and may partially explain positive nutrition effects of certification. We expect that these mediation effects mainly stem from women’s increased decision-making power and involvement in agricultural production and increased control over income which we observe in our sample. These results suggest that if certification schemes are carefully designed and implemented with country context in mind they can contribute to improved nutrition among small holder farmers, and improved gender equity.

Keywords: Sustainability standards, Nutrition, Women’s empowerment, Coffee, Rwanda

Speaker: Sophia Bohn (University of Göttingen)

88 Linking armed conflicts and children undernutrition in Nigeria: the mitigating effects of maternal bargaining power

Armed conflicts and insecurity are threats to economic activities for many developing countries as it disrupts various channels of economic growth. Apart from the immediate killing and destruction of physical infrastructure (ICRC, 2021), armed conflicts can have several indirect repercussions on children’s nutrition and health which substantially increases the overall cost of conflict. Children residing in armed conflicts areas are at a significantly higher risk of experiencing malnutrition, with over double the likelihood compared to those residing in peaceful areas (Save the Children, 2021). The disruption
of food systems, forced-displacement, economic instability, direct violence and challenges accessing clean water or healthcare services can all contribute to child malnutrition in armed conflicts areas (Stewart et al., 1997; Kirschner, Finaret, 2021; Eseosa EkhatorMobayode et al., 2022). The early stages of life, particularly infancy, is critical in shaping an individual long-term health, education and employment prospects (Strauss, Thomas,1998; Behrman, Rosenzweig, 2004; Maccini, Yang, 2009), as such, nutrition shocks resulting from conflicts during this period can have significant implications for economic growth and welfare.

Several studies conducted in developing world concluded that children living in regions affected by armed conflicts experience adverse health outcomes (Camacho, 2008; Akresh et al., 2012; Mainuddin et al., 2015). Nonetheless, a majority of these studies have certain limitations due to the unobserved heterogeneity of the population under examination, which can result in an under or overestimation of the true effect of the conflict exposition. Out of the various factors contributing to heterogeneity, the level of bargaining power held by mothers of the children is particularly crucial. In fact, a flourishing literature links a woman increased ability to make choices to an improvement in children schooling, health and nutrition (Duflo, 2003; Qian, 2008; Lépine, Strobl, 2013; Imai et al., 2014). Assuming there is a correlation between bargaining power and child nutrition, the impact of armed conflicts on child nutrition would vary between those born to mothers with high bargaining power and those born to mothers with low bargaining power.

This paper seeks to provide evidence-based insights into the complex interplay between armed conflicts, women’s bargaining power and child’s nutrition with the aim of identifying effective strategies to improve the nutritional status of children in conflictaffected areas. It is build on the assumption that in the household where females have high bargaining power, the investment in children health and nutrition is higher (all things being equal) therefore it may play a mitigating role in protecting children from the exposition to the conflict. To investigate this potential scenario, I use data from the Boko Haram (BH) insurgency in Nigeria. Since 2009, the northeastern regions of Nigeria have been facing the BH insurgency, a group which aims to topple the existing government and establish an Islamic law-based regime. Research conducted in Nigeria indicates that this region experienced a considerable decrease in total agricultural output and productivity (Adelaja, George, 2019), ultimately leading to higher levels of food insecurity (Kaila, Azad, 2023) which particularly affect children nutrition (Ekhator-Mobayode, Asfaw, 2019). The BH insurgency has also been found to reduce access to maternal healthcare services, including antenatal care visits, delivery at a healthcare center and delivery by a skilled health professional, which increases the risk of undernutrition and child mortality (Chukwuma,Ekhator Mobayode, 2019). The sample for this study is derived from the recode of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) conducted in 2008, 2013, and 2018 and comprises more than 35,339 children under the age of five. The outcome variables of interest are anthropometric indicators for children: Weight for Age z-scores (WAZ), Height for Age Z-scores (HAZ) and the Weight for Height Z-scores (WHZ). Information on the BH insurgency is drawn from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED). I spatially match each armed conflict event with at least one fatality related to BH that happened between 2009 (the year in which the BH conflict started) and 2018 to the NDHS cluster to build the exposition variable.

I started my investigation by running a regression model without any of the proxies of maternal bargaining power. The results suggest that the overall effect of the conflict on children nutrition is negative and statistically significant. In the following steps, using several proxies for maternal bargaining power, I find that each additional BH conflict negatively affect child nutrition hence increase the probability of undernutrition (specially for the WAZ and the WHZ) for children born to mothers with low level of bargaining power. Also, the effect of the BH conflict on children born to mothers with low levels of bargaining power is more pronounced for male children; the difference with female children born to the same group of women is not significant. The effect on children born to mothers with high bargaining power was not significant and similar for both boys and girls. The difference between the children born to the two groups of women is significant. I also found that older children (aged between 2 and 5) born to mothers with a low level of bargaining power are more affected by the conflict and there is a preference for first-born children among women with high bargaining power.

Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering women’s bargaining power when studying children’s nutritional status, as it is a source of heterogeneity and an effective tool in improving children’s nutrition especially in conflict-affected areas. The evidence suggests that policies and interventions designed to mitigate the negative impact of armed conflict on children’s nutrition can utilize progress in the level of women’s bargaining power alongside other protective measures.

Speaker: Habibou IBRAHIM KASSOUM (University Clermont Auvergne, CERDI, CNRS, IRD, France)

Informative Transforming Access and Social Justice

89 Re-conceptualising food fraud vulnerability within a social justice frame: Preserving the authenticity of Spanish honey

Honey is currently at the centre of changes in European regulations, mainly related to labelling and tightening controls, with several organisations calling for harmonised and improved detection methods and tighter import controls. Since the beginning of the 2010s, the fight against food fraud has become a key legislative and enforcement priority in the EU, following serious food fraud incidents and the complexity and cross-border nature of the food chain. Since its inception, the vulnerability approach has been at the core of the EU food fraud prevention system. The vulnerability concept involves the analysis of the key factors and characteristics that expose people and groups to harm while limiting their ability to anticipate, cope with, and recover from harm, including the assessment of human and systemic responses (Wisner, 2016). In the context of food fraud, several scholars and organisations highlight vulnerability as susceptibility to a [given] risk (e.g., van Ruth et al. 2017). Vulnerability to food fraud has been studied using different approaches, mainly based on criminological and behavioural science theories (e.g., Manning and Soon, 2016; van Ruth et al., 2017). Following the Safe Supply of Affordable Food Everywhere (SSAFE) tool, several studies have advanced knowledge on food fraud opportunities, motivations, and responses to control measures, highlighting different levels of food fraud (e.g., Yan et al., 2020).
Going beyond the perspective of criminal behaviour and industry-centred approaches, this article contributes to reconceptualising food fraud vulnerability, considering the vulnerability of actors and the environment, as well as social justice considerations. Although unequal access to information on food fraud has been recognised, social justice considerations in terms of participation and unequal impacts, particularly for vulnerable actors, have been largely absent from food fraud discussions in both academic and policy arenas.
This study aims to identify gaps in the understanding of food fraud vulnerability in the context of the Spanish Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) and non-certified honey supply chain. Narrative analysis is conducted based on interviews with experts and value chain actors of the Spanish honey supply chain, as well as European institutions and organisations. Specifically, we analyse a) factors that increase vulnerability to food fraud, b) actors' perceptions of vulnerability and how they are affected by food fraud, and c) the actions and adaptations taken by different actors in the chain and suggestions for remedies. Finally, we expand and nuance the concept of food fraud vulnerability based on the findings of this study. Overall, the study contributes to the inclusion of social justice narratives in policy decisions on food fraud in order to achieve the social objectives of European food policy.
While national authorities tend to focus their controls on food safety, several illegal practices, such as dilution with different syrups, harvesting of immature honey, and mislabelling of origin, among others, threaten the sustainability of the European beekeeping sector and beyond. This study highlights factors that increase vulnerability to food fraud, such as climate change, pests and diseases, and international trade dynamics that create distorted markets. Imported adulterated honey entering the EU market at lower prices threatens the viability of traditional beekeeping. Other critical vulnerabilities include methodological limitations, gaps and inconsistencies in legislation, power inequalities, and unequal participation in decision-making. Beekeepers and their associations see geographical indication and traditional speciality schemes, and direct producer-consumer interactions as a way to contribute to food fraud prevention and risk reduction. Furthermore, results from this study highlight transparency solutions such as data and information sharing transparency as crucial to tackling the root causes of food fraud.
As observed in this study, food fraud vulnerability is constructed socially due to social, economic, political, and cultural factors that affect decision-making. Including social justice considerations in terms of participation and unequal impacts, particularly for vulnerable actors, is a key consideration in the assessment of food fraud vulnerabilities and food fraud risks.

References

Manning, L., Smith, R., & Soon, J. M. (2016). Developing an organizational typology of criminals in the meat supply chain. Food Policy, 59, 44–54.
van Ruth, S. M., Huisman, W., & Luning, P. A. (2017). Food fraud vulnerability and its key factors. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 67, 70–75.
Yan, J., Erasmus, S. W., Aguilera Toro, M., Huang, H., & van Ruth, S. M. (2020). Food fraud: Assessing fraud vulnerability in the extra virgin olive oil supply chain. Food Control, 111, 107081.
Wisner, B. (2016). Vulnerability as Concept, Model, Metric, and Tool. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science.

Keywords: authenticity, sustainability, social justice, honey supply chain, transparency, food fraud vulnerability

Speaker: Dr Claudia Coral (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Fachgebiet Management agrarischer Wertschöpfungsketten)

90 Information Crowding and the Value of Food Labels: An Experiment on Preferences for Environmental and Health Trait

Keywords: Food Labelling, Consumer Choice, Discrete Choice Experiment, Willingness to Pay, Traffic Light System, Fat Content, Carbon Footprint

1. Introduction

Individual food choices influence both personal health and the broader environmental ecosystem. To achieve emission reduction targets by 2050, it is crucial to decrease the demand for high-emission foods and transition towards sustainable diets. Simultaneously, promoting healthier dietary choices is essential for improving public health by reducing the prevalence of diet-related diseases. Recent studies have also highlighted that a more sustainable diet could lead to improved health as a co-benefit. Consequently, aligning the goals of healthier and more sustainable food consumption necessitates effective policy guidance.

This study explores the effectiveness of food labelling as a potential policy tool to promote sustainable and healthy food consumption. Specifically, this research employed a consequential Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), using a ready-meal salad as the experimental product, to assess participants’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for salads featuring different levels of healthiness and environmental attributes, under different labelling systems. The study aims to address the following research questions: (1). What is the willingness to pay (WTP) among individuals for environmental and health gains? (2). How does the dual-labelling system – simultaneously presenting carbon and fat content information on the packaging – affect the WTP for these environmental and health gains?

The paper contributes to the literature in two dimensions: First, the paper contributes to the literature on the effectiveness of food labelling on food consumption. A key limitation in current literature lies in its predominant focus on individual labels, neglecting the potential interplay between multiple labels. Additionally, much of the previous research relies on surveys or hypothetical experiments, potentially suffering from the hypothetical bias issue. This study addresses these gaps by comparing outcomes of a consequential experiment involving both single and dual labelling, aiming to offer a clearer understanding of how labelling influences consumer choices.

Second, it adds valuable insights to the field of motivation crowding theory within the multi-labelling framework. In the context of consumer consumption, the interaction of information yields mixed results. This study adds to the literature by presenting empirical evidence of label proliferation, particularly between environmental and health traits, in the domain of food products.

2. Research Design

This project employs a consequential DCE approach using a ready-meal salad as the experimental product to examine how different information influences consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for low-carbon and low-fat features of food. This experiment is designed to examine the between-group effects, and respondents were randomly assigned to one of the three treatments: a single label (including either fat content or carbon footprint) and a dual label (featuring both fat content and carbon footprint) with the product labels representing carbon footprint, fat content, or a combination of both.

To encourage respondents to reveal their true preferences, this experiment follows a consequential design. At the end of the experiment, one choice task was randomly selected and revealed to participants. If a participant chose to purchase a product from the selected choice set, the product was provided with its cost deducted from the participation fee; if a participant did not buy any salad in the selected choice set, they received the full participation fee.

The choice sets in each treatment remained consistent, with the only distinction being the labels presented to participants. This product was evaluated based on two non-monetary attributes—carbon footprint and fat content—each of which was categorized into three tiers: high, medium, and low. To communicate these attributes to consumers, the packaging incorporated a traffic-light label system. Additionally, the product was priced across a spectrum of nine distinct points, ranging from £2.0 to £6.0, distributed evenly.

3. Estimation Strategy

The choice data from the DCE will be modelled based on the Random Utility Model. It is assumed that respondent n in treatment t will choose option j which yields the highest utility given the choice task. The utility is separated into two parts, specified in equation (1), with V_ntj representing the part of the utility observed by the research, and ε_nj representing random error capturing the individual factors outside of the model.

"U_ntj "= " V_ntj "+ " ε_nj " = " ∑_(s=1)^S▒〖γ_sjt A_sjt 〗 "+ " β_t P_jt "+ " ε_nj " (1)

A_sjt includes all the dummy variables for carbon and fat attribute levels in Table 1. And γ, β are parameters representing the marginal utilities of the corresponding attribute and price. The WTP for a certain attribute level is calculated as:

wtp = -γ_sjt/β_t (2)

4. Results

The study employs a randomized controlled design with 236 participants assigned to three treatments in a consequential discrete choice experiment (DCE). In summary, the results indicate three key findings:

1. Consumers exhibit a higher average WTP for salads with reduced fat compared to reduced carbon levels.
2. The WTP patterns for both features demonstrate a non-linear characteristic. Respondents are willing to pay more to avoid products that are high in carbon or fat, but this willingness does not increase proportionally when the reduction is from a medium to a low level. This indicates a diminishing marginal WTP for additional reductions beyond the initial decrease from high levels.
3. The addition of dual labelling does not significantly influence the WTP for either low-carbon or low-fat attributes.

4. Conclusion

This research uses a Consequential DCE to explore the WTP among individuals for environmental and health gains and the dual-labelling information crowding effect in one experiment setting. The preliminary results show that the WTP for private gains (low-fat feature) is significantly higher than public gains (low-carbon feature); The WTP for these features presents a non-linear feature; and no significant information crowding effect is found. The results from this study offer insight into both the motivation crowding theory and the potential of policy intervention in the food sector.

Speaker: Jinghan Chen (University of Manchester)

91 Assessing food consumption patterns in Spain towards LCA of diets: pathways for a just transition

Keywords: dietary transition, agri-food systems, food justice, food consumption.

1.Introduction

Agri-food systems are important contributors to global socio-environmental impacts directly affecting human health (Gaupp et al., 2021). A transition towards responsible production and consumption patterns is required to ensure climate change adaptation and mitigation. Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) have commonly served as the predominant methodology for estimating the environmental impact of food products (Ambikapathi et al., 2022; Batlle-Bayer et al., 2020; Cambeses-Franco et al., 2022; González-García et al., 2020). However, its application has primarily centred on evaluating individual products, often overlooking crucial aspects such as production systems and socioeconomic characteristics of the population (Toniolo et al., 2021).

2.Objectives
This study aims to gather and interpret consumption data in Spain to assess the sustainability of food consumption patterns with LCAs considering socioeconomic aspects. Specifically, we aim to reduce the agri-food footprint by (a) analysing Spanish consumption patterns considering different socioeconomic strata; (b) examining existing relations between class-related consumption habits, type of food, and territorial productivity (c) outlining transition scenarios based on differentiated results from the survey data and production methods.

3.Methods
3.1 Spanish dietary habits
The Baseline Diet (BD) was obtained from the 2022 Household Average Consumption Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food (MAPA, 2022). Answering the necessity of bringing into the equation differences in consumption habits based on socio-economic status, four other BDs were considered: high, medium, medium-low, and low socioeconomic households’ BDs (MAPA, 2005).

3.2 EAT-Lancet Recommendations
Scenarios of dietary transitions were designed in conformity with the EAT-Lancet planetary diet. EAT-Lancet recommends nutritional and weight-based intakes of eight groups of food and subgroups. For comparison purposes, the same categories were created for each BD.

3.3 Spanish production systems
The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach was used to thoroughly collect the carbon footprint of each product in terms of GWP (measured in kg CO2eq). In this stage, case studies in Spain were prioritized over studies carried out elsewhere. Data obtained through the literature review was complemented with the SuEatable Database (Petersson et al., 2021) Moreover, we gathered LCA information about different production systems - i.e., conventional vs organic, intensive vs extensive, and long-distance vs km0. The average GWP of each product was then used to estimate the carbon footprint (CF) of the baseline diets.

4.Findings
4.1 Spanish consumption patterns and socioeconomic strata
The EAT-Lancet Diet recommends a daily intake for adults of 1,312 g per person per day. In Spain, the average consumption is 1,233 g per person per day, showing a deficit of 79 g per person per day. Similar results are shown for all the analysed BDs except for the high-class BD, which reports an excess in food consumption.

Comparisons between the average BD and the planetary diet show a significant deficit of grain, plant-sourced proteins, and vegetables daily intake (-128, -107, and -162 g person-1 day-1, respectively), and an excess of animal-sourced proteins, added sugars, starchy vegetables, and dairy foods (+80, +20, +22, and +27 g person-1 day-1, respectively). These results are in line with the literature (Broekema et al., 2020; Cambeses-Franco et al., 2022; Gaupp et al., 2021), and indicate that a shift towards a diet richer in plant-based products is required in Spain (Batlle-Bayer et al., 2019).

Although our data display a generalized deficit in food consumption compared with the recommendations, it is important to notice that official consumption data often underestimate the real amount of food ingested. To this account, Cerrillo et al. (2023) highlight how official consumption data do not include extra-domestic consumption, touristic flows, and food losses and waste, and calculate an increase in real consumption, especially in cereals and meat.

On the one hand, this consideration softens the analysis related to the deficit of per capita daily intake; on the other hand, it displays an even more alarming condition for high classes and a generalized excessive consumption of animal-based products.

4.2 Type of foods and socioeconomic status
The proportion of food groups between classes does not show any significant divergence. On the contrary, dissimilarities are present when taking into account the quality of food items: high and medium-class BD reveal higher percentages of certified and bovine meat, Iberian ham, fresh and blue fish, and extra virgin olive oil, while medium- and low-class BD show higher relative consumptions of chicken and pork meat, frozen meat, white and frozen fish, and sunflower oil. Moreover, results show that the average consumption of high-class BD accounts for almost one-third of the total average amount of meat consumed (29%).

4.3 Transition scenarios
Due to their CF and class-depending consumption, animal-based proteins show a higher degree of improvement. We thus identify three preliminary transition scenarios:

(i) Boost a reduction in the consumption of animal-based products, focusing on high- and middle-class consumption. This scenario aims at evening the CF between high- and low-strata BDs, decreasing consumption by 120-45 g per person-1 day-1;

(ii) Favour the consumption of plant-based products for low-classes, which should increase vegetables and plant-based products consumption by 90-93 g per person-1 day-1. This scenario aims at improving food security and thus requires a special emphasis on groups in vulnerable conditions;

(iii) Combine reduction and changing production of different systems, taking into consideration systems linked with local resources. This scenario brings into the equation the context of the agri-food system and rethinks production methods.

5. Conclusions
The shift towards sustainable and healthy agri-food systems is a cross-cutting issue that needs to take into account the characteristics of the production systems, as well as socioeconomic aspects affecting consumers’ decisions. Further CF analysis related to Spanish BDs is required to explore transition scenarios through LCA studies. Nonetheless, our preliminary results represent a starting point for improving the localised sustainability of food habits.

Speaker: Chiara De Tomassi (BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change)

92 Eating Informed: The Impact of Animal-based Food Information on Carbon Offsetting Choices

Food choices, especially those involving animal-based products, have become more than a dietary concern, they are a critical step towards climate change mitigation. Reducing the consumption of animal-based foods in developed countries is now widely accepted as a key part of mitigating climate change (Parlasca and Qaim 2022; Kwasny, Dobernig, and Riefler 2022). Yet, one barrier is that individuals are often uninformed about the impact of dietary changes on climate change (Macdiarmid, Douglas, and Campbell 2016; De Boer, De Witt, and Aiking 2016) and underestimate their carbon footprint from food consumption (Camilleri et al. 2019; Cologna, Berthold, and Siegrist 2022).

Applying carbon footprint labels to food products is the most direct approach in attempting to influence consumer food choices (Camilleri et al. 2019). Yet, carbon labels are not always effective and remain poorly understood (Grunert, Hieke, and Wills 2014; Rondoni and Grasso 2021). In addition, people are less willing to contribute to climate change if the required lifestyle changes are seen as too drastic (Andre et al. 2024). People generally like to continue eating the food they know and enjoy following the norm (Bonnet et al. 2020). Moreover, there is resistance to eating less meat (Macdiarmid, Douglas, and Campbell 2016). In this context, carbon offsetting may provide an alternative opportunity to reduce emissions from food consumption.

In this paper, we explore people’s willingness to offset carbon emissions as a way to reduce residual emissions from animal-based food consumption. Specifically, we study the causal effect of providing information about greenhouse gas emissions from dairy and meat consumption on people’s carbon offsetting choices and compare this to emission information for car journeys and no information provision.

We use a pre-registered online survey experiment with a representative sample of 600 Irish citizens. The sample is representative of age and gender, and the sample size was defined using a power analysis. The survey experiment is based on a within-between-subject design, which consists of two donation choices. Initially, participants are endowed with €20 and can allocate any amount to a carbon sequestration project run by EcoTree, a European company that conducts carbon offsetting projects in Europe and elsewhere. After the baseline donation, participants are randomly allocated into one of three treatments (i.e. dairy, meat, or car) or an active control. The treatments provide participants with information on greenhouse gas emissions from the production and consumption of dairy and meat, and traveling by car in Ireland. The active control is similar in length but provides information on tea consumption in Ireland with no information on greenhouse gas emissions. Participants are then asked to make a second donation. One of the two donations is randomly selected and applied for payment.

As part of the pre-registered analyses, we will test whether the information provision on animal-based foods (i.e., meat and dairy) increases the donations in comparison to the absence of information (i.e., active control). We will also test for differences in donations dependent on whether the greenhouse gas emission information originates from animal-based foods or car traveling. For this comparison, we do not pre-register a directional effect. In addition, we will run exploratory analyses.

[The full data collection is set to occur in March 2024. The results presented below are from a pilot data session using only the active control condition and are purely exploratory.]

Findings from pilot data involving only the active control indicate that participants donate €7.55 on average. In addition, we find no differences between the first and second donations, which confirms that the active control does not impact donations. Looking into the determinants of the donation, we find no heterogeneity among participants in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. However, participants with greater levels of concern and awareness of the consequences of climate change donate more. Similarly, participants who trust and see carbon offsetting as efficient also donate more. These results show that greater carbon literacy is linked with a higher willingness to pay for carbon offsets. In turn, this aligns with our pre-registered hypotheses that information on greenhouse gas emissions from animal-based foods will increase carbon literacy and lead to a higher willingness to pay for carbon offset.

Speaker: Thibaut Arpinon (University of Göttingen)

The complexity of Sustainability-Labelling

93 Mapping the sustainability labels jungle in the food context: consumers’ preference of label (type)

Keywords: multidimensional multi-level sustainability labels, consumer preference, label type, groceries

Introduction
While multi-level front-of-package labels (such as the NutriScore) for indicating food items’ healthiness based on several dimensions are well established (Ikonen et al., 2020), the sustainability labelling landscape is very fragmented (Futtrup et al., 2021) and yet, no multidimensional multi-level sustainability label (MDMLSL) prevails in the food context. Currently most existing food labels are conceptualized binary (Weinrich & Spiller, 2016), however, focusing on multiple dimensions appears to be especially important considering the multi-facet nature of sustainability. By incorporating more than just one dimension, the actual sustainability can be captured holistically (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, water footprint) and thus, more realistically. Additionally, multi-level labels are of particular importance, since they different levels depict the different shades of to what extent a criterion is fulfilled more granularly (e.g., free-range livestock breeding, different levels of space in the barn). Furthermore, a MDMLSL could increase the comparability of food and food products by incorporating not one but several of the most important metrics, such as water use, land use and carbon emissions (Asioli et al., 2020). Moreover, studies indicate that consumers’ satis-faction for multi-level labels are higher than for binary labels in the food item context (Weinrich & Spiller, 2016). Hence, a MDMLSL would take into account all essential sustainability dimensions, their level of fulfillment, and an (easy to interpret) aggregated score.

To cover all essential sustainability labels in a MDMLSL for the food industry, one would need to take into account dimensions such as water use, land use, greenhouse gases, etc. However, “despite repeated calls for the development of such a holistic label, to date no label repre-sents sustainability holistically with all of its relevant dimensions” (Futtrup et al., 2021, p. 1412). One main challenge in implementing a MDMLSL lays in translating complex sustainability information into labels that can easily by understood by every consumer (Futtrup et al., 2021).

Objectives
In order to find out which dimensions should be included into a MDMLSL and how it should be designed to address the trade-off between information overload and an easy to understand conceptualization, this paper provides the following contributions. First, a systematic literature review is conducted to summarize all previous insights on MDMLSL and meta-labels, which oftentimes are proposed as alternative solutions to MDMLSLs. This literature review is extended by examining those MDMLSL currently existing in practice (in selected organic grocery shops). Second, two studies are conducted to test different aspects of consumers’ preference of MDMLSLs. The first one empirically tests which type of label conceptualization is preferred most between similar MDMLSLs. The second one investigates which of the currently existing MDMLSLs and those discussed in litera-ture is preferred among consumers from different countries.

Method
For the systematic literature review, we focused on the data bases EBSCO, Science Direct, and Web of Science, as well as snowball sampling. The initial search string covers: “(food OR groceries OR grocery) AND (label OR labelling OR score OR scoring) AND (sustainability OR sustainable OR ecological OR eco OR environmental) AND (multi OR level OR multiple OR summarized OR composite OR dimension OR combined OR combination OR combining OR overall OR holistic OR comprehensive) AND (consumption OR consumer OR behavior OR behaviour OR purchase OR preference OR acceptance OR choice OR evaluation)” and incorporates literature published between 2012 and 2024. The final number of papers examined amounts to n=115.
The first study uses a Best-Worst scaling experiment (BWS), since this methodology enables to yield a higher discrimination between similar items (here: MDMLSLs, Brand & Kopplin, 2023). The first study enquires n=285 German consumers with twelve types of MDMLSLs, which were slightly modified based on literature.
The second study also consists of a BWS and makes use of an es-tablished panel provides to yield comparable sample across countries. Based on extant literature, Poland and Sweden appear to represent interesting opposites, since the first one shows low level of sustainability concerns, while the latter one has the highest use of sustainability labels on food items (Grunert et al., 2014). However, both countries have a comparable gross domestic product (Poland 2022: 688.3 billion USD; Sweden 2022: 591.2 billion USD, see IMF, 2023a, 2023b). The second study covers 14 MDMLSLs derived from literature and practice and involved n=450 consumers per country. Both studies included an anchor scaling.

Findings
The systematic literature review and an analysis of existing MDMLSLs revealed that most labels focus on carbon footprint, CO2 emissions or carbon emissions (83%), follow by water use or water footprint (52%) and biodiversity (46%). Hence, these three dimensions appear to be the essential ones when it comes to the ecological impact of groceries. Depending on the grocery selected, an additional dimension would be animal welfare.
The first study indicates that consumers clearly prefer the conceptualization currently employed by “Öko-Score”. This MDMLSL shows an aggregate score and the sub-scores for each dimension. It also incorporates parts of a globe as part of the logo. Purely aggregated scoring labels were ranked last; however, all labels would be generally be taken into account when shopping for groceries (anchor scaling). Apart from that, letters representing the score were preferred over number, leaves, or stars.
The second study with n=450 Swedish and n=450 Polish consumers is about to be launched. The results will be available in April.

Conclusion
To facilitate consumers’ awareness for purchasing more environmentally friendly groceries, one universal label should prevail (just like the NutriScore for health concerns). To do so, all relevant environmental aspects (dimensions) should be taken into account. Based on the sys-tematic literature review, the most important dimensions are carbon emissions, water footprint, and biodiversity. The first study implies that consumers tend to welcome outlining different sub-dimensions instead of global, aggregated score for MDMLSLs only. Consumers preferred letters for indicating a label’s score over numbers, stars, or leafs. Most MDMLSL would be welcome by consumers. Consumers prefer the visualization proposed by the “Öko-Score” the most.

Speaker: Dr Benedikt Brand (University of Bayreuth)

94 More is not always better, but when is it? Investigating the Influence of Label Complexity on the Effectiveness of Sustainability Labels

Keywords: sustainability assessment, meta-sustainability label, eye-tracking

Introduction
The agri-food sector, responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions, heavily impacts sustainability, with consumers being key drivers for a more sustainable food sector (Garnett, 2013). However, they are still not fully aware of the environmental impact of their food consumption (Camilleri et al., 2019). To address this issue, the European Union plans to introduce a mandatory meta-sustainability label to support consumers in making more sustainable food choices (European Commission, 2023). This approach considers an extensive list of sustainability aspects and goes beyond information that consumers typically use to determine whether a food item is sustainable - such as the origin or packaging material (Torma & Thøgersen, 2023). A higher information density within a label may also require more information processing capacity and knowledge to process and understand the information (Grunert et al., 2013). The development of an ease-to-use label at the point of sale is therefore crucial for informed food choice, as excessive label complexity may lead to uncertainty and hinder sustainable choices (Thøgersen et al., 2010). Although highly relevant to consumer decision-making and corporate social responsibility, research on the effectiveness of meta-sustainability labels in supporting sustainable choices is scarce, particularly in understanding consumers' information needs during the evaluation process.

Objective
Our two studies, an online survey experiment, and an eye-tracking study, address the research gap and extend the literature on food labeling and information processing by evaluating how consumers process label information and apply it to their food choices. We derive behavioral insights into label use, and the cognitive resources needed to decode labels. Our research contributes to a differentiated understanding of label effectiveness in evaluation contexts by considering both internal and external sources of information (e.g., consumers' sustainability knowledge and supporting label information) as decisive determinants of label use and information processing.

Methods
Two studies were conducted to address the research objective. The first study used a between-subjects design, employing a 4x2 online experimental design to assess the effects of varying label dimensions and the presence of supporting label information. Participants evaluated labeled products within the same category. Following the judgments, participants' label use and self-confidence were measured. The second study, a behavioral eye-tracking study, examined consumers' metacognitive abilities in interpreting different label designs (Eco Score, Planet Score, Eaternity Score) during product evaluation. Participants' eye movements were tracked while evaluating food products. A questionnaire measuring sustainability knowledge and expert ratings provided an additional assessment of consumer evaluations.

Results
232 participants (MAge = 36.1 years; 68% female) participated in the first online study. We aimed to examine the indirect effects of different levels of label dimensions on the quality of assessments through label use, considering supportive label information. Using a moderated mediation PROCESS Model 8 (Hayes, 2013), we found that multidimensional labels (e.g., four-dimensional) compared to one-dimensional labels had a significant indirect effect (IE) through label usage in the absence of supportive label information (IE=.87; CI [.501, 1.33]). However, in the presence of supportive label information, this indirect effect was not significant (i.e., CIs included zero), suggesting that supportive information increases the use of simplified labels (e.g., one-dimensional labels).
In the second study (123 participants, MAge = 38.6 years; 63% female), we investigated the processing patterns of different existing label designs in the food market, which differ in label design complexity (Eco Score, Planet Score, Eaternity Score). ANOVA revealed that participants using traffic light labels (Eco Score and Planet Score) assessed the sustainability of food products accurately - comparable to experts (MPlanet Score = 3.09; MEco Score = 3.00; F(1;123) = 9.07, p < .001), including those with limited sustainability knowledge. Notably, self-confidence was significantly higher in the Eaternity group. Especially in the Eaternity Score group, consumers with low sustainability knowledge expressed higher self-confidence (MEaternity Score = 3.35, F(1;123) = 9.07, p < .001).

Conclusion
Across two studies we demonstrate how consumers respond to different label designs and demonstrate a boosting effect of label use through supportive label information, thereby improving the label effectiveness. One key finding is that a higher label dimension does not consistently predict sustainable choices and requires more visual processing time, even for the vulnerable consumer group with low sustainability knowledge. Interestingly, objective suitability to guide consumer assessment is not necessarily connected to perceived self-confidence in assessment. These findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of label design effectiveness and extend previous research by considering supportive label information (Bollinger et al., 2022) and consumer knowledge (Hartmann et al., 2021) as decisive determinants of meta-sustainability label usage.

Literature
Bollinger, B., Liebman, E., Hammond, D., Hobin, E., & Sacco, J. (2022). Educational Campaigns for Product Labels: Evidence from On-Shelf Nutritional Labeling. Journal of Marketing Research, 59(1), 153–172. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022243720981975
Camilleri, A. R., Larrick, R. P., Hossain, S., & Patino-Echeverri, D. (2019). Consumers Underestimate the Emissions Associated with Food but are Aided by Labels. Nature Climate Change, 9(1), 53–58. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0354-z
European Commission. (2023). Amending Directives 2005/29/EC and 2011/83/EU as Regards Empowering Consumers for the Green Transition Through Better Protection Against Unfair Practices and Better Information.
Garnett, T. (2013). Food Sustainability: Problems, Perspectives and Solutions. The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, 72(1), 29–39. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0029665112002947
Grunert, K. G., Hieke, S., & Wills, J. (2013). Sustainability Labels on Food Products: Consumer Motivation, Understanding and Use. Food Policy, 44, 177–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.12.001
Hartmann, C., Lazzarini, G., Funk, A., & Siegrist, M. (2021). Measuring Consumers’ Knowledge of the Environmental Impact of Foods. Appetite, 167, 105622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2021.105622
Hayes, A. F. (2018). Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis: A Regression-Based Approach (Methodology in the Social Sciences) (2nd ed.). New York, NY: The Guilford Press
Thøgersen, J., Haugaard, P., & Olesen, A. (2010). Consumer responses to ecolabels. European Journal of Marketing, 44(11/12), 1787–1810. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090561011079882
Torma, G., & Thøgersen, J. (2023). Can a meta sustainability label facilitate more sustainable consumer choices? Business Strategy and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.3488

Speaker: Sandra Ullrich (Universität Göttingen, Wiesbaden Business School)

95 Climate vs. eco labeling on food – do information matter? An online survey experiment.

Interest in reducing the food sector's environmental impact is growing in the face of global warming and environmental pressures. This has led to a global push for evolving front-of-pack sustainability labels. The European Union (EU) also aims to develop a uniform labeling system as part of its 'farm to fork' strategy to encourage sustainable food choices. A key question is whether a label should focus solely on greenhouse gases or also include other environmental factors. To explore the consumer perspective on this issue, we conducted an online survey experiment in June 2022 with 511 participants in Germany as the EU’s largest economy.
Results indicated that many participants struggle to differentiate between climate and eco labels. However, especially when given explanations, participants tended to prefer the eco label. A cluster analysis supported these findings, as it identified four consumer groups with different attitudes toward the climate and eco labels: All groups had a slight preference for the eco label, which increased after the information treatment.

Speaker: Dorothea Meyer (University of Göttingen)

96 The limited role of carbon food labels in shifting food demand toward planetary health diets

According to the IPCC, ambitious demand-side food policies are essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the Paris climate change targets. Yet, amongst others due to deeply rooted eating habits, culture, traditions, and limited consumer knowledge about the climate impact of different foods, food consumption choices cannot be changed easily. While demand-side food policies are vital for shifting consumption, their effectiveness and feasibility is debated. Information-based and nudging instruments are less intrusive and, therefore, politically more feasible than most market-based and regulatory instruments. However, how effective are such less intrusive instruments like food labels in shifting consumer behavior?

Despite the public and private interest in the topic and the research already conducted on the perception and impact of carbon food labels, there still is a lack of field experimental studies to causally evaluate the impact of carbon food labels on regular food consumption behavior, especially when it comes to regular grocery shopping in supermarket settings. Research so far has mostly been focused on the impact of carbon food labels on food consumption decisions in survey settings, as well as the impact of carbon food labels on individuals’ food consumption choices when eating out, e.g., in restaurant or cafeteria settings.

Here, we contribute to the existing research by causally evaluating the impact of a real-world carbon food label on individuals’ attitudes, intentions, policy support, and their revealed purchasing behavior in a grocery shopping setting over time. We implemented a survey and field experiment with a representative sample of Swiss residents (N= 2372 in the first part of the study, N = 1605 in the second part of the study) in cooperation with the Swiss retailer and ran a panel analysis of over 5 million consumer purchasing decisions over more than 3 years. More specifically, we cooperate with Migros, one of Switzerland's largest food retailers by evaluating their novel Mcheck carbon food label.

In the first survey experimental part of the study, we evaluated the impact of randomly providing information on the new Mcheck labeling initiative on individuals’ attitudes, behavioral intentions, and policy support. In the second field experimental part of the study, we then causally evaluated the impact of having randomly received information on the new carbon food label on individuals’ food purchasing behavior over time. For this part, we asked for the individual respondents’ informed consent to anonymously analyze their purchasing data. For all individuals who gave their informed consent, we then obtained the food purchasing data via Migros.

Our findings show a positive impact of the carbon food label on individuals’ purchasing intentions and support for a mandatory governmental carbon food label, while the effect on purchasing behavior is rather limited, for instance, there is no effect on the average climate rating of the products purchased. Policymakers should thus not overemphasize the role of carbon food labels in the context of supermarkets but instead, focus on a combination of various sustainable food policies to enable demand-side shifts.

Speaker: Maiken Maier (Universität Bern)

13:10 Lunch

Power and Governance in Food Systems

14:10 Open Display

97 Strengthening social perspectives in sustainability transformation of food systems

Keywords
social sustainability, food systems, cohesion, justice, culture, identity

Introduction
In order to contribute to greater climate-related protection and justice, food systems must be designed in particular to be ecologically sustainable and socially acceptable. While the knowledge regarding ecological aspects is constantly improving and environmental impacts largely can be captured well, social sustainability in the context of nutrition has so far been underrepresented. There is disagreement about the definition of social sustainability, and the relevant aspects therein. Controversially discussed are also possible objectives and how individual goals could be achieved and progress recorded.
Objective
The project "Social dimension of climate-friendly nutrition" investigates what social sustainability means in relation to selected areas of the food system and what opportunities exist for various stakeholder groups to promote it. These questions relate to the areas of food production and processing as well as consumption at household level.
One aim is to strengthen social perspectives in the context of sustainable nutrition through the participatory development of action-oriented knowledge. For this purpose, the state of knowledge on social effects within food systems is analysed. This concerns social problems, criteria, and data as well as ongoing activities, for example in the area of sustainability certification. Needs for action to strengthen the social dimension are identified and possible options for action are discussed.
Another aim is to initiate societal understanding of objectives and to connect stakeholders from different areas of society and support their exchange. As part of the project, conceptual principles regarding the relevance of social sustainability in nutrition will be developed. These principles serve as a normative frame of reference to collectively identify and analyse social aspects. Thereby social sustainability will be embedded and gains visibility in food systems and in discourses on transformation.
Methods
The project combines literature studies, expert workshops, interviews, and topic-specific small group discussions. Thus, stakeholders from academia, politics, civil society, and the economy have the opportunity to share their knowledge and experience on various aspects of the project in order to analyse key problems, topics and objectives of the social dimension from different perspectives. Through feedback loops, responses can be further developed into conceptual considerations. For example, findings from literature research are discussed and enriched in expert workshops. This creates an iterative process in which the insights from different exchange formats are brought together and complement each other.
Findings
Important impulses for relevant aspects of the social dimension come from existing definitions and systematics of sustainable development. Examples are the UN Sustainable Development Goals (United Nations, 2015), the Doughnut Economics model, which relates planetary and social boundaries (Raworth, 2012), or the Integrative Concept of Sustainable Development (Jörissen et al., 1999) as well as considerations from the ethical sciences on social aspects in nature conservation (Berger, 2021).
The first concepts developed so far focus on the terms of justice and cohesion. This allows essential social aspects to be related to two large sub-areas. The subject area of justice mainly comprises socio-economic aspects that can be regulated or quantified by law, such as working conditions, wages, but also includes the opportunity for participation and education. Cohesion, on the other hand, covers softer, socio-cultural aspects that are not easy to regulate or quantify, but which have significant influence on human coexistence, such as tolerance and acceptance of cultural diversity, different social identities, or shared norms and values. These topics can be transferred to food systems and the areas of production and consumption at household level and provide a framework to define social aspects and make them visible.
Conclusion
A better understanding of social sustainability in relation to nutrition, which addresses socio-economic and socio-cultural aspects, has the potential to identify key elements for change that are also important for the successful transformation of food systems. These considerations can be transferred to topical areas in nutrition or applied to current food policy concepts and strategies. This, in turn, sharpens the focus as to the extent that key social characteristics are already factored in – or not.

Literature
Berger, L.; Eser, U.: Naturschutz und Soziale Fragen: Theoretische Grundlagen. In: Berger, L. ed.: Das Soziale im Naturschutz. Theorie – Praxis – Handlungserfordernisse. BFN-Schriften 605. Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Bonn, 7-21, 2021.
Jörissen, J.; Kopfmüller, J.; Brandl, V.: Ein integratives Konzept nachhaltiger Entwicklung. Wissenschaftliche Berichte, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, 1999.
Raworth, K.: A Safe and Just Space for Humanity. Oxfam Discussion Paper, Oxfam International, February 2012.
United Nations: Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 2015.

Speaker: Felix Bröcker (Max Rubner-Institut)

98 Assessing the potential effectiveness and equity of companies’ forest-focused supply chain policies in the cocoa sector of West Africa.

Keywords
Deforestation, Cocoa, equity, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, supply chain
Introduction
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana lead global cocoa production, but the cocoa sector faces significant challenges related to smallholder poverty, deforestation, and child labour (Fountain and Huetz-Adams, 2022). Over 60% of cocoa from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire is produced by smallholder farmers who cultivate an average of 2-5 hectares and rely on it as their main source of income (Bymolt et al., 2018). More than 30% of cocoa producers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire live below the extreme poverty line with about 78% earning less than a living income (van Vliet et al., 2021).

Smallholder farmers are considered a major driver of deforestation (Higonnet et al., 2017; Renier et al., 2023), expanding both cocoa cultivation and food crops into forested lands including protected areas (Kalischek et al., 2023, Fountain and Huezt-Adams, 2022).

In response, most global companies within the cocoa and chocolate industry in recent years have adopted a range of forest-focused supply chain policies (FSPs) to address the environmental and social issues in the sector. FSPs are companies’ 'formal and/or public declarations about how forest impacts are considered within their supply chain” (Garrett et al., 2021). They usually consist of reducing or eliminating deforestation, and/or encouraging forest conservation and restoration (Garrett et al., 2021; Lambin and Thorlakson, 2018).

Concerns have been raised about the effectiveness and equity or fairness of the companies' FSPs considering deforestation rates and socio-economic challenges in the cocoa sector (Higonnet et al., 2017). Effectiveness in this context refers to the ability of a policy to conserve forests and prevent deforestation in cocoa production, while "equity" means creating equal opportunities for all cocoa producers to comply with, participate in, and benefit from these policies (Grabs et al., 2021; McDermott et al., 2013). Research suggests that FSPs can be effective in reducing deforestation depending on the stringency, scope and target of the FSP and the market share of the companies that have adopted FSPs (i.e. how much of the supply they source) (Garrett et al., 2019; Levy et al., 2023). However, the implementation of highly stringent FSPs can lead to a higher exclusion of producers that are less able to comply resulting in unequitable effects.

Objectives
The objective of this paper is twofold: Firstly, to integrate primary documents, field interviews, and observations to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the diverse theories of change guiding the implementation of FSPs initiatives within specific regions. Secondly, to perform a theory-driven ex-ante assessment to gauge the potential effectiveness and equity of the FSP's design and implementation strategies.

Methods
We used a stratified purposeful sampling approach to select respondents for semi-structured and in-depth interviews. This method ensured that key stakeholder groups within the cocoa sector were included. The data collection process began with a comprehensive review of grey literature and company communications (such as sustainability policies, reports) to gain a broader understanding of the design and implementation of companies' FSPs, as well as the supply chain structure. This informed the selection of analytical frameworks, which guided the design of the interview guides, the selection of interview participants, and the data analysis. The interview guides were also influenced by previous studies in the palm (Grabs and Garrett, 2023) and cattle (Cammelli et al., 2022) sectors, which examined the effectiveness and equity of FSPs. We conducted a total of 91 interviews in both countries, involving cocoa traders, chocolate manufacturers, local buying companies, non-governmental and non-profit organizations (NGOs), state institutions, research institutions, cocoa sector experts, third-party certification bodies, and farmer cooperatives.

Results
We identified seven FSP implementation themes across the companies we assessed. These seven implementation themes are: i) productivity enhancement, ii) monitoring and traceability, iii) promotion of agroforestry, iv) community engagement, v) market incentives, vi) collaboration and partnership activities, and vii) alternative livelihood support activities. Overall, many FSP implementation activities aim to increase cocoa farm yields for farmers in companies' direct supply chain. This contrasts with activities related to community engagement, alternative livelihood support, and collaboration and partnership, which do not directly affect productivity.

Furthermore, we organised the implementation activities into three pathways of influence adapted from Bernstein and Cashore (2012) to better understand the theories of change of companies FSPs. Our analysis show that companies' theory of change tends to focus on creating enabling conditions and providing incentives (both positive and negative), with less attention given to norms and values. This confirms the narrative that increasing farmers' income through enhanced productivity will discourage farmers from expanding into forest areas. The norms pathway requires activities that activate farmers' pro-environmental behaviour and conservation values and is considered to have the most lasting impact.

Regarding the potential effectiveness and equity of companies' FSPs, we found deficiencies in how companies define their targets and commitments, which could reduce the effectiveness of the policies. For instance, while most companies have pledged to eliminate all forms of deforestation from their supply chain in their policy documents, we have found that companies only address illegal deforestation, specifically protected area deforestation caused by cocoa, based on legal definitions of forests. Additionally, the design and implementation of companies' current FSPs fall short in involving smallholder cocoa farmers in the policy design and implementation, as well as in benefit sharing, such as paying farmers a living income price. In some cases, farmers are only consulted after the policy has already been designed. This creates equity issues that contribute to the failure of the policies.

Nevertheless, we found that companies are performing relatively well in terms of monitoring and enforcement, primarily due to the widespread adoption of third-party verification systems such as Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade certification standards. However, the impacts of these systems are limited due to poor targeting and definition.

Conclusion
Overall, the design and implementation of current FSPs seem to have limited impact on addressing deforestation and improving farmer wellbeing, attributed to their insufficient targeting or definition, inadequate benefit sharing for farmers and lack of inclusion of smallholder farmers in FSP formulation and implementation.

Speaker: Thomas Addoah (University of Cambridge)

99 The symptoms of food self-sufficiency ideology in the food system and its effects on food security- water insecurity nexus in Iran

Propagated by Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), and his successor Ayatollah Khamenei, self-sufficiency in food production especially wheat is one of the ideological pillars of the IRI since its creation in 1979. Primarily, self-sufficiency was an attempt for independence from the confronting sides in the Cold War, i.e. the United States, the Soviet Union and their allies. The idea of self-sufficiency especially food items has even found its way to the constitution of the new Islamic regime in 1979. Later on, the self-sufficiency policy in food production particularly wheat has been followed continuously even after the end of the Cold War by large investments in irrigation infrastructure and several support schemes for farmers in Iran. Nevertheless, continuing this policy aiming to establish self-sufficiency is challenged by two factors: population growth and diminishing disposable water resources for irrigation. Firstly, the IRI followed a population growth policy since 1979. As a result, the population turned from 36 million in 1979 to 83.2 million in 2023. Thus, the size of the domestic food supply needed to establish food security has increased strongly. Secondly, agricultural production generally and wheat production specifically require sufficient availability of water resources. However, as Iran is dominated by an arid and semi-arid climate, variation in the level of precipitation is high. Furthermore, precipitation is decreasing due to climate change, negatively affecting the rainfed and irrigated agricultural production systems, particularly for wheat production.

Nevertheless, the IRI is insisting on food self-sufficiency which should be primarily achieved through irrigation. This persistence of self-sufficiency by the IRI as the main agricultural policy has induced massive expansion of the irrigation wells, massive expansion of reservoirs over seasonal or permanent rivers, massive energy subsidies (electricity or fossil) for water pumping from surface or groundwater resources and even employing unconventional water resources such as treated or untreated wastewater for irrigation. Through this policy, the number of wells has increased from less than 60000 in 1976 (before the Islamic revolution in 1979) to more than a million in 2021. Additionally, the number of critical aquifers has increased from 53 in 1978 before the Islamic revolution to 410 in 2023 (the total number of aquifers is 609). These are aquifers that have negative water balance and further digging of wells is forbidden in their area. Additionally, the whole country is suffering from massive land subsidence (one of the highest in the world). Furthermore, despite providing huge subsidies for pumping, the capacity of aquifers is reducing due to over-exploitation of groundwater resources. As a result, the water quality of groundwater resources which is the main source of domestic water demand is reducing. The climate change has also affected the available water from rivers and dam reservoirs. Therefore, there are water shortages for both irrigation and domestic mainly in summer steadily causing tension in different parts of the country. Despite all these consequences of the primary food self-sufficiency policy that is introduced to the society and environment, the IRI has no plan to give it up. More than 44 years of support by IRI to the agriculture sector through massive subsidies has created rural communities that are heavily dependent on subsidized irrigation water and subsidized energy for pumping that is an issue of political economy (Jaghdani & Kvartiuk, 2021).

The food system conceptual framework provides a possibility to look into the food self-sufficiency policy as an influential factor in the national food system of Iran besides other factors in an interdisciplinary way. This conceptual approach allows for formulating the role of self-sufficiency policy in a condition such as Iran that 1) depends on irrigation water for food production 2) meets water shortages for domestic usage. By integrating the political economy framework for reform (Vos et al., 2023) into the food system conceptual framework of HLPE (2020), we try to formulate the possible danger that the contemporary food self-sufficiency policy of IRI has for future water insecurity of Iran.

Therefore, in this study primarily, the historical background of the self-sufficiency ideology is analysed. Furthermore, other factors that affect the food system at the national level are studied by following a cause-and-effect approach and they are extracted from available literature namely: population growth, climate change, food security, agri-food trade, laws, regulations and the political economy of irrigation water subsidy. Furthermore, the historical statistics on water resources development plans and projects, water extraction for irrigation, food production and food trade which are acquired from different official sources are presented. Additionally, the list of rules and regulations that guided the policies and budgets for food self-sufficiency are presented. Finally, by employing the adapted food system conceptual framework, the danger of the available self-sufficiency policy for both the food system and future water insecurity are analysed. We conclude that food systems are not just a linear chain of activities spreading from production to consumption (Bene et al. 2019) but it has feedback from systems activities to other activities. While food security is one outcome of food systems, self-sufficiency is not the way forward because of negative feedback loops with other elements of the food system such as water insecurity in future.

References
Béné, C., Prager, S. D., Achicanoy, H. A. E., Toro, P. A., Lamotte, L., Cedrez, C. B., & Mapes, B. R. (2019). Understanding food systems drivers: A critical review of the literature. Global Food Security, 23, 149–159.

HLPE (2020). Food security and nutrition: building a global narrative towards 2030. Committee on World Food Security. High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE). Report No 15

Jaghdani, T. J., & Kvartiuk, V. (2021). The Energy-Water Nexus in Iran: The Political Economy of Energy Subsidies for Groundwater Pumping. In S. Hülsmann & M. Jampani (Eds.), A Nexus Approach for Sustainable Development (1st ed., pp. 107–128). Springer, Cham.

Vos, R., Martin, W., & Resnick, D. (2023). The Political Economy of Reforming Agricultural Support Policies. In D. Resnick & J. Swinnen (Eds.), The Political Economy of Food System Transformation (pp. 54–79). Oxford University

Speaker: Dr Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani (Leibniz-Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien (IAMO))

100 Transforming Lebanon's Food System: A Collaborative Approach for SDGs and Agenda 2030

Transforming Lebanon's Food System: A Collaborative Approach for SDGs and Agenda 2030

This research proposes a comprehensive national pathway for transforming Lebanon's food system towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Agenda 2030. Building on stakeholder dialogues and the UNFSS+2 summit, the project outlines key action areas for a more sustainable, resilient, and inclusive food system.

The methodology employs a systematic analysis of the Lebanese food system, identifying critical areas for intervention. These include ensuring access to safe and nutritious food, promoting sustainable consumption patterns, fostering nature-positive production practices, advancing equitable livelihoods for all actors, and building resilience against crises.

Data for the research is drawn from stakeholder consultations, legislative framework assessments, government reports, and UN insights. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) aligned with SDGs and official reports track progress towards a sustainable food system.

This collaborative effort is supported by UN agencies in Lebanon and the UN Coordination Hub, further strengthened by benchmarking exercises with other transforming food systems. The resulting pathway document serves as a shared vision for stakeholders and is subject to continuous updates.

The research emphasizes the urgency for transformation, particularly considering Lebanon's ability to function despite recent crises. Moving forward, the project will refine the existing document and initiate its implementation.

Keywords: Food system transformation, Sustainable Development Goals, Pathway document, Key Performance Indicators, Science to policy interface.

Speaker: Abed Al Kareem Yehya (University of Kassel)

14:55 Open Display

Social Impact and Equity in Food Systems

101 The China Shock and Structural Transformation: The Case of Soy in Brazil

One of the most significant implications, although often neglected, of the recent rise of China as an economic power has been a large positive shock in demand for agricultural commodities–and has been labeled the “other” China shock (Hansen and Wingender, 2023). Featuring prominently on the receiving end of this shock, particularly via growing demand for soybeans, is Brazil, a country in which the production of this crop more than tripled in less than two decades, from less than 50 million tonnes in 2004 to almost 122 million tonnes in 2020 (IBGE, 2021). With China as its main buyer, Brazil has recently overtaken the United States to become the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans (FAO, 2023).[1] Among its many uses, this legume is particularly in demand to serve as animal feed.

This paper examines how this boom in soybean production, driven to a large extent by Chinese demand, led to a structural transformation, ranging from the patterns of economic activity (and its sectoral composition) to spatial inequality, in Brazilian municipalities.[2] By focusing on the role of the China shock to analyze the consequences of Brazil recently becoming an agricultural powerhouse (Hopewell, 2017), I hope not only to bridge literatures that have much to contribute to each other, but shed more light on the direction of causality. To do so, I exploit two sources of plausibly exogenous variation to propose a new instrumental variable for Chinese demand for soy. Moreover, the analysis builds upon panel data for all Brazilian municipalities, and is designed to be able to capture crucial spatial dynamics, in particular by making use of a novel measure of spatial inequality–aspects that have mostly been absent in the related literature.

Although exports of other agricultural commodities produced in Brazil have also risen, soybeans account, by far, for the largest increases in revenues and planted area. Moreover, differently from traditional, subsistence agriculture, soy–which is responsible for approximately 14% of the country's export revenues (MDIC, 2022), and is planted by more than 250,000 producers in over 1,500 municipalities all over the country's territory (Martinelli et al., 2017)–is a huge business, highly capital intensive and reliant on constant technological innovation (Hopewell, 2017, Navarro and Pedroso, 2018).[3] Importantly, it is “one of the least labor-intensive agricultural activities” (Bustos et al., 2016, p. 1328), and usually the “domain of wealthy agribusiness entrepreneurs” (Fearnside, 2001, p. 28). As such, the crop is often linked to extreme income concentration (Kaimowitz et al., 1999).

Therefore, it is not surprising that what happens to soybeans in Brazil may have implications that go well beyond the agricultural sector. As Bustos et al. (2016, 2020) show, the introduction of genetically engineered soybean seeds in Brazil by itself has had profound effects on the structure of the economy, including positive spillovers to the manufacturing sector, and increases in capital accumulation. In the case of the China shock, it is not yet clear what the consequences of a potential trade-induced specialization are. On the one hand, there is a growing concern that this agricultural boon might only benefit a few, and contribute to further (premature) deindustrialization (and “re-primarization”) in Brazil (The Economist, 2022).[4] There is, however, the possibility that–similarly to what Bustos et al. (2016, 2020) observe, and in line with a strand of the structural transformation literature (Foster and Rosenzweig, 2008, Hornbeck and Keskin, 2015, Gollin et al., 2021, Gollin and Kaboski, 2023)–also in this case productivity gains in the agricultural sector, spearheaded by soy, might lead to broader and long-lasting socio-economic gains (VanWey et al., 2013, Weinhold et al., 2013, Garrett and Rausch, 2016, Martinelli et al., 2017, Sánchez-Ancochea, 2021, Piras et al., 2021).[5]

Nevertheless, the consequences for economic inequality are often neglected in the structural transformation literature, even though there are good reasons to expect significant adjustments in the distribution of income and wealth–especially when considering forces that affect factor endowments (Sokoloff and Engerman, 2000). Hence, I devote significant attention to examine who benefits from this demand shock. To do so, I employ a measure of spatial inequality, recently proposed by Weidmann and Theunissen (2021), based on light density data at the grid level. In addition to being available at yearly intervals, it has the considerable advantage of not being constrained to administrative borders.[6]

Footnotes:

[1] Soybeans are one of the world's most commercialized commodities, reaching a total trade volume of US$64 billion in 2020 (Escobar et al., 2020). As citizens in emerging economies–in China in particular–become more affluent, and adapt their dietary patterns accordingly, the growing appetite for meat has led to a substantial increase in the demand for soybeans (da Silva et al., 2017).

[2] For a review of the literature on trade-induced structural transformation, see Alessandria et al. (2023).

[3] As Hopewell (2017) puts it, this transformation both confirms and defies Prebisch's (1962) well-known theory that agriculture cannot be an engine for economic growth and development. Contra Prebisch, “the rapid expansion of its agribusiness exports contributed to fostering [Brazil's] macroeconomic stability, fuelling high rates of economic growth and boosting government revenues” (Hopewell, 2017, p. 3).

[4] So far, I abstract away from the role of the conventional, supply-side China shock (Autor et al., 2013, 2016, 2020, Costa et al., 2016). This is work in progress.

[5] Although not the object of this paper, a major drawback is, of course, the environmental damage associated with large-scale soybean plantation. See, for instance, Fearnside (2001), Nepstad et al. (2006), Barona et al. (2010), Hargrave and Kis-Katos (2013), Dreoni et al. (2021), Song et al. (2021), and Carreira et al. (2024).

[6] Previous literature has, at best, relied on the municipal Gini index of income inequality, which is available only every ten years, and presents limited and/or descriptive evidence only (e.g., Weinhold et al., 2013, Martinelli et al., 2017).

Speaker: Samuel Siewers (Uni Göttingen)

102 Gender differences and the welfare effects of food crop commercialization in Malawi

The main objectives of this paper are twofold; first, to highlight the gender gap in food crop commercialization and in key household welfare indicators with an understanding that food crop commercialization touches on two highly contested household domains that are, in a classical sense, gendered (the domestic domain and the market domain). Secondly, the paper set out to investigate the nexus between food crop commercialization and household welfare, particularly on multidimensional poverty (MPI) and household food security and nutrition. The paper establishes that, compared to other household types, male-headed households with a female dominant voice have favorable outcomes in terms of food commercialization and household welfare indicators. We also find that food crop commercialization reduces MPI if at least 39 percent of food crops produced are sold. Below this threshold, food crop commercialization has negative effects on MPI. Additionally, the paper finds that food crop commercialization is likely to have a positive effect on food security. Various policy implications are drawn from the findings.

Speaker: David Zingwe (University of Malawi)

103 Urban agriculture and its contribution to household food and nutrition security

Introduction
Urban agriculture is a livelihood diversification strategy, which can potentially alleviate urban food insecurity for low-income communities. Unfortunately, despite the positive prospects it proffers, urban agriculture has not been tolerated in most African cities as it is often viewed as a rural activity, which detracts from the modern city image. In addition, despite the evident benefits of urban agriculture to the farmers, its potential is constrained by a complex of factors that include land tenure insecurity, erratic water access, small plot sizes, inadequate capital for optimising plot productivity and ambivalent application of urban land-use laws. As a result, there is little reliable evidence on the impact on food and nutrition security indicators. It is also uncertain as to the characteristics of households practicing urban agriculture. This study was meant to provide a solid evidence base for policy makers and practitioners on the impact of urban agriculture on food and nutrition security, using a case study of Zimbabwe.

Methodology
Data collection was done using an android–based structured household tool. Data was collected from 13 421 households from poverty-stricken areas (i.e., medium-density, high density, and peri-urban) were drawn using the Probability Proportional to Population Size (PPS) method. Primary data collection took place from 25 January to 10 February 2023. The primary outcome used to determine sample size was food insecurity prevalence and sample size was such that this could be reported at domain level with at least 95% confidence. The households were selected using systematic random sampling within the sampled domains which had been divided into enumeration areas (EAs).

Data analysis
Chi-square analysis was used to determine whether there were statistically significant differences between households practicing urban agriculture and those not practicing urban agriculture with regards to gender, marital status, religion, education of household head. Mann Whitney U test was used to compare medians across non normal data. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the household characteristics and outcomes associated with practicing urban agriculture.

Results
A total of 13,384 households were sampled and of these, 99.5% (13,321) accepted to be interviewed and 0.3% (37) refused. At least 22.2% of the sampled urban households reported they were engaging in urban agriculture. There was a significant difference in proportions of households practicing urban agriculture versus non practicing across provinces (Χ2 =870.897; df=9; p=0.000), marital status (Χ2 =40.9; df=5; p=0.000), employment status (Χ2 =23.850; df=3; p=0.000), educational level (Χ2 =54.215; df=7; p=0.000), and religion of household head (Χ2 =54.636; df=10; p=0.000). However, there was no difference in proportions of households practicing and not practicing urban agriculture by gender of household head (Χ2 =0.660; df=1; p=0.417).

The most practiced form of urban agriculture was crop/horticulture production (20.2%), followed by mixed agriculture (crop/horticulture and livestock production) (1.3%) and then livestock production (0.5%). The most grown crop by the households was maize (47.3%) followed by leafy vegetables (28.8%). Yams (0.3%) were the least commonly grown crop. The results also show the diversity of crops grown by urban households, i.e., cereal grain, tubers, leafy vegetables, and bulbs were the common food groups cultivated.

Determinants of practicing urban agriculture
Households that are more likely to practice urban agriculture had the following characteristics: high income earning households, household head chronically ill, and household size. Increasing the age of household head by one year increased the likelihood of the households practicing urban agriculture by 0.5% at the 1% level of significance, all things being constant. Similarly, a 1% increase in household income was associated with a 0.5% probability of the household practicing urban agriculture at the 1% level of significance. More so, at the 1% level of significance, households with a chronically ill head had a 3.3% probability of practicing urban agriculture while large sized households had a 1.5% likelihood of engaging in urban agriculture as compared to smaller size households, ceteris paribus. In addition, practicing urban agriculture was associated with a decrease in consumption or livelihoods coping and with an increase in the household dietary diversity score and an increase in consumption of vitamin A rich foods at the 1% level of significance all things being equal. The main barrier highlighted was lack of access to land (71.7%) followed by lack of interest (7.5%). On the positive side, city or council by-laws were not a barrier to urban agriculture as only 2.6% of the sampled household indicated city or council by-law being an impediment.

Discussion
Our study revealed that urban agriculture contributed to better diet quality outcomes and was associated with a decrease in consumption and livelihoods coping strategies as compared to non-practicing households, meaning that practicing households were more food secure. Unlike other findings in literature that urban agriculture is practiced by low-income households, our study revealed all things being equal, higher income was associated with higher probability of practising urban agriculture. High income earning households are likely to have larger pieces of land to practice urban agriculture in their backyards. Unfortunately, many of the people who could benefit from urban agriculture live in dense and overcrowded settlements, where they do not have the land on which to grow food.

Conclusion and Policy Implication
This study sort to provide a solid evidence base for policy makers and practitioners on the impact of urban agriculture on food and nutrition security, using a case study of Zimbabwe. The results showed that urban agriculture contributes to better food and nutrition outcomes, which include decrease in consumption and livelihoods coping strategies, increased household dietary diversity, and increased in consumption of vitamin A rich foods. Lack of access to land was the main barrier impeding urban agriculture and there is need for governments to deliberately set aside land in the periphery of urban areas to promote urban agriculture. More so, policies to guide and support urban agriculture must be implemented in the context of a food systems approach alongside measures to avoid land degradation whilst upholding public health.

Speakers: Lesley Macheka (Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology), Dr George Kembo (Food and Nutrition Council)

104 The community food store – a case study of the local social impact initiative.

Keywords
Community resilience, food sharing, social impact
Introduction
Food retail corporations are the vital global actors of the food distribution and consumption landscape. The future of Sustainable Food Systems and the Sustainable Food Value Chains transformation heavily depends on their ability to align key business performance indicators and sustainable development goals. This intention is formally managed through implementation of the corporate ESG Policy and Strategy imposing measurable commitments and timelines for reducing negative impact on Environment and Society.
However, disregard some positive examples and best practices demonstrated by the industry leaders, the velocity of change does not match the urgency. Besides, the traditional corporate top-down management style lacks the focus on the true values of sustainable development aimed at local community resilience. The paper presents the practical results and observations derived from the alternative approach utilized by the food retail company whereby the local people became the drivers and immediate beneficiaries of the sustainability agenda put into real action.
Objective
The purpose of the research is to explore, test and improve a feasibility of the idea that an ordinary neighborhood grocery store operated by the food retail corporation can be turned into a highly demanded social center for local community care, support and sharing. It questions the effectiveness of the large-scale corporate philanthropy programmes and financial aid as opposed to the local self-sustained community driven initiatives supported by the store employees and resources.
Method
Authors used a product development methodology which consists of iterative MVP piloting, testing, improving and scaling based on qualitative and quantitative analysis of surveys, key informant interviews, employee feedback; social, media and business metrics corresponding to each roll-out phase.
Findings
The community food store initiative was proved successful in empowering local people to practice mutual care, support and sharing. It provided the required inspiration, tools, resources and techniques to the community leaders living in the grocery store neighborhood, including store employees, as the most effective, interested and genuine social change agents. As a result, a current number of the total participation exceeds 7 million people per year with a continuously growing network of more than 1,350 stores to date. The community food store initiative became the most profound and popular social impact programme in the company's history.
Conclusion
Local community involvement is vital for promoting and implementing sustainable development goals which is possible only when local people own the initiative and continuously demonstrate engagement in such activities. The corporate social responsibility resources of the large food retail company shared with local communities ignite the self-driven and self-sustained culture of mutual care, support and sharing. The community food store initiative makes communities prepared and equipped for resolving local social issues in a proactive, relevant and personal sense. It proves to be more effective and socially involving than any of the well-established and budgeted large-scale corporate philanthropy and food sharing programmes managed and executed from the top down the company hierarchy.
The conceptual idea and implementation guidelines of the community food store initiative have a high potential to become an innovative contribution to the Sustainable Food Systems and the Sustainable Food Value Chains global toolkit.

Speakers: Mrs Anna Guseinova (Master of Social Anthropology, Social Entrepreneur), Mrs Olga Samoylova (Independent Sustainability Practitioner, Social Entrepreneur)

14:30 Open Display

15:00 Coffee break

World Café - Food Loss and Waste

105 Food Loss and Waste

In 2011, FAO estimated that about one third of the world’s food goes lost or wasted. About 60% is lost in supply chains, while the other 40% is wasted after retail, at the level of the consumer. To produce all that food, we need land, water, inputs, energy. It requires labor and effort and generates an environmental cost. Food loss and waste generates about 24% of greenhouse gas emissions from food, or about 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts to reduce food loss and waste are needed and the SDG target 12.3 aims to “by 2030, halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses.”

In this World Café we take a closer look at some questions that arise around the target of reducing food loss and waste.

Table 1 - Conceptualizing Food Loss and Waste
In our common understanding, food loss and waste refer to the loss, destruction or lost value of a product that has first been generated. That means, it existed and has had at some point in time a certain value. But then, (some part of) its value was lost. This speaks to the imagination as an absurd waste of resources and something that should obviously be avoided. Yet, how conceptually different is food loss and waste from other inefficiencies (i.e., potential value/output that has never been realized in the first place) and does this justify a specific focus? Could some level of food waste be an acceptable trade-off for other efficiencies, such as higher productivity or lower costs? What should policy makers prioritize?

Table 2 - Technological Innovations
Technological innovations offer significant potential to reduce food loss and waste by improving efficiency (e.g., precision agriculture), extending shelf life (e.g., solar-powered refrigeration and vacuum packing) and enhancing traceability and communication across the supply chain (e.g., blockchain and online platforms). However, the adoption and impact of these technologies are influenced by regional differences in infrastructure, economic capacity, and specific challenges within the supply chain. Which technologies look most promising across low-, middle- and high-income countries? Does the stage of the supply chain at which these technologies are to be adopted coincide with the stage at which most of the economic and environmental costs of food loss and waste occur? What are the barriers to adopting these technologies at the stage of the greatest loss and waste in each context?

Table 3 - Food loss and waste and Global Food Security and Nutrition
The issue of food insecurity has many faces, as it encompasses not only hunger, but also poor dietary quality, especially in terms of fruit and vegetable consumption. These foods, although essential for a balanced and nutritious diet, are highly perishable, making them particularly vulnerable to food loss and waste. While in many high-income countries fruits and vegetables are wasted at the retail and consumer level, in lower-income countries, higher rates of loss due to factors such as improper handling, lack of cold storage, and transportation challenges, often drive-up prices and make them less affordable, especially for those already facing food insecurity. What is the connection between food loss and waste and global food security and nutrition? Can a focus on food loss and waste address global food security and nutrition? What approaches are needed?

Table 4 - The Need for Data on Food Loss and Waste
Measuring food loss and waste along the supply chain is critical for understanding the scale of the problem and identifying where interventions can be most effective. However, obtaining accurate and comprehensive data is challenging due to the complexity and variability of food systems across different regions and stages of the supply chain. What data do we have available on food loss and waste, along the supply chain? How does data availability vary across different regions and supply chain stages? Are these data comprehensive and accurate enough to inform policies? Is there enough consensus over definitions and metrics to come up with comparable and useful statistics?

Speakers: Adriana Bernal, Liesbeth Colen (University of Göttingen)

World Café - Meat and Animal-source Products

106 Meat and Animal-source Products

Despite a long history of animal source foods (ASF) consumption, many people have begun to look for alternatives to traditional ASF consumption and have advocated for a change in the composition of our diet. However, what could happen if the entire industry suddenly ceased to exist?

In this World Café we take a closer look at some questions that arise around the gaps and challenges posed by a meat-free diet.

Table 1 - Nutritional gap and challenges: What are the potential nutritional deficiencies that could arise from the elimination of meat from diets? Could they be addressed?

Meat is a substantial source of essential nutrients like protein, iron, vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids. While plant-based foods could provide many of the nutrients found in meat, the bioavailability—or the extent to which the body can absorb and use these nutrients—differs between food groups. This could lead to nutritional deficiencies, especially in populations with limited access to diverse food sources. This table will discuss the challenges of ensuring adequate nutrient intake in a meat-free world, exploring the nutritional roles that meat currently plays and considering the feasibility of alternative sources of these nutrients in different regions and for different demographics, as well as potential public health strategies to address widespread nutritional gaps.

Table 2 - Behavior and lifestyle changes: How might the elimination of meat from diets affect cultural practices and social norms? Could societies adapt?

Meat consumption is deeply embedded in many cultures and social practices, from religious rituals to traditional cuisine. The shift to a meat-free world would not only change diets but also disrupt cultural identities and social structures. This table will explore the cultural significance of meat in various societies and the potential resistance to change. The discussion will also consider how alternative dietary practices could be integrated into these cultures, the role of education and awareness in facilitating this transition and the potential for new traditions to emerge that align with a meat-free lifestyle. Participants will explore strategies to support societies in this transition, including the role of habit formation, behavioral nudges and social support networks. The conversation will also consider the potential role of food technology in creating appealing meat alternatives that satisfy taste and texture preferences.

Table 3 - Production and supply chain challenges: What are the economic implications of a decline in meat production? Could global supply chains be restructured to ensure fair markets and food security?

A potential decline of meat consumption would lead to a transformation of the global agricultural sector. Furthermore, the global supply chains for meat are complex and deeply integrated into the world economy. Transitioning away from meat would lead to a complete restructuring and shifts in market powers across these supply chains. This table will explore the challenges of shifting from meat production to plant-based agriculture. Factors such as land use, infrastructure needs, employment and market power will be discussed. Participants will explore the logistics of producing, processing and distributing plant-based foods on a global scale, as well as the potential role of technology and market powers in supporting this new supply chain.

Table 4 - Environmental and sustainability challenges: How would a meat-free world impact climate change, land use and biodiversity?

The production of ASF, particularly beef, is one of the most land-intensive agricultural practices, often linked to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Meat production also contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption and other environmental pressures. A global shift away from meat could free up large areas of land for reforestation or other uses. But the transition poses the challenge of balancing reforestation efforts with the need for expansion of plant-based agriculture to ensure food security. Furthermore, the environmental benefits of a meat-free diet would also depend on the implementation of sustainable practices within the expanding plant-based agriculture. This table will explore the potential environmental benefits and challenges associated with changes in land use, considering how to optimize land for both food production and ecosystem restoration. Participants will also discuss the implications for biodiversity, both in terms of preserving habitats and managing agricultural biodiversity.

Speakers: Ainslee Erhard (University of Goettingen), Jasmin Wehner (Universität Göttingen)

World Café - Resilience of Food Systems

107 Resilience of Food Systems

In this World Café, we will explore the concept of resilience as it applies to food systems, how it can be measured, and how it differs from related concepts like sustainability and vulnerability. Despite its frequent use among researchers and practitioners, the term "resilience" remains ambiguous, with no clear consensus on its definition. This lack of clarity makes it challenging to translate the concept into a measurable index. Nonetheless, many donors and development agencies are increasingly investing in resilient practices and programs, particularly in response to shocks such as climate change. Therefore, during this World Café, we will examine various definitions of resilience, compare them with similar concepts that are sometimes incorrectly used interchangeably, and expand the idea of resilience to encompass the entire food system, taking into account the diverse actors and dimensions involved. We will pay special attention to the capacity of food systems to adapt to different types of shocks.

Table 1 - General definition of resilience (capacity vs. outcome)
What is resilience for you? Is it an inner capacity that each person has, or can it be observed only after a shock? Ex ante vs ex post

Table 2 - Resilience of a food system
How can we apply the concept of resilience to the entire food system? What should we consider? How can a food system be resilient?

Table 3 - Resilience and adaptation to shocks
What are the measures/interventions/policies to be implemented in order to prevent and adapt to shocks? Different interventions for different shocks --> focus on shocks related to food systems (climate change and extreme weather events)

Table 4 - Resilience vs. vulnerability vs. Sustainability
What are the differences between resilience, vulnerability, and sustainability? Important to distinguish the concepts, each concept is associated with different interventions and policies

Speakers: Bruno Paz (University of Göttingen), Dr Margherita Squarcina (University of Göttingen)

World Café - Standards and Labels

108 Standards and Labels

Certification systems nowadays often emphasize strict compliance with predefined standards, ensuring uniformity and a high level of quality across regions and producers. This approach allegedly creates trust and transparency for consumers, who are assured that certified products meet rigorous benchmarks. However, such a rigid system may not always account for the diversity of local practices and conditions, potentially excluding small-scale or marginalized producers who struggle to meet these standards. In contrast to strict compliance, an inclusiveness-focused approach could adapt certification standards to the local realities of producers. This flexibility can make certification more accessible to a broader range of farmers, including those in developing regions with unique environmental or socio-economic challenges. By fostering inclusiveness, certification can support multiple sustainability dimensions and equitable development, ensuring that smaller or less-resourced producers aren't left behind.

In this World Café we take a closer look at some questions that arise around the discussion of whether certification should focus more on inclusiveness, rather than on strict compliance.

Table 1 - Conceptualizing inclusiveness: What is the meaning of an inclusiveness-focused approach? What are the reasons behind exclusion?

The concept of inclusiveness in certification systems might go beyond merely adapting standards to accommodate diverse local practices and conditions. While flexibility in standards is crucial, true inclusiveness also requires addressing the structural barriers that prevent marginalized farmers from accessing certification opportunities. In many cases, the exclusion of small-scale or marginalized producers is not due to an inability to meet strict criteria, but rather because certification efforts are concentrated in areas that are easier to assess or more economically viable for companies. This can leave out farmers in remote, less productive, or socio-economically disadvantaged regions, perpetuating inequality within supply chains. This table will explore the broader dimensions of inclusiveness and discuss what might be the requirements for certification systems to achieve it.

Table 2 - Consumer preferences: Are consumers interested in products that contribute to broader sustainability goals by fostering inclusiveness, even if they are more difficult to measure and monitor?

As consumers become more aware of global challenges like climate change, social justice and sustainability, their purchasing decisions are increasingly influenced by a desire to support products that align with ethical and environmental values. While some consumers prioritize products with certifications that guarantee strict compliance with high measurable standards—often linked to quality and safety—there is a growing interest in certifications that reflect a broader set of values. This shift suggests a potential preference for composite labels that integrate multiple dimensions, such as environmental impact, ethical sourcing and social equity, rather than focusing solely on one aspect. This table will explore what drives these evolving consumer preferences, how they are shaped by demographics, regions and personal values, and what the implications might be for the future of certification systems and market demands. Participants will also discuss the challenges and opportunities of developing and communicating multi-dimensional certification labels.

Table 3 - Implementation by companies: What strategies could companies adopt to make certification processes more inclusive while maintaining credibility?

For companies committed to a compliance-focused certification, the challenge is in consistently meeting high standards across their supply chains. This requires robust internal systems, rigorous training and ongoing audits, which can be resource intensive. Implementing inclusiveness in certification requires balancing flexibility with the need for credible, trustworthy standards. Companies must find ways to adapt certification to local contexts without compromising the overall integrity of the certification. This table will explore how companies can engage with local producers, build capacity and create scalable yet adaptable standards. The discussion will also consider how inclusiveness can be maintained across diverse supply chains, ensuring that smallholders and marginalized groups are not excluded from certification benefits.

Table 4 - Implications for producers: What are the implications for producers in developing countries?

For producers in developing countries, the implications of certification systems—whether compliance-focused or inclusiveness-focused—are profound. Strict compliance-focused certifications can offer access to premium markets and increased income but often require investments in technology, infrastructure, and training that smaller or less-resourced producers may struggle to afford. This can exacerbate inequalities, leaving behind those who are unable to meet these stringent standards. On the other hand, inclusiveness-focused certifications seek to broaden access by adapting standards to local conditions and addressing structural barriers, such as geographic inaccessibility or socio-economic disadvantages. While these inclusive approaches can open up new opportunities for a wider range of producers, they also face challenges, particularly in maintaining global recognition and trust. This table will explore the economic and social impacts of both compliance- and inclusiveness-focused certifications on producers in developing countries. Participants will discuss how inclusiveness can be balanced with the need for credibility and market acceptance and what strategies might be employed to ensure that certification systems support rather than hinder the development and sustainability of small-scale and marginalized producers.

Speakers: Marlene Wätzold (Georg-August University of Göttingen), Petros Mkandawire

World Café - Technology and Innovation

109 Technology and Innovation

Innovations in agriculture not only promise greater efficiency and productivity, but could be crucial in addressing global challenges such as food security, climate change, and sustainable development. While technology and innovation hold such immense potential to transform agriculture, how accessible are they to smallholder farmers, especially in developing regions? How do we make agricultural innovation more inclusive?

In this world café, we will explore the challenges that hinder access, adoption sand effective implementation of agricultural innovations by smallholder farmers. From the role of traditional knowledge to the role of public policies.

Table 1 - Diffusion of innovation in value chains: How does technological innovation travel along value chains in agriculture? What factors influence its adoption?

The adoption of new technologies is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic incentives, infrastructure, access to knowledge and information, risk perceptions, peer influence, cultural norms and the compatibility of the technology with existing practices. This table will explore how innovations in agriculture—such as precision farming, biotechnology and digital platforms—are adopted along value chains. Participants will discuss barriers to diffusion, such as the gap between innovators and end-users and strategies to facilitate broader adoption, especially among smallholders and other marginalized actors. The discussion will consider the role of behavioral economics, the impact of uncertainty and complexity and the influence of social networks on technology adoption decisions.

Table 2 - Digital tools and smallholder farmers: How can smallholder farmers benefit from digital tools? What are the barriers to access?

Digital tools and platforms—ranging from mobile apps for market information to precision agriculture technologies—offer significant opportunities for smallholder farmers. These tools can help farmers improve productivity, access markets and manage risks. However, barriers such as digital literacy, connectivity and cost can limit their adoption among smallholders. This table will discuss the potential benefits of digital tools for smallholder farmers, exploring successful examples and identifying the key barriers that need to be addressed. The conversation will also consider how digital tools can be designed to meet the specific needs of smallholders and how to ensure equitable access.

Table 3 - Integrating traditional knowledge in innovation: What role does traditional knowledge play in agricultural innovation? How can it be integrated with modern technologies?

Traditional knowledge, accumulated over generations, often provides valuable insights into sustainable agricultural practices and local environmental conditions. However, this knowledge is sometimes overlooked in the development of modern agricultural technologies. This table will explore how traditional knowledge can be integrated with new innovations, such as digital tools, to create context-appropriate solutions. The discussion will also consider the potential conflicts between traditional practices and modern technologies and how these can be reconciled to enhance both innovation and sustainability.

Table 4 - Policy, regulation and responsible innovation: What is the role of policy and regulation in ensuring responsible innovation in agriculture?

Technological innovations in agriculture bring both opportunities and risks, from increasing productivity to exacerbating inequalities or environmental harm. Effective policy and regulation are essential to guide the development and adoption of new technologies in a way that maximizes benefits while minimizing negative impacts. This table will discuss the role of governments and international bodies in creating frameworks that promote responsible innovation. Participants will consider how policies can support equitable access to new technologies, protect smallholders and consumers and ensure that innovations contribute to sustainability goals. The discussion will also explore the challenges of regulating rapidly evolving technologies and the need for adaptive, forward-looking policies.

Speakers: Luisa Müting, Sukanya Basu (University of Goettingen)

16:50 Closure